Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

Trait-based representation of diatom functional diversity in a plankton functional type model of the eutrophied southern North Sea

We introduce a trait-based description of diatom functional diversity to an existing plankton functional type (PFT) model, implemented for the eutrophied coastal ecosystem in the Southern Bight of the North Sea. The trait-based description represents a continuum of diatom species, each characterized by a distinct cell volume, and includes size dependence of four diatom traits: the maximum growth rate, the half-saturation constants for nutrient uptake, the photosynthetic efficiency, and the relative affinity of copepods for diatoms. Through competition under seasonally varying forcing, the fitness of each diatom varies throughout time, and the outcome of competition results in a changing community structure. The predicted seasonal change in mean cell volume of the community is supported by field observations: smaller diatoms, which are more competitive in terms of resource acquisition, prevail during the first spring bloom, whereas the summer bloom is dominated by larger species which better resist grazing. The size-based model is used to determine the ecological niche of diatoms in the area and identifies a range of viable sizes that matches observations. The general trade-off between small, competitive diatoms and large, grazing-resistant species is a convenient framework to study patterns in diatom functional diversity. PFT models and trait-based approaches constitute promising complementary tools to study community structure in marine ecosystems.

Long-term variability of the siphonophores Muggiaea atlantica and M. kochi in the Western English Channel

We investigated long-term variability of the calycophoran siphonophores Muggiaea atlantica and Muggiaea kochi in the Western English Channel (WEC) between 1930 and 2011. Our aims were to describe long-term changes in abundance and temporal distribution in relation to local environmental dynamics. In order to better understand mechanisms that regulate the species’ populations, we identified periods that were characteristic of in situ population growth and the environmental optima associated with these events. Our results show that between 1930 and the 1960s both M. atlantica and M. kochi were transient components of the WEC ecosystem. In the late 1960s M. atlantica, successfully established a resident population in the WEC, while the occurrence of M. kochi became increasingly sporadic. Once established as a resident species, the seasonal abundance and distribution of M. atlantica increased. Analysis of environmental conditions associated with in situ population growth revealed that temperature and prey were key determinants of the seasonal distribution and abundance of M. atlantica. Salinity was shown to have an indirect effect, likely representing a proxy for water circulation in the WEC. Anomalies in the seasonal cycle of salinity, indicating deviation from the usual circulation pattern in the WEC, were negatively associated with in situ growth, suggesting dispersal of the locally developing M. atlantica population. However, our findings identified complexity in the relationship between characteristics of the environment and M. atlantica variability. The transition from a period of transiency (1930–1968) to residency (1969–2011) was tentatively attributed to structural changes in the WEC ecosystem that occurred under the forcing of wider-scale hydroclimatic changes.

Ecological equivalence of species within phytoplankton functional groups

1.There are tens of thousands of species of phytoplankton found throughout the tree of life. Despite this diversity, phytoplankton are often aggregated into a few functional groups according to metabolic traits or biogeochemical role. We investigate the extent to which phytoplankton species dynamics are neutral within functional groups. 2.Seasonal dynamics in many regions of the ocean are known to affect phytoplankton at the functional group level leading to largely predictable patterns of seasonal succession. It is much more difficult to make general statements about the dynamics of individual species. 3.We use a 7 year time-series at station L4 in the Western English Channel with 57 diatom and 17 dinoflagellate species enumerated weekly to test if the abundance of diatom and dinoflagellate species vary randomly within their functional group envelope or if each species is driven uniquely by external factors. 4.We show that the total biomass of the diatom and dinoflagellate functional groups is well predicted by irradiance and temperature and quantify trait values governing the growth rate of both functional groups. The biomass dynamics of the functional groups are not neutral and each has their own distinct responses to environmental forcing. Compared to dinoflagellates, diatoms have faster growth rates, and grow faster under lower irradiance, cooler temperatures, and higher nutrient conditions. 5.The biomass of most species vary randomly within their functional group biomass envelope, most of the time. As a consequence, modelers will find it difficult to predict the biomass of most individual species. Our analysis supports the approach of using a single set of traits for a functional group and suggests that it should be possible to determine these traits from natural communities.

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

Factors governing the deep ventilation of the Red Sea

A variety of data based on hydrographic measurements, satellite observations, reanalysis databases, and meteorological observations are used to explore the interannual variability and factors governing the deep water formation in the northern Red Sea. Historical and recent hydrographic data consistently indicate that the ventilation of the near-bottom layer in the Red Sea is a robust feature of the thermohaline circulation. Dense water capable to reach the bottom layers of the Red Sea can be regularly produced mostly inside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. Occasionally, during colder than usual winters, deep water formation may also take place over coastal areas in the northernmost end of the open Red Sea just outside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. However, the origin as well as the amount of deep waters exhibit considerable interannual variability depending not only on atmospheric forcing but also on the water circulation over the northern Red Sea. Analysis of several recent winters shows that the strength of the cyclonic gyre prevailing in the northernmost part of the basin can effectively influence the sea surface temperature (SST) and intensify or moderate the winter surface cooling. Upwelling associated with periods of persistent gyre circulation lowers the SST over the northernmost part of the Red Sea and can produce colder than normal winter SST even without extreme heat loss by the sea surface. In addition, the occasional persistence of the cyclonic gyre feeds the surface layers of the northern Red Sea with nutrients, considerably increasing the phytoplankton biomass.

Impacts of Climate Modes on Air-Sea Heat Exchange in the Red Sea

The impacts of various climate modes on the Red Sea surface heat exchange are investigated using the MERRA reanalysis and the OAFlux satellite reanalysis datasets. Seasonality in the atmospheric forcing is also explored. Mode impacts peak during boreal winter [December–February (DJF)] with average anomalies of 12–18 W m−2 to be found in the northern Red Sea. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic–west Russia (EAWR) pattern, and the Indian monsoon index (IMI) exhibit the strongest influence on the air–sea heat exchange during the winter. In this season, the largest negative anomalies of about −30 W m−2 are associated with the EAWR pattern over the central part of the Red Sea. In other seasons, mode-related anomalies are considerably lower, especially during spring when the mode impacts are negligible. The mode impacts are strongest over the northern half of the Red Sea during winter and autumn. In summer, the southern half of the basin is strongly influenced by the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The winter mode–related anomalies are determined mostly by the latent heat flux component, while in summer the shortwave flux is also important. The influence of the modes on the Red Sea is found to be generally weaker than on the neighboring Mediterranean basin.