The carbonate system of the NW European shelf: sensitivity and model validation

The ocean plays an important role in regulating the climate, acting as a sink for carbon dioxide, perturbing the carbonate system and resulting in a slow decrease of seawater pH. Understanding the dynamics of the carbonate system in shelf sea regions is necessary to evaluate the impact of Ocean Acidification (OA) in these societally important ecosystems. Complex hydrodynamic and ecosystem coupled models provide a method of capturing the significant heterogeneity of these areas. However rigorous validation is essential to properly assess the reliability of such models. The coupled model POLCOMS–ERSEM has been implemented in the North Western European shelf with a new parameterization for alkalinity explicitly accounting for riverine inputs and the influence of biological processes. The model has been validated in a like with like comparison with North Sea data from the CANOBA dataset. The model shows good to reasonable agreement for the principal variables, physical (temperature and salinity), biogeochemical (nutrients) and carbonate system (dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity), but simulation of the derived variables, pH and pCO2, are not yet fully satisfactory. This high uncertainty is attributed mostly to riverine forcing and primary production. This study suggests that the model is a useful tool to provide information on Ocean Acidification scenarios, but uncertainty on pH and pCO2 needs to be reduced, particularly when impacts of OA on ecosystem functions are included in the model systems.

Coccolithophore surface distributions in the North Atlantic and their modulation of the air-sea flux of CO2 from 10 years of satellite Earth observation data

Coccolithophores are the primary oceanic phytoplankton responsible for the production of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). These climatically important plankton play a key role in the oceanic carbon cycle as a major contributor of carbon to the open ocean carbonate pump (similar to 50 %) and their calcification can affect the atmosphere-to-ocean (air-sea) uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) through increasing the seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO(2)). Here we document variations in the areal extent of surface blooms of the globally important coccolithophore, Emiliania huxleyi, in the North Atlantic over a 10-year period (1998-2007), using Earth observation data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). We calculate the annual mean sea surface areal coverage of E. huxleyi in the North Atlantic to be 474 000 +/- 104 000 km(2), which results in a net CaCO3 carbon (CaCO3-C) production of 0.14-1.71 Tg CaCO3-C per year. However, this surface coverage (and, thus, net production) can fluctuate inter-annually by -54/+81% about the mean value and is strongly correlated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate oscillation index (r = 0.75, p < 0.02). Our analysis evaluates the spatial extent over which the E. huxleyi blooms in the North Atlantic can increase the pCO(2) and, thus, decrease the localised air-sea flux of atmospheric CO2. In regions where the blooms are prevalent, the average reduction in the monthly air-sea CO2 flux can reach 55%. The maximum reduction of the monthly air-sea CO2 flux in the time series is 155 %. This work suggests that the high variability, frequency and distribution of these calcifying plankton and their impact on pCO(2) should be considered if we are to fully understand the variability of the North Atlantic air-to-sea flux of CO2. We estimate that these blooms can reduce the annual N. Atlantic net sink atmospheric CO2 by between 3-28 %.

The Russell Cycle. An update and review of trends in zooplankton and fish larvae off Plymouth 1924-2009. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 24

Regular plankton sampling off Plymouth by the Marine Biological Association (MBA) has been carried out from the early 1900s. Much of the sample analysis and description of the results was carried out by Sir Frederick Russell and Professor Alan Southward (AJS), the latter having completed the organisation and transfer of the paper records to digital files. The current authors have transferred the main data files of AJS on zooplankton and fish larvae to the MBA long-term database (including various editing and checking against original analysis records and published data) together with adding the data for 2002-2009. In this report the updated time-series are reviewed in the context of earlier work, particularly with respect to the Russell Cycle. It is not intended as an exhaustive analysis. Brief details of the sampling and comments on data processing are given in an appendix.

Aquatic Life Cycle Strategies: Survival in a variable environment. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 6

In a rapidly changing world it is essential that we should understand the factors controlling the sustainability of ecosystems. In aquatic ecosystems, both sensitivity and recoverability are influenced strongly by the life cycles of the organisms concerned. The response of individual species to change and their chances of survival in a variable environment can be affected dramatically by the timing and location of disturbances relative to their natural rhythms of fertilisation, dispersal and development. This book illustrates the wide range of issues that must be addressed to understand such relationships. Its purpose is to consider those aspects of life history that make aquatic organisms especially susceptible to (or adaptable to) changing environments -and hence to discuss links between impacts on individuals and the consequent effects on populations and communities.

Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea‐level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up ∼40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean ‘carbon pumps’ (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice–ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.