Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes

Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components. The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.

Drivers and effects of Karenia mikimotoi blooms in the western English Channel

Naturally occurring red tides and harmful algal blooms (HABs) are of increasing importance in the coastal environment and can have dramatic effects on coastal benthic and epipelagic communities worldwide. Such blooms are often unpredictable, irregular or of short duration, and thus determining the underlying driving factors is problematic. The dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi is an HAB, commonly found in the western English Channel and thought to be responsible for occasional mass finfish and benthic mortalities. We analysed a 19-year coastal time series of phytoplankton biomass to examine the seasonality and interannual variability of K. mikimotoi in the western English Channel and determine both the primary environmental drivers of these blooms as well as the effects on phytoplankton productivity and oxygen conditions. We observed high variability in timing and magnitude of K. mikimotoi blooms, with abundances reaching >1000 cells mL�1 at 10 m depth, inducing up to a 12-fold increase in the phytoplankton carbon content of the water column. No long-term trends in the timing or magnitude of K. mikimotoi abundance were evident from the data. Key driving factors were identified as persistent summertime rainfall and the resultant input of low-salinity high-nutrient river water. The largest bloom in 2009 was associated with highest annual primary production and led to considerable oxygen depletion at depth, most likely as a result of enhanced biological breakdown of bloom material; however, this oxygen depletion may not affect zooplankton. Our data suggests that K. mikimotoi blooms are not only a key and consistent feature of western English Channel productivity, but importantly can potentially be predicted from knowledge of rainfall or river discharge.