The CPR Survey (1948-1997): a gridded database browser of plankton abundance in the North Sea.

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey provides a unique multi- decadal dataset on the abundance of plankton in the North Sea and North Atlantic and is one of only a few monitoring programmes operating at a large spatio- temporal scale. The results of all samples analysed from the survey since 1946 are stored on an Access Database at the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS) in Plymouth. The database is large, containing more than two million records (~80 million data points, if zero results are added) for more than 450 taxonomic entities. An open data policy is operated by SAHFOS. However, the data are not on-line and so access by scientists and others wishing to use the results is not interactive. Requests for data are dealt with by the Database Manager. To facilitate access to the data from the North Sea, which is an area of high research interest, a selected set of data for key phytoplankton and zooplankton species has been processed in a form that makes them readily available on CD for research and other applications. A set of MATLAB tools has been developed to provide an interpolated spatio-temporal description of plankton sampled by the CPR in the North Sea, as well as easy and fast access to users in the form of a browser. Using geostatistical techniques, plankton abundance values have been interpolated on a regular grid covering the North Sea. The grid is established on centres of 1 degree longitude x 0.5 degree latitude (~32 x 30 nautical miles). Based on a monthly temporal resolution over a fifty-year period (1948-1997), 600 distribution maps have been produced for 54 zooplankton species, and 480 distribution maps for 57 phytoplankton species over the shorter period 1958-1997. The gridded database has been developed in a user-friendly form and incorporates, as a package on a CD, a set of options for visualisation and interpretation, including the facility to plot maps for selected species by month, year, groups of months or years, long-term means or as time series and contour plots. This study constitutes the first application of an easily accessed and interactive gridded database of plankton abundance in the North Sea. As a further development the MATLAB browser is being converted to a user- friendly Windows-compatible format (WinCPR) for release on CD and via the Web in 2003.

Pulses in the eastern margin current and warmer water off the north west European shelf linked to North Sea ecosystem changes

The North Sea ecosystem has recently undergone dramatic changes, observed as altered biomass of individual species spanning a range of life forms from algae to birds, with evidence for an approximate doubling in the abundance of both phytoplankton and benthos as part of a regime shift after 1987. Remarkably, these changes, in part recorded in the Phytoplankton Colour Index of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, are notable as episodic shifts occurring in 1988/89 and 1998 imposed on a gradual decadal trend. These biological events are shown to be a response to coincident changes in oceanic input and water temperature. Geostrophic transports have been calculated from a hydrographic section across the Rockall Trough, and a time series of seasurface temperature derived from satellite observations. The 2 pulses of oceanic incursion into the North Sea in circa 1988 and 1998 coincided with strong northward advection of anomalously warm water at the edge of the continental shelf.

A regime shift in the North Sea circa 1988 linked to changes in the North Sea horse mackerel fishery

After 1987, Phytoplankton Colour (a visual estimate of chlorophyll) measured on samples taken by the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) in the North Sea increased substantially, both in level and seasonal extent, compared to earlier years since 1946. Many species of phytoplankton and zooplankton showed marked changes in abundance at about the same time. These events coincided with a large increase in catches of the western stock of the horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus L.) in the northern North Sea reflecting a northerly expansion of the stock along the shelf edge from the Bay of Biscay to the North Sea after 1987. Using a 3D hydrodynamic model, with input from measured wind parameters, monthly transport of oceanic water into the North Sea has been calculated for the period 1976–1994, integrated for a section from Orkney to Shetland to Norway. A substantial increase in oceanic inflow occurred in the winter months, December to March, from 1988. Higher sea surface temperatures were also measured after 1987 especially in spring and summer months. These biological and physical events may be a response to observed changes in pressure distribution over the North Atlantic. From 1988 onwards, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores, increased to the highest positive level observed in this century. Positive NAO anomalies are associated with stronger and more southerly tracks of the westerly winds and higher temperatures in western Europe. These changing wind distributions may have led to an increase in the northerly advection of water along the western edge of the European shelf and may have assisted the migration of the horse mackerel. This study is possibly a unique demonstration of a correlation between three different trophic levels of a marine ecosystem and hydrographic and atmospheric events at decadal and regional scales. The results emphasise the importance of maintaining into the future long term programmes such as the CPR.

Biodiversity of North Atlantic and North Sea calanoid copepods

Spatial patterns in pelagic biodiversity are the result of factors acting from a global to a local scale. The global patterns have been studied intensively using taxa such as foraminifera and euphausiids. However, these studies do not allow direct comparisons of neritic and oceanic regions or examination of relationships between local and regional patterns of pelagic diversity. Here we present a map of the diversity of calanoid copepods, a key planktonic group, summarising 40 yr of continuous monthly investigations in the North Atlantic and North Sea. The high number of samples (168 162) allowed mesoscale patterns in diversity to be detected for the first time at an ocean-basin level. Our results demonstrate pronounced local spatial variability in planktonic diversity and refine previous global studies at a lower resolution. They form a baseline at which long-term changes in planktonic diversity can be better assessed and ecosystem management plans implemented.

North Atlantic and North Sea climate change: curl up, shut down, NAO and ocean colour

The strength of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) (based on sea-surface elevation sloped derived from altimeter data) is correlated with westerly winds (based on North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index data over a nine year period [1992-2002] with 108 monthly values). The data time window includes the major change in climate forcing over the last 100 years (1995 to 1996). It is shown that the NAO Index can be used for early earning of system failure for the NAC. The correlation response or early warning time scale for western Europe and south England is six months. The decay scale for the NAC and Subtropical Gyre circulation is estimated as three years. Longer period altimeter elevation/circulation changes are discussed. The sea-surface temperature (SST) response of the North Sea to negative and positive NAO conditions is examined. The overall temperature response for the central North Sea to NAO index forcing, reflecting wind induced inflow, shelf circulation and local climate forcing, is similar to 5 months. In years with strong North Atlantic winter wind induced inflow, under marked NAO positive conditions, mean temperatures ( similar to 10.5 degree C) are about 1 degree C warmer than under negative conditions. In 1996 under extreme negative winter NAO conditions, the North Sea circulation stopped, conditions near the Dogger Bank became more continentally influenced and the winter (March) temperature fell to 3.1 degree C whereas in 1995 under NAO positive winter conditions the minimum temperature was 6.4 degree C (February). Seasonal advance of North Atlantic and North Sea temperature is derived in relation to temperature change. Temperature change and monthly NAO Index are discussed with respect to phytoplankton blooms, chlorophyll-a measurements, ocean colour data and the anomalous north-eastern Atlantic 2002 spring/summer bloom SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations.

North Sea Ecosystem: Status Report

The North Sea is a dynamic large marine ecosystem which is bordered by a dense coastal population, contains a productive oil and gas province, has a dense shipping network and has one of the most productive fisheries in the world. An assessment of the state of health of the North Sea was initiated in 1987 as part of a developing series of international initiatives at Ministerial level to address concerns over the impact of these activities on the marine ecosystem. Four North Sea Ministerial Conferences (1984, 1987, 1990, 1995) and an Intermediate Ministerial Meeting (1993) have been held to date to develop a harmonized approach to the sustainable management of the North Sea. In 1988 at the request of Ministers a North Sea Task Force was established to co-ordinate work leading to the production of a Quality Status Report (QSR) on the North Sea in December 1993. In recognition of the large geographical and ecological diversity exhibited, a sub-regional approach was adopted and a total of 13 sub-regional assessment reports were produced to a common protocol. The Task Force established a five-year plan to co-ordinate research, monitoring and modelling and other special topics in the preparations for the QSR. As part of this exercise a ‘Monitoring Master Plan’ was drawn up to provide for the first time reliable spatial information on the distribution of chemical contaminants and biological effects throughout the North Sea. The Task Force was a unique structure in international collaboration with a fixed remit that ended in December 1993. It was successful in bringing together many diverse organisations with interests in the North Sea and co-ordinated to a tight timetable the production of the QSR. The experiences gained are now being applied to the whole north east Atlantic under a new OSPAR Convention and have wide application to other Large Marine Ecosystems.

An overview of plankton ecology in the North Sea

The purpose of this report is to give an overview of plankton ecology in the North Sea, and the processes that effect it, as derived from current research. The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation has extensive data for the North Sea area, and other sources have also been used to provide information for this report. Shortfalls in current research have also been highlighted. The information contained herein is to be contributed towards an information base for the Strategic Environmental Assessment. The North Sea is an extension of the North Atlantic that has an area of 574,980 km2. The deepest area is off the coast of Norway (660m), with a number of shallow areas, such as the Dogger Bank (15m). The North Sea represents a large source of hydrocarbons that have been exploited since the early 1970s. The aim of this study is to provide the Department of Trade and Industry with biological data on the planktonic community of the North Sea, as a contribution towards the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA 2). An overview of phyto- and zoo- plankton community composition, plankton blooms, Calanus, mero-, pico- and megaplankton, sensitivity to disturbance / contamination, phytodetritus and vertical fluxes and the resting stages of phytoplankton is made using the results of the survey database. Additional published literature has also been used, and gaps in available data have been highlighted. 1.3 The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey provides a unique long-term dataset of plankton abundance in the North Atlantic and North Sea (Warner and Hays 1994). The survey has been running for almost 70 years, using ‘ships of opportunity’ to tow CPRs on regular, and incidental routes, sampling at a depth of 10 m. Each sample represents 18 km of tow and approximately 3 m3 of filtered seawater. Over 400 taxa of plankton are routinely identified by a team of taxonomists. The samples are also compared to colour charts to give an indication of ‘greenness’, which provides a visual index of chlorophyll value. CPRs have been towed for over 4 million nautical miles, accumulating almost 200,000 samples. The design of the CPR has remained virtually unchanged since sampling started, thus providing a consistency of sampling that provides good historical comparisons. By systematically monitoring the plankton over a period, changes in abundance and long term trends can be distinguished. From this baseline data, inferences can be made, particularly concerning climate change and potentialanthropogenic impacts.

Long-term changes in the pelagos, benthos and fisheries of the North Sea

Pronounced changes have occurred in the fisheries, plankton and benthos of the North Sea over the last five decades. Attribution of the relative contribution of anthropogenic versus natural hydrometeorological modulation to these changes is still unclear. As a background a summary history of our understanding of the state of health of the North Sea is outlined. We then focus on two contrasting periods in the North Sea, one between 1978-82 (cold) and the other post 1987 (warm) when pronounced alterations in many ecosystem characteristics occurred. The scale of the changes in the second of these periods is sufficiently large and wide ranging for it to have been termed a regime shift. A combination of local, regional and far field hydrometeorological forcing, and in particular variability in oceanic inflow, is believed to be responsible for the observed changes. Finally attention is drawn to the poor status of North Sea fish stocks where 7 stocks are documented as being fished outside safe biological limits. This situation is primarily believed to be a consequence of overfishing, but may have been exacerbated by environmental change.

A change in the zooplankton of the central North Sea (55 degree to 58 degree N): A possible consequence of changes in the benthos

The mesozooplankton taken in continuous plankton recorder samples from the Central North Sea has changed from being numerically dominated by holoplanktonic calanoid copepod species from 1958 to the late 1970s to a situation where pluteus larvae of echinoid and ophiuroid echinoderms have been more abundant than any single holoplanktonic species in the 1980s and early 1990s. The abundance of the echinoderm larvae as a proportion of the zooplankton taken in the samples has followed a continuous increasing trend over the Dogger Bank, but off the eastern coast of northern England and southern Scotland the increase did not become obvious until the 1980s. This trend is consistent with reported increases in abundance of the macrobenthos. It is proposed that changes in the benthos have influenced the composition of the plankton.

Climate-related increases in jellyfish frequency suggest a more gelatinous future for the North Sea

Data obtained since 1958 from the continuous plankton recorder show an increasing occurrence of jellyfish in the central North Sea that is positively related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic inflow to the northern North Sea. Since 1970, jellyfish frequency has been also significantly negatively correlated with mean annual pH, independent of NAO trends. Jellyfish frequency increased in the mid-1980s, coincident with the reported regime shift in the North Sea and tracking trends in phytoplankton color. As models produced under all climate-change scenarios indicate a move toward a positive NAO, and pH of the oceans is predicted to decrease with rising CO2, we suggest that jellyfish frequency will increase over the next 100 yr.

Climate effects and benthic-pelagic coupling in the North Sea

The North Sea is one of the most biologically productive ecosystems in the world and supports important fisheries. Climate-induced changes occurred in the pelagic ecosystems of the North Sea during the 1980s. These changes, which have been observed from phytoplankton to fish and among permanent (holoplankton) and temporary (meroplankton) plankton species, have resulted in alterations in plankton community composition and seasonality. Until now, the effects of climate-driven changes on biological linkages between pelagic and benthic ecosystems have not been examined. The present study indicates that changes in benthic organisms could have a profound effect on the trophodynamics of the pelagos. We demonstrate this by analyses of a long-term time series of North Sea plankton and sea surface temperature data. We discover that pronounced changes in the North Sea meroplankton, mainly related to an increased abundance and spatial distribution of the larvae of a benthic echinoderm, Echinocardium cordatum, result primarily from a stepwise increase in sea temperature after 1987 that has caused warmer conditions to occur earlier in the year than previously. Key stages of reproduction in E. cordatum, gametogenesis and spawning, appear to be influenced by winter and spring sea temperature and their larval development is affected by the quantity and quality of their phytoplankton food. Our analyses suggest that a new thermal regime in the North Sea in winter and spring may have benefited reproduction and survival in this benthic species. As a result, E. cordatum may be altering the trophodynamics of the summer pelagic ecosystem through competition between its larvae and holozooplankton taxa.

Increasing prevalence of the marine cladoceran Penilia avirostris (Dana, 1852) in the North Sea

Rising sea surface temperatures in the North Sea have had consequential effects on not only indigenous plankton species, but also on the possibility of successful colonisation of the area by invasive plankton species. Previous studies have noted the introduction and integration into the plankton community of various phytoplankton species, but establishment of zooplankton organisms in the North Sea is less well-documented. Examining continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data and zooplankton results from the Helgoland Roads study, the autumn of 1999 witnessed the occurrence of the marine cladoceran Penilia avirostris in large numbers in the North Sea. The rapid appearance of the species corresponded with exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Since 1999, the species has become a regular feature of the autumnal zooplankton community of the North Sea. In 2002 and 2003, the species occurred in greater abundance than recorded before. It is suggested that increased autumn SSTs have proved favourable to P. avirostris, with warmer conditions contributing to the success of the species’ resting eggs and aiding colonisation.