Coccolithophore bloom detection in the north east Atlantic using SeaWiFS: Algorithm description, application and sensitivity analysis

Coccolithophores are the largest source of calcium carbonate in the oceans and are considered to play an important role in oceanic carbon cycles. Current methods to detect the presence of coccolithophore blooms from Earth observation data often produce high numbers of false positives in shelf seas and coastal zones due to the spectral similarity between coccolithophores and other suspended particulates. Current methods are therefore unable to characterise the bloom events in shelf seas and coastal zones, despite the importance of these phytoplankton in the global carbon cycle. A novel approach to detect the presence of coccolithophore blooms from Earth observation data is presented. The method builds upon previous optical work and uses a statistical framework to combine spectral, spatial and temporal information to produce maps of coccolithophore bloom extent. Validation and verification results for an area of the north east Atlantic are presented using an in situ database (N = 432) and all available SeaWiFS data for 2003 and 2004. Verification results show that the approach produces a temporal seasonal signal consistent with biological studies of these phytoplankton. Validation using the in situ coccolithophore cell count database shows a high correct recognition rate of 80% and a low false-positive rate of 0.14 (in comparison to 63% and 0.34 respectively for the established, purely spectral approach). To guide its broader use, a full sensitivity analysis for the algorithm parameters is presented.

Variations in GDGT distributions through the water column in the South East Atlantic Ocean

The TetraEther indeX of 86 carbon atoms (TEX86) temperature proxy is widely used in reconstructions of past sea surface temperature. Most current calibrations are based on surface sediment distributions of the glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids (GDGTs) that comprise TEX86 and assume that these GDGTs are exported from the upper mixed layer. However, GDGT export from deeper waters could impact sedimentary GDGT distributions and therefore TEX86 paleothermometry. Here we examine GDGT distributions in suspended particulate matter (SPM) and underlying sediments collected from the Southeast Atlantic Ocean. Our results reveal different GDGT distributions - specifically the ratio between GDGTs bearing 2 vs. 3 cyclopentyl moieties, [2/3] ratios - between surface, subsurface (>50-200 m) and deep water (>200 m) SPM, which suggests the occurrence of in situ (deep) production that is not apparent when considering TEX86. The GDGT distributions in sediments match those of subsurface waters rather than surface waters, suggesting that they have not been preferentially derived from the upper mixed layer; this is consistent with GDGT abundances being highest in shallow subsurface SPM (˜100 to 200 m). It remains unclear what governs the different [2/3] ratios throughout the water column, but it is likely related to a combination of temperature and thaumarchaeotal community structure.

Long-term annual primary production in the Ulleung Basin as a biological hot spot in the East/Japan Sea

Although the Ulleung Basin is an important biological hot spot in East/Japan Sea (hereafter the East Sea), very limited knowledge for seasonal and annual variations in the primary productivity exists. In this study, a recent decadal trend of primary production in the Ulleung Basin was analyzed based on MODIS-derived monthly primary production for a better annual production budget. Based on the MODIS-derived primary production, the mean daily primary productivity was 766.8 mg C m-2 d-1 (SD=+/- 196.7 mg C m-2 d-1) and the annual primary productivity was 280.2 g C m-2 yr-1 (SD=+/- 14.9 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Ulleung Basin during the study period. The monthly contributions of primary production were not largely variable among different months, and a relatively small interannual production variability was also observed in the Ulleung Basin, which indicates that the Ulleung Basin is a sustaining biologically productive region called as hot spot in the East Sea. However, a significant recent decline in the annual primary production was observed in the Ulleung Basin after 2006. Although no strong possibilities were found in this study, the current warming sea surface temperature and a negative phase PDO index were suggested for the recent declining primary production. For a better understanding of subsequent effects on marine ecosystems, more intensive interdisciplinary field studies will be required in the Ulleung Basin.

Ecological Relations Between the Herring and the Plankton off The North-East Coast of England

I. 430 plankton samples, which were taken by several herring drifters using the Continuous Plankton Recorder in the Shields fishing area during the summer seasons of 1931 to 1933, are analysed to show the main changes in the plankton during those seasons. 2. A comparison is made between the proportions of the different zooplankton organisms found in the plankton and the proportions of these recorded by Savage (1937) in the stomachs of herring obtained from drifters working in the same area and during the same time. The comparisons are made for 29 ten-day periods in the seasons 1931 to 1933, and in addition, for 6 ten-day periods relating to a single drifter which obtained both plankton and stomach samples at the same time in 1932. 3. The comparisons in 2 provide evidence that the herring feeds by selecting certain organisms by individual acts of capture and not by swimming open-mouthed to strain out the plankton indiscriminately: (a) Calanus and Temora in the stomachs either correspond fairly closely to the proportions in the plankton or they may be in very much higher proportions. The latter is always true regarding Anomalocera. (b) Acartia, Oithona, Cladocera and Lamellibranch larvae are always in larger proportions in the plankton than in the stomachs; this applies also to Centropages with two insignificant exceptions. (c) There is a close correspondence between the numbers of Limacina and Sagitta in the plankton and stomachs in the latter half of the 1931 season, but not during 1932 and 1933, when the numbers in the stomachs were insignificant ; during the former period there was a great scarcity of Calanus in the plankton.

Basking sharks and oceanographic fronts: quantifying associations in the north‐east Atlantic

Understanding the mechanisms linking oceanographic processes and marine vertebrate habitat use is critical to effective management of populations of conservation concern. The basking shark Cetorhinus maximus has been shown to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transitions between water masses – to exploit foraging opportunities resulting from aggregation of zooplankton. However, the scale, significance and variability of these observed associations have not yet been established. Here, we quantify the influence of mesoscale (10s – 100s km) frontal activity on habitat use over timescales of weeks to months. We use animal-mounted archival tracking with composite front mapping via Earth Observation (EO) remote sensing to provide an oceanographic context to individual shark movements. We investigate levels of association with fronts occurring over two spatio-temporal scales, (i) broad-scale seasonally persistent frontal zones and (ii) contemporaneous mesoscale thermal and chl-a fronts. Using random walk simulations and logistic regression within an iterative generalised linear mixed modelling (GLMM) framework, we find that seasonal front frequency is a significant predictor of shark presence. Temporally-matched oceanographic metrics also indicate that sharks demonstrate a preference for productive regions, and associate with contemporaneous thermal and chl-a fronts more frequently than could be expected at random. Moreover, we highlight the importance of cross-frontal temperature change and persistence, which appear to interact to affect the degree of prey aggregation along thermal fronts. These insights have clear implications for understanding the preferred habitats of basking sharks in the context of anthropogenic threat management and marine spatial planning in the northeast Atlantic.

Basking sharks and oceanographic fronts: quantifying associations in the north-east Atlantic

Understanding the mechanisms linking oceanographic processes and marine vertebrate habitat use is critical to effective management of populations of conservation concern. The basking shark Cetorhinus maximus has been shown to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transitions between water masses – to exploit foraging opportunities resulting from aggregation of zooplankton. However, the scale, significance and variability of these observed associations have not yet been established. Here, we quantify the influence of mesoscale (10s – 100s km) frontal activity on habitat use over timescales of weeks to months. We use animal-mounted archival tracking with composite front mapping via Earth Observation (EO) remote sensing to provide an oceanographic context to individual shark movements. We investigate levels of association with fronts occurring over two spatio-temporal scales, (i) broad-scale seasonally persistent frontal zones and (ii) contemporaneous mesoscale thermal and chl-a fronts. Using random walk simulations and logistic regression within an iterative generalised linear mixed modelling (GLMM) framework, we find that seasonal front frequency is a significant predictor of shark presence. Temporally-matched oceanographic metrics also indicate that sharks demonstrate a preference for productive regions, and associate with contemporaneous thermal and chl-a fronts more frequently than could be expected at random. Moreover, we highlight the importance of cross-frontal temperature change and persistence, which appear to interact to affect the degree of prey aggregation along thermal fronts. These insights have clear implications for understanding the preferred habitats of basking sharks in the context of anthropogenic threat management and marine spatial planning in the northeast Atlantic.

Basking sharks and oceanographic fronts: quantifying associations in the north-east Atlantic

Understanding the mechanisms linking oceanographic processes and marine vertebrate habitat use is critical to effective management of populations of conservation concern. The basking shark Cetorhinus maximus has been shown to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transitions between water masses – to exploit foraging opportunities resulting from aggregation of zooplankton. However, the scale, significance and variability of these observed associations have not yet been established. Here, we quantify the influence of mesoscale (10s – 100s km) frontal activity on habitat use over timescales of weeks to months. We use animal-mounted archival tracking with composite front mapping via Earth Observation (EO) remote sensing to provide an oceanographic context to individual shark movements. We investigate levels of association with fronts occurring over two spatio-temporal scales, (i) broad-scale seasonally persistent frontal zones and (ii) contemporaneous mesoscale thermal and chl-a fronts. Using random walk simulations and logistic regression within an iterative generalised linear mixed modelling (GLMM) framework, we find that seasonal front frequency is a significant predictor of shark presence. Temporally-matched oceanographic metrics also indicate that sharks demonstrate a preference for productive regions, and associate with contemporaneous thermal and chl-a fronts more frequently than could be expected at random. Moreover, we highlight the importance of cross-frontal temperature change and persistence, which appear to interact to affect the degree of prey aggregation along thermal fronts. These insights have clear implications for understanding the preferred habitats of basking sharks in the context of anthropogenic threat management and marine spatial planning in the northeast Atlantic.

Evaluating machine-learning techniques for recruitment forecasting of seven North East Atlantic fish species

The effect of different factors (spawning biomass, environmental conditions) on recruitment is a subject of great importance in the management of fisheries, recovery plans and scenario exploration. In this study, recently proposed supervised classification techniques, tested by the machine-learning community, are applied to forecast the recruitment of seven fish species of North East Atlantic (anchovy, sardine, mackerel, horse mackerel, hake, blue whiting and albacore), using spawning, environmental and climatic data. In addition, the use of the probabilistic flexible naive Bayes classifier (FNBC) is proposed as modelling approach in order to reduce uncertainty for fisheries management purposes. Those improvements aim is to improve probability estimations of each possible outcome (low, medium and high recruitment) based in kernel density estimation, which is crucial for informed management decision making with high uncertainty. Finally, a comparison between goodness-of-fit and generalization power is provided, in order to assess the reliability of the final forecasting models. It is found that in most cases the proposed methodology provides useful information for management whereas the case of horse mackerel is an example of the limitations of the approach. The proposed improvements allow for a better probabilistic estimation of the different scenarios, i.e. to reduce the uncertainty in the provided forecasts.