ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels

The European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) is one of the most established ecosystem models for the lower trophic levels of the marine food web in the scientific literature. Since its original development in the early nineties it has evolved significantly from a coastal ecosystem model for the North Sea to a generic tool for ecosystem simulations from shelf seas to the global ocean. The current model release contains all essential elements for the pelagic and benthic parts of the marine ecosystem, including the microbial food web, the carbonate system, and calcification. Its distribution is accompanied by a testing framework enabling the analysis of individual parts of the model. Here we provide a detailed mathematical description of all ERSEM components along with case studies of mesocosm-type simulations, water column implementations, and a brief example of a full-scale application for the north-western European shelf. Validation against in situ data demonstrates the capability of the model to represent the marine ecosystem in contrasting environments.

Predictable hydrodynamic conditions explain temporal variations in the density of benthic foraging seabirds in a tidal stream environment

Tidal stream turbines could have several direct impacts upon pursuit-diving seabirds foraging within tidal stream environments (mean horizontal current speeds > 2 ms−1), including collisions and displacement. Understanding how foraging seabirds respond to temporally variable but predictable hydrodynamic conditions immediately around devices could identify when interactions between seabirds and devices are most likely to occur; information which would quantify the magnitude of potential impacts, and also facilitate the development of suitable mitigation measures. This study uses shore-based observational surveys and Finite Volume Community Ocean Model outputs to test whether temporally predictable hydrodynamic conditions (horizontal current speeds, water elevation, turbulence) influenced the density of foraging black guillemots Cepphus grylle and European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis in a tidal stream environment in Orkney, United Kingdom, during the breeding season. These species are particularly vulnerable to interactions with devices due to their tendency to exploit benthic and epi-benthic prey on or near the seabed. The density of both species decreased as a function of horizontal current speeds, whereas the density of black guillemots also decreased as a function of water elevation. These relationships could be linked to higher energetic costs of dives in particularly fast horizontal current speeds (>3 ms−1) and deeper water. Therefore, interactions between these species and moving components seem unlikely at particularly high horizontal current speeds. Combining this information, with that on the rotation rates of moving components at lower horizontal current speeds, could be used to assess collision risk in this site during breeding seasons. It is also likely that moderating any device operation during both lowest water elevation and lowest horizontal current speeds could reduce the risk of collisions for these species in this site during this season. The approaches used in this study could have useful applications within Environmental Impact Assessments, and should be considered when assessing and mitigating negative impacts from specific devices within development sites.

Air-sea fluxes of CO2 and CH4 from the Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory on the south-west coast of the UK

We present air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), momentum, and sensible heat measured by the eddy covariance method from the recently established Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory (PPAO) on the south-west coast of the United Kingdom. Measurements from the south-westerly direction (open water sector) were made at three different sampling heights (approximately 15, 18, and 27m above mean sea level, a.m.s.l.), each from a different period during 2014–2015. At sampling heights ≥18ma.m.s.l., measured fluxes of momentum and sensible heat demonstrate reasonable (≤ ±20% in the mean) agreement with transfer rates over the open ocean. This confirms the suitability of PPAO for air–sea exchange measurements in shelf regions. Covariance air–sea CO2 fluxes demonstrate high temporal variability. Air-to-sea transport of CO2 declined from spring to summer in both years, coinciding with the breakdown of the spring phytoplankton bloom. We report, to the best of our knowledge, the first successful eddy covariance measurements of CH4 emissions from a marine environment. Higher sea-to-air CH4 fluxes were observed during rising tides (20±3; 38±3; 29±6 μmolem-2 d-1 at 15, 18, 27ma.m.s.l.) than during falling tides (14±2; 22±2; 21±5 μmolem-2 d-1), consistent with an elevated CH4 source from an estuarine outflow driven by local tidal circulation. These fluxes are a few times higher than the predicted CH4 emissions over the open ocean and are significantly lower than estimates from other aquatic CH4 hotspots (e.g. polar regions, freshwater). Finally, we found the detection limit of the air–sea CH4 flux by eddy covariance to be 20 μmolem-2 d-1 over hourly timescales (4 μmolem-2 d-1 over 24 h).

Air-sea fluxes of CO2 and CH4 from the Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory on the south-west coast of the UK

We present air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), momentum, and sensible heat measured by the eddy covariance method from the recently established Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory (PPAO) on the south-west coast of the United Kingdom. Measurements from the south-westerly direction (open water sector) were made at three different sampling heights (approximately 15, 18, and 27m above mean sea level, a.m.s.l.), each from a different period during 2014–2015. At sampling heights ≥18ma.m.s.l., measured fluxes of momentum and sensible heat demonstrate reasonable (≤ ±20% in the mean) agreement with transfer rates over the open ocean. This confirms the suitability of PPAO for air–sea exchange measurements in shelf regions. Covariance air–sea CO2 fluxes demonstrate high temporal variability. Air-to-sea transport of CO2 declined from spring to summer in both years, coinciding with the breakdown of the spring phytoplankton bloom. We report, to the best of our knowledge, the first successful eddy covariance measurements of CH4 emissions from a marine environment. Higher sea-to-air CH4 fluxes were observed during rising tides (20±3; 38±3; 29±6 μmolem-2 d-1 at 15, 18, 27ma.m.s.l.) than during falling tides (14±2; 22±2; 21±5 μmolem-2 d-1), consistent with an elevated CH4 source from an estuarine outflow driven by local tidal circulation. These fluxes are a few times higher than the predicted CH4 emissions over the open ocean and are significantly lower than estimates from other aquatic CH4 hotspots (e.g. polar regions, freshwater). Finally, we found the detection limit of the air–sea CH4 flux by eddy covariance to be 20 μmolem-2 d-1 over hourly timescales (4 μmolem-2 d-1 over 24 h).

Unstructured grid modelling of offshore wind farm impacts on seasonally stratified shelf seas

Shelf seas comprise approximately 7% of the world’s oceans and host enormous economic activity. Development of energy installations (e.g. Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs), tidal turbines) in response to increased demand for renewable energy requires a careful analysis of potential impacts. Recent remote sensing observations have identified kilometrescale impacts from OWFs. Existing modelling evaluating monopile impacts has fallen into two camps: small-scale models with individually resolved turbines looking at local effects; and large-scale analyses but with sub-grid scale turbine parameterisations. This work straddles both scales through a 3D unstructured grid model (FVCOM): wind turbine monopiles in the eastern Irish Sea are explicitly described in the grid whilst the overall grid domain covers the south-western UK shelf. Localised regions of decreased velocity extend up to 250 times the monopile diameter away from the monopile. Shelf-wide, the amplitude of the M2 tidal constituent increases by up to 7%. The turbines enhance localised vertical mixing which decreases seasonal stratification. The spatial extent of this extends well beyond the turbines into the surrounding seas. With significant expansion of OWFs on continental shelves, this work highlights the importance of how OWFs may impact coastal (e.g. increased flooding risk) and offshore (e.g. stratification and nutrient cycling) areas.

Unstructured grid modelling of offshore wind farm impacts on seasonally stratified shelf seas

Shelf seas comprise approximately 7% of the world’s oceans and host enormous economic activity. Development of energy installations (e.g. Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs), tidal turbines) in response to increased demand for renewable energy requires a careful analysis of potential impacts. Recent remote sensing observations have identified kilometrescale impacts from OWFs. Existing modelling evaluating monopile impacts has fallen into two camps: small-scale models with individually resolved turbines looking at local effects; and large-scale analyses but with sub-grid scale turbine parameterisations. This work straddles both scales through a 3D unstructured grid model (FVCOM): wind turbine monopiles in the eastern Irish Sea are explicitly described in the grid whilst the overall grid domain covers the south-western UK shelf. Localised regions of decreased velocity extend up to 250 times the monopile diameter away from the monopile. Shelf-wide, the amplitude of the M2 tidal constituent increases by up to 7%. The turbines enhance localised vertical mixing which decreases seasonal stratification. The spatial extent of this extends well beyond the turbines into the surrounding seas. With significant expansion of OWFs on continental shelves, this work highlights the importance of how OWFs may impact coastal (e.g. increased flooding risk) and offshore (e.g. stratification and nutrient cycling) areas.

Using multifractals to evaluate oceanographic model skill

We are in an era of unprecedented data volumes generated from observations and model simulations. This is particularly true from satellite Earth Observations (EO) and global scale oceanographic models. This presents us with an opportunity to evaluate large scale oceanographic model outputs using EO data. Previous work on model skill evaluation has led to a plethora of metrics. The paper defines two new model skill evaluation metrics. The metrics are based on the theory of universal multifractals and their purpose is to measure the structural similarity between the model predictions and the EO data. The two metrics have the following advantages over the standard techniques: a) they are scale-free, b) they carry important part of information about how model represents different oceanographic drivers. Those two metrics are then used in the paper to evaluate the performance of the FVCOM model in the shelf seas around the south-west coast of the UK.

Using multifractals to evaluate oceanographic model skill

We are in an era of unprecedented data volumes generated from observations and model simulations. This is particularly true from satellite Earth Observations (EO) and global scale oceanographic models. This presents us with an opportunity to evaluate large scale oceanographic model outputs using EO data. Previous work on model skill evaluation has led to a plethora of metrics. The paper defines two new model skill evaluation metrics. The metrics are based on the theory of universal multifractals and their purpose is to measure the structural similarity between the model predictions and the EO data. The two metrics have the following advantages over the standard techniques: a) they are scale-free, b) they carry important part of information about how model represents different oceanographic drivers. Those two metrics are then used in the paper to evaluate the performance of the FVCOM model in the shelf seas around the south-west coast of the UK.