Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Estimation of atmospheric nutrient inputs to the Atlantic Ocean from 50°N to 50°S based on large-scale field sampling: Iron and other dust-associated elements

Atmospheric inputs of mineral dust supply iron and other trace metals to the remote ocean and can influence the marine carbon cycle due to iron's role as a potentially limiting micronutrient. Dust generation, transport, and deposition are highly heterogeneous, and there are very few remote marine locations where dust concentrations and chemistry (e.g., iron solubility) are routinely monitored. Here we use aerosol and rainwater samples collected during 10 large-scale research cruises to estimate the atmospheric input of iron, aluminum, and manganese to four broad regions of the Atlantic Ocean over two 3 month periods for the years 2001–2005. We estimate total inputs of these metals to our study regions to be 4.2, 17, and 0.27 Gmol in April–June and 4.9, 14, and 0.19 Gmol in September–November, respectively. Inputs were highest in regions of high rainfall (the intertropical convergence zone and South Atlantic storm track), and rainfall contributed higher proportions of total input to wetter regions. By combining input estimates for total and soluble metals for these time periods, we calculated overall percentage solubilities for each metal that account for the contributions from both wet and dry depositions and the relative contributions from different aerosol types. Calculated solubilities were in the range 2.4%–9.1% for iron, 6.1%–15% for aluminum, and 54%–73% for manganese. We discuss sources of uncertainty in our estimates and compare our results to some recent estimates of atmospheric iron input to the Atlantic.

The Mediterranean Sea Regime Shift at the End of the 1980s, and Intriguing Parallelisms with Other European Basins

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems.

Satellite-detected fluorescence reveals global physiology of ocean phytoplankton

Phytoplankton photosynthesis links global ocean biology and climate-driven fluctuations in the physical environment. These interactions are largely expressed through changes in phytoplankton physiology, but physiological status has proven extremely challenging to characterize globally. Phytoplankton fluorescence does provide a rich source of physiological information long exploited in laboratory and field studies, and is now observed from space. Here we evaluate the physiological underpinnings of global variations in satellite-based phytoplankton chlorophyll fluorescence. The three dominant factors influencing fluorescence distributions are chlorophyll concentration, pigment packaging effects on light absorption, and light-dependent energy-quenching processes. After accounting for these three factors, resultant global distributions of quenching-corrected fluorescence quantum yields reveal a striking consistency with anticipated patterns of iron availability. High fluorescence quantum yields are typically found in low iron waters, while low quantum yields dominate regions where other environmental factors are most limiting to phytoplankton growth. Specific properties of photosynthetic membranes are discussed that provide a mechanistic view linking iron stress to satellite-detected fluorescence. Our results present satellite-based fluorescence as a valuable tool for evaluating nutrient stress predictions in ocean ecosystem models and give the first synoptic observational evidence that iron plays an important role in seasonal phytoplankton dynamics of the Indian Ocean. Satellite fluorescence may also provide a path for monitoring climate-phytoplankton physiology interactions and improving descriptions of phytoplankton light use efficiencies in ocean productivity models.

Ecological Investigations with the Continuous Plankton Recorder: The Zooplankton (other than Copepoda and Young Fish) in the Southern North Sea, 1932-37.

I. The report describes the main monthly changes in the distribution and abundance of the zooplankton, other than Copepoda and young fish (dealt with in separate reports), over the southern part of the North Sea from 1932 to 1937. The work is part of the survey carried out by Continuous Plankton Recorders towed at a depth of 10 metres on regular steamship lines between England and the Continent. 2. The limitations to the sampling method are discussed, and it is shown to be unsuitable for recording Mysidacea and Euphausiacea on account of their marked diurnal variation due presumably to vertical migration; they are omitted from the report. 3. The changing distribution of Sagitta, Limacina, Clione, Lamellibranch larvae, Cladocera, Caprellid Amphipoda, Decapod larvae, Echinoderm larvae and Oikopleura are shown in a series of monthly charts while their seasonal fluctuations are compared in time-chart histograms. 4. The Alima larvae of Squilla are recorded on a few occasions in the regions where the Channel opens into the North Sea. 5. The distributional characteristics of the different forms, i.e. their tendencies to even or " patchy " production, are compared.