Variation in ocean colour may help predict cod and haddock recruitment

Characteristics of the spring and fall phytoplankton blooms in spawning areas on the Scotian Shelf, Canada, were estimated from remote sensing data. These blooms, along with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation, were used to explain variation in the recruitment of 4 populations of cod and haddock. We tested the effects of the timing of the bloom using the chlorophyll a (chl a) signal, the maximum amount of chl a, the timing of the diatom bloom, and the maximum relative dominance of diatoms on the recruitment (to Age 1) of cod and haddock on the Scotian Shelf. Models were run separately for the effects of the spring and fall blooms. Only 3 of 10 models tested (0-lag) explained significant (80 to 92%) variation in recruitment. However, the performance of these models was not consistent across populations or species, suggesting that generalities about how spring and fall phytoplankton blooms affect recruitment cannot yet be made. The differences among models suggest that fish larvae are probably adapted locally to food production and thus indirectly to the characteristics of the phytoplankton bloom, which in turn are influenced by regional (meso-scale) oceanographic conditions.

Generalized ocean color inversion model for retrieving marine inherent optical properties

Ocean color measured from satellites provides daily, global estimates of marine inherent optical properties (IOPs). Semi-analytical algorithms (SAAs) provide one mechanism for inverting the color of the water observed by the satellite into IOPs. While numerous SAAs exist, most are similarly constructed and few are appropriately parameterized for all water masses for all seasons. To initiate community-wide discussion of these limitations, NASA organized two workshops that deconstructed SAAs to identify similarities and uniqueness and to progress toward consensus on a unified SAA. This effort resulted in the development of the generalized IOP (GIOP) model software that allows for the construction of different SAAs at runtime by selection from an assortment of model parameterizations. As such, GIOP permits isolation and evaluation of specific modeling assumptions, construction of SAAs, development of regionally tuned SAAs, and execution of ensemble inversion modeling. Working groups associated with the workshops proposed a preliminary default configuration for GIOP (GIOP-DC), with alternative model parameterizations and features defined for subsequent evaluation. In this paper, we: (1) describe the theoretical basis of GIOP; (2) present GIOP-DC and verify its comparable performance to other popular SAAs using both in situ and synthetic data sets; and, (3) quantify the sensitivities of their output to their parameterization. We use the latter to develop a hierarchical sensitivity of SAAs to various model parameterizations, to identify components of SAAs that merit focus in future research, and to provide material for discussion on algorithm uncertainties and future emsemble applications.

Real-time sea surface air temperature retrieval over Southern Ocean using AMSR-E data

The AMSR-E satellite data and in-situ data were applied to retrieve sea surface air temperature (Ta) over the Southern Ocean. The in-situ data were obtained from the 24~(th) -26~(th) Chinese Antarctic Expeditions during 2008-2010. First, Ta was used to analyze the relativity with the bright temperature (Tb) from the twelve channels of AMSR-E, and no high relativity was found between Ta and Tb from any of the channels. The highest relativity was 0.38 (with 23.8 GHz). The dataset for the modeling was obtained by using in-situ data to match up with Tb, and two methods were applied to build the retrieval model. In multi-parameters regression method, the Tbs from 12 channels were used to the model and the region was divided into two parts according to the latitude of 50°S. The retrieval results were compared with the in-situ data. The Root Mean Square Error (RMS) and relativity of high latitude zone were 0.96℃and 0.93, respectively. And those of low latitude zone were 1.29 ℃ and 0.96, respectively. Artificial neural network (ANN) method was applied to retrieve Ta.The RMS and relativity were 1.26 ℃ and 0.98, respectively.

Atmospheric deposition of methanol over the Atlantic Ocean

In the troposphere, methanol (CH3OH) is present ubiquitously and second in abundance among organic gases after methane. In the surface ocean, methanol represents a supply of energy and carbon for marine microbes. Here we report direct measurements of air-sea methanol transfer along a similar to 10,000-km north-south transect of the Atlantic. The flux of methanol was consistently from the atmosphere to the ocean. Constrained by the aerodynamic limit and measured rate of air-sea sensible heat exchange, methanol transfer resembles a one-way depositional process, which suggests dissolved methanol concentrations near the water surface that are lower than what were measured at similar to 5 m depth, for reasons currently unknown. We estimate the global oceanic uptake of methanol and examine the lifetimes of this compound in the lower atmosphere and upper ocean with respect to gas exchange. We also constrain the molecular diffusional resistance above the ocean surface-an important term for improving air-sea gas exchange models.

Radiolaria: Major exporters of organic carbon to the deep ocean

Very large pulses of particulate organic matter intermittently sink to the deep waters of the open ocean in the Northeast Atlantic. These pulses, measured by moored sediment traps since 1989, can contribute up to 60% of the organic flux to 3000 m in a particular year and are thus a major cause of the variability in carbon sequestration from the atmosphere in the region. Pulses occur in the late summer and are characterized by material that is very rich in organic carbon but with low concentrations of the biominerals opal and calcite. A number of independent lines of evidence have been examined to determine the causes of these pulses: (1) Data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey show that in this region, radiolarian protozoans intermittently reach high abundances in the late summer just preceding organic pulses to depth. (2) CPR data also show that the interannual variability in radiolarian abundance since 1997 mirrors very closely the variability of deep ocean organic deposition. (3) The settling material collected in the traps displays a strong correlation between fecal pellets produced by radiolaria and the measured organic carbon flux. These all suggest that the pulses are mediated by radiolarians, a group of protozoans found throughout the world’s oceans and which are widely used by paleontologists to determine past climate conditions. Changes in the upper ocean community structure (between years and on longer timescales) may have profound effects on the ability of the oceans to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Estimation of atmospheric nutrient inputs to the Atlantic Ocean from 50°N to 50°S based on large-scale field sampling: Iron and other dust-associated elements

Atmospheric inputs of mineral dust supply iron and other trace metals to the remote ocean and can influence the marine carbon cycle due to iron's role as a potentially limiting micronutrient. Dust generation, transport, and deposition are highly heterogeneous, and there are very few remote marine locations where dust concentrations and chemistry (e.g., iron solubility) are routinely monitored. Here we use aerosol and rainwater samples collected during 10 large-scale research cruises to estimate the atmospheric input of iron, aluminum, and manganese to four broad regions of the Atlantic Ocean over two 3 month periods for the years 2001–2005. We estimate total inputs of these metals to our study regions to be 4.2, 17, and 0.27 Gmol in April–June and 4.9, 14, and 0.19 Gmol in September–November, respectively. Inputs were highest in regions of high rainfall (the intertropical convergence zone and South Atlantic storm track), and rainfall contributed higher proportions of total input to wetter regions. By combining input estimates for total and soluble metals for these time periods, we calculated overall percentage solubilities for each metal that account for the contributions from both wet and dry depositions and the relative contributions from different aerosol types. Calculated solubilities were in the range 2.4%–9.1% for iron, 6.1%–15% for aluminum, and 54%–73% for manganese. We discuss sources of uncertainty in our estimates and compare our results to some recent estimates of atmospheric iron input to the Atlantic.

Understanding the Mechanisms of Cell and Population Responses of Coccolithophores to Changing Ocean Chemistry

The calcifying coccolithophores have been proposed as a potentially vulnerable group in the face of increasing surface ocean CO2 levels. A full understanding of the likely responses of this group requires better mechanistic information on pH- and CO2-sensitive processes that underlie cell function at molecular, cellular and population levels. New findings on the mechanisms of pH homeostasis at a molecular and cellular level in both diatoms and coccolithophores are shaping our understanding of how these important groups may respond or acclimate to changing ocean pH. Critical parameters including intracellular pH homeostasis and cell surface pH will be considered. These studies are being carried out in parallel with genetic studies of natural oceanic populations to assess the natural genetic and physiological diversity that will underlie adaptation of populations in the long term.

The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative: III. A round-robin comparison on in-water bio-optical algorithms

Satellite-derived remote-sensing reflectance (Rrs) can be used for mapping biogeochemically relevant variables, such as the chlorophyll concentration and the Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs) of the water, at global scale for use in climate-change studies. Prior to generating such products, suitable algorithms have to be selected that are appropriate for the purpose. Algorithm selection needs to account for both qualitative and quantitative requirements. In this paper we develop an objective methodology designed to rank the quantitative performance of a suite of bio-optical models. The objective classification is applied using the NASA bio-Optical Marine Algorithm Dataset (NOMAD). Using in situRrs as input to the models, the performance of eleven semi-analytical models, as well as five empirical chlorophyll algorithms and an empirical diffuse attenuation coefficient algorithm, is ranked for spectrally-resolved IOPs, chlorophyll concentration and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 489 nm. The sensitivity of the objective classification and the uncertainty in the ranking are tested using a Monte-Carlo approach (bootstrapping). Results indicate that the performance of the semi-analytical models varies depending on the product and wavelength of interest. For chlorophyll retrieval, empirical algorithms perform better than semi-analytical models, in general. The performance of these empirical models reflects either their immunity to scale errors or instrument noise in Rrs data, or simply that the data used for model parameterisation were not independent of NOMAD. Nonetheless, uncertainty in the classification suggests that the performance of some semi-analytical algorithms at retrieving chlorophyll is comparable with the empirical algorithms. For phytoplankton absorption at 443 nm, some semi-analytical models also perform with similar accuracy to an empirical model. We discuss the potential biases, limitations and uncertainty in the approach, as well as additional qualitative considerations for algorithm selection for climate-change studies. Our classification has the potential to be routinely implemented, such that the performance of emerging algorithms can be compared with existing algorithms as they become available. In the long-term, such an approach will further aid algorithm development for ocean-colour studies.

Theoretical analysis of ocean color radiances anomalies and implications for phytoplankton groups detection in case 1 waters

Past years have seen the development of different approaches to detect phytoplankton groups from space. One of these methods, the PHYSAT one, is empirically based on reflectance anomalies. Despite observations in good agreement with in situ measurements, the underlying theoretical explanation of the method is still missing and needed by the ocean color community as it prevents improvements of the methods and characterization of uncertainties on the inversed products. In this study, radiative transfer simulations are used in addition to in situ measurements to understand the organization of the signals used in PHYSAT. Sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the impact of the variability of the following three parameters on the reflectance anomalies: specific phytoplankton absorption, colored dissolved organic matter absorption, and particles backscattering. While the later parameter explains the largest part of the anomalies variability, results show that each group is generally associated with a specific bio-optical environment which should be considered to improve methods of phytoplankton groups detection.

Changes in the oceanic northeast Pacific plankton populations; what may happen in a warmer ocean

The Continuous Plankton Recorder has been sampling the northeast Pacific on a routine basis since 2000. Although this is a relatively short time series still, climate variability within that time has caused noticeable related changes in the plankton. The earlier part of the time series followed the 1999 La Nina and conditions were cool, but conditions between 2003 and 2005 were anomalously warm. Oceanic zooplankton have responded to this warming in several ways that are discernible in CPR data. The seasonal cycle of mesozooplankton biomass in the eastern Gulf of Alaska has shifted earlier in the spring by a few weeks (sampling resolution is too coarse to be more accurate). The copepod Neocalanus plumchruslflemingeri is largely responsible as it makes up a high proportion of the spring surface biomass and stage-based determinations have shown an earlier maximum in warmer years across much of the northeast Pacific, spanning nearly 20 degrees of latitude. Summer copepod populations are more diverse than in spring, although lower in biomass. The northwards extension of southern taxa in the summer correlates with surface temperature and in warmer years southern taxa are found further north than in cooler years. These findings support the importance of monitoring the open ocean particularly as it is an important foraging ground for large fish, birds and mammals. Higher trophic levels may time their reproduction or migration to coincide with the abundance of particular prey which may be of a different composition and/or lower abundance at a particular time in warmer conditions.

Rapid biogeographical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

Large-scale biogeographical changes in the biodiversity of a key zooplankton group (calanoid copepods) were detected in the north-eastern part of the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas over the period 1960–1999. These findings provided key empirical evidence for climate change impacts on marine ecosystems at the regional to oceanic scale. Since 1999, global temperatures have continued to rise in the region. Here, we extend the analysis to the period 1958–2005 using all calanoid copepod species assemblages (nine species assemblages based on an analysis including a total of 108 calanoid species or taxa) and show that this phenomenon has been reinforced in all regions. Our study reveals that the biodiversity of calanoid copepods are responding quickly to sea surface temperature (SST) rise by moving geographically northward at a rapid rate up to about 23.16 km yr−1. Our analysis suggests that nearly half of the increase in sea temperature in the northeast Atlantic and adjacent seas is related to global temperature rises (46.35% of the total variance of temperature) while changes in both natural modes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation explain 26.45% of the total variance of temperature. Although some SST isotherms have moved northwards by an average rate of up to 21.75 km yr−1 (e.g. the North Sea), their movement cannot fully quantify all species assemblage shifts. Furthermore, the observed rates of biogeographical movements are far greater than those observed in the terrestrial realm. Here, we discuss the processes that may explain such a discrepancy and suggest that the differences are mainly explained by the fluid nature of the pelagic domain, the life cycle of the zooplankton and the lesser anthropogenic influence (e.g. exploitation, habitat fragmentation) on these organisms. We also hypothesize that despite changes in the path and intensity of the oceanic currents that may modify quickly and greatly pelagic zooplankton species, these organisms may reflect better the current impact of climate warming on ecosystems as terrestrial organisms are likely to significantly lag the current impact of climate change.

Decadal changes in climate and ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas

Climate change is unambiguous and its effects are clearly detected in all functional units of the Earth system. This study presents new analyses of sea-surface temperature changes and show that climate change is affecting ecosystems of the North Atlantic. Changes are seen from phytoplankton to zooplankton to fish and are modifying the dominance of species and the structure, the diversity and the functioning of marine ecosystems. Changes also range from phenological to biogeographical shifts and have involved in some regions of the Atlantic abrupt ecosystem shifts. These alterations reflect a response of pelagic ecosystems to a warmer temperature regime. Mechanisms are complex because they are nonlinear exhibiting tipping points and varying in space and time. Sensitivity of organisms to temperature changes is high, implicating that a small temperature modification can have sustained ecosystem effects. Implications of these changes for biogeochemical cycles are discussed. Two observed changes detected in the North Sea that could have opposite effects on carbon cycle are discussed. Increase in phytoplankton, as inferred from the phytoplankton colour index derived from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, has been detected in the North Sea. This pattern has been accompanied by a reduction in the abundance of the herbivorous species Calanus finmarchicus. This might have reduced the grazing pressure and increase diatomaceous ‘fluff’, therefore carbon export in the North Sea. Therefore, it could be argued that the biological carbon pump might increase in this region with sea warming. In the meantime, however, the mean size of organisms (calanoid copepods) has dropped. Such changes have implications for the turnover time of biogenic carbon in plankton organisms and the mean residence time of particulate carbon they produce. The system characterising the warmer period is more based on recycling and less on export. The increase in the minimum turnover time indicates an increase in the ecosystem metabolism, which can be considered as a response of the pelagic ecosystems to climate warming. This phenomenon could reduce carbon export. These two opposite patterns of change are examples of the diversity of mechanisms and pathways the ecosystems may exhibit with climate change. Oversimplification of current biogeochemical models, often due to lack of data and biological understanding, could lead to wrong projection on the direction ecosystems and therefore some biogeochemical cycles might take in a warmer world.