Questioning the role of phenology shifts and trophic mismatching in a planktonic food web

In a warming climate, differential shifts in the seasonal timing of predators and prey have been suggested to lead to trophic ‘‘mismatches’’ that decouple primary, secondary and tertiary production. We tested this hypothesis using a 25-year time-series of weekly sampling at the Plymouth L4 site, comparing 57 plankton taxa spanning 4 trophic levels. During warm years, there was a weak tendency for earlier timings of spring taxa and later timings of autumn taxa. While this is in line with many previous findings, numerous exceptions existed and only a few taxa (e.g. Gyrodinium spp., Pseudocalanus elongatus, and Acartia clausi) showed consistent, strong evidence for temperature-related timing shifts, revealed by all 4 of the timing indices that we used. Also, the calculated offsets in timing i.e. ‘‘mismatches’’) between predator and prey were no greater in extreme warm or cold years than during more average years. Further, the magnitude of these offsets had no effect on the ‘‘success’’ of the predator, in terms of their annual mean abundance or egg production rates. Instead numerous other factors override, including: inter-annual variability in food quantity, high food baseline levels, turnover rates and prolonged seasonal availability, allowing extended periods of production. Furthermore many taxa, notably meroplankton, increased well before the spring bloom. While theoretically a chronic mismatch, this likely reflects trade-offs for example in predation avoidance. Various gelatinous taxa (Phaeocystis, Noctiluca, ctenophores, appendicularians, medusae) may have reduced these predation constraints, with variable, explosive population outbursts likely responding to improved conditions. The match–mismatch hypothesis may apply for highly seasonal, pulsed systems or specialist feeders, but we suggest that the concept is being over-extended to other marine systems where multiple factors compensate.

Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

Climate-Driven Range Shifts Within Benthic Habitats Across a Marine Biogeographic Transition Zone.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing unprecedented rapid responses in marine communities, with species across many different taxonomic groups showing faster shifts in biogeographic ranges than in any other ecosystem. Spatial and temporal trends for many marine species are difficult to quantify, however, due to the lack of long-term datasets across complete geographical distributions and the occurrence of small-scale variability from both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Understanding these changes requires a multidisciplinary approach to bring together patterns identified within long-term datasets and the processes driving those patterns using biologically relevant mechanistic information to accurately attribute cause and effect. This must include likely future biological responses, and detection of the underlying mechanisms in order to scale up from the organismal level to determine how communities and ecosystems are likely to respond across a range of future climate change scenarios. Using this multidisciplinary approach will improve the use of robust science to inform the development of fit-for-purpose policy to effectively manage marine environments in this rapidly changing world.

Climate-Driven Range Shifts Within Benthic Habitats Across a Marine Biogeographic Transition Zone.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing unprecedented rapid responses in marine communities, with species across many different taxonomic groups showing faster shifts in biogeographic ranges than in any other ecosystem. Spatial and temporal trends for many marine species are difficult to quantify, however, due to the lack of long-term datasets across complete geographical distributions and the occurrence of small-scale variability from both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Understanding these changes requires a multidisciplinary approach to bring together patterns identified within long-term datasets and the processes driving those patterns using biologically relevant mechanistic information to accurately attribute cause and effect. This must include likely future biological responses, and detection of the underlying mechanisms in order to scale up from the organismal level to determine how communities and ecosystems are likely to respond across a range of future climate change scenarios. Using this multidisciplinary approach will improve the use of robust science to inform the development of fit-for-purpose policy to effectively manage marine environments in this rapidly changing world.

Climate-driven shifts in species' distributions may exacerbate the impacts of storm disturbances on North-east Atlantic kelp forests

Physical disturbance through wave action is a major determinant of kelp forest structure. The North-east Atlantic storm season of 2013–14 was unusually severe; the south coast of the UK was subjected to 6 of the 12 most intense storms recorded in the past 5 years. Inshore significant wave heights and periods exceeded 7 m and 13 s with two storms classified as ‘1-in-30 year’ events. We examined the impacts of the storm season on kelp canopies at three study sites. Monospecific canopies comprising Laminaria hyperborea were unaffected by storm disturbance. However, at one study site a mixed canopy comprising Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima and L. hyperborea was significantly altered by the storms, due to decreased abundances of the former two species. Quantification of freshly severed stipes suggested that the ‘warm water’ kelp L. ochroleuca was more susceptible to storm damage than L. hyperborea. Overall, kelp canopies were highly resistant to storm disturbance because of the low vulnerability of L. hyperborea to intense wave action. However, if climate-driven shifts in kelp species distributions result in more mixed canopies, as predicted, then resistance to storm disturbance may be eroded.

Climate-driven shifts in species' distributions may exacerbate the impacts of storm disturbances on North-east Atlantic kelp forests

Physical disturbance through wave action is a major determinant of kelp forest structure. The North-east Atlantic storm season of 2013–14 was unusually severe; the south coast of the UK was subjected to 6 of the 12 most intense storms recorded in the past 5 years. Inshore significant wave heights and periods exceeded 7 m and 13 s with two storms classified as ‘1-in-30 year’ events. We examined the impacts of the storm season on kelp canopies at three study sites. Monospecific canopies comprising Laminaria hyperborea were unaffected by storm disturbance. However, at one study site a mixed canopy comprising Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima and L. hyperborea was significantly altered by the storms, due to decreased abundances of the former two species. Quantification of freshly severed stipes suggested that the ‘warm water’ kelp L. ochroleuca was more susceptible to storm damage than L. hyperborea. Overall, kelp canopies were highly resistant to storm disturbance because of the low vulnerability of L. hyperborea to intense wave action. However, if climate-driven shifts in kelp species distributions result in more mixed canopies, as predicted, then resistance to storm disturbance may be eroded.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.