Covariance among North Sea ecosystem state indicators during the past 50 years - contrasts between coastal and open waters

Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958–2003, those of nutrients start in 1980. In both regions, the period from 1989 to 2001 identified in principal component 1 had warmer surface waters, higher Atlantic inflow and stronger winds, than the periods before or after. However, it was preceded by a regime shift in both open (PC2) and coastal (PC3) waters during 1977 towards more hours of sunlight and higher water temperature, which lasted until 1997. The relative influence of nutrient availability and climatic forcing differed between open and coastal North Sea regions. Inter-annual variability in phytoplankton dynamics of the open North Sea was primarily regulated by climatic forcing, specifically by sea surface temperature, Atlantic inflow and co-varying wind stress and NAO. Coastal phytoplankton variability, however, was regulated by insolation and sea surface temperature, as well as Si availability, but not by N or P. Regime shifts in principal components of hydrographic and climatic variables (explaining 55 and 61% of the variance in coastal and open water variables) were detected using Rodionov's sequential t-test. These shifts in hydroclimatic variables which occurred around 1977, 1989, 1997 and 2001, were synchronized in open and coastal waters, and were tracked by open water chlorophyll and copepods, but not by coastal plankton. North–central–south or open-coastal spatial breakdowns of the North Sea explained similar amounts of variability in most ecosystem indicators with the exception of diatom abundance and chlorophyll concentration, which were clearly better explained using the open-coastal configuration.

Monitoring of a quasi-stationary eddy in the Bay of Biscay by means of satellite, in situ and model results

The presence of a quasi-stationary anticyclonic eddy within the southeastern Bay of Biscay (centred around 44°30′N-4°W) has been reported on various occasions in the bibliography. The analysis made in this study for the period 2003–2010, by using in situ and remote sensing measurements and model results shows that this mesoscale coherent structure is present almost every year from the end of winter-beginning of spring, to the beginning of fall. During this period it remains in an area limited to the east by the Landes Plateau, to the west by Le Danois Bank and Torrelavega canyon and to the northwest by the Jovellanos seamount. All the observations and analysis made in this contribution, suggest that this structure is generated between Capbreton and Torrelavega canyons. Detailed monitoring from in situ and remote sensing data of an anticyclonic quasi-stationary eddy, in 2008, shows the origin of this structure from a warm water current located around 43°42′N-3°30′W in mid-January. This coherent structure is monitored until August around the same area, where it has a marked influence on the Sea Level Anomaly, Sea Surface Temperature and surface Chlorophyll-a concentration. An eddy tracking method, applied to the outputs of a numerical model, shows that the model is able to reproduce this type of eddy, with similar 2D characteristics and lifetimes to that suggested by the observations and previous works. This is the case, for instance, of the simulated MAY04 eddy, which was generated in May 2004 around Torrelavega canyon and remained quasi-stationary in the area for 4 months. The diameter of this eddy ranged from 40 to 60 km, its azimuthal velocity was less than 20 cm s−1, its vertical extension reached 3000–3500 m depth during April and May and it was observed to interact with other coherent structures.

Monitoring of a quasi-stationary eddy in the Bay of Biscay by means of satellite, in situ and model results

The presence of a quasi-stationary anticyclonic eddy within the southeastern Bay of Biscay (centred around 44°30′N-4°W) has been reported on various occasions in the bibliography. The analysis made in this study for the period 2003–2010, by using in situ and remote sensing measurements and model results shows that this mesoscale coherent structure is present almost every year from the end of winter-beginning of spring, to the beginning of fall. During this period it remains in an area limited to the east by the Landes Plateau, to the west by Le Danois Bank and Torrelavega canyon and to the northwest by the Jovellanos seamount. All the observations and analysis made in this contribution, suggest that this structure is generated between Capbreton and Torrelavega canyons. Detailed monitoring from in situ and remote sensing data of an anticyclonic quasi-stationary eddy, in 2008, shows the origin of this structure from a warm water current located around 43°42′N-3°30′W in mid-January. This coherent structure is monitored until August around the same area, where it has a marked influence on the Sea Level Anomaly, Sea Surface Temperature and surface Chlorophyll-a concentration. An eddy tracking method, applied to the outputs of a numerical model, shows that the model is able to reproduce this type of eddy, with similar 2D characteristics and lifetimes to that suggested by the observations and previous works. This is the case, for instance, of the simulated MAY04 eddy, which was generated in May 2004 around Torrelavega canyon and remained quasi-stationary in the area for 4 months. The diameter of this eddy ranged from 40 to 60 km, its azimuthal velocity was less than 20 cm s−1, its vertical extension reached 3000–3500 m depth during April and May and it was observed to interact with other coherent structures.

Birth, life and death of a cyclonic eddy in the Southern Ocean

The ACC is a climatically relevant frontal structure of global importance that regularly develops instabilities which grow into meanders that eventually evolve into long-lived cyclonic eddies. These eddies exhibit sustain primary productivity that can last several months fuelled by local resupply of nutrients. During April-May 2015 we conducted an intensive field experiment in the Southern Ocean (SMILES) where we sampled and tracked an ACC meander as it developed into an eddy and later vanished some 90 days later. The meander and later eddy physical characteristics were observed with a combination of high resolution hydrography, ADCP and turbulence observations in addition to surface and depth resolved biogeochemical observations of nutrients and phytoplankton. The life and death of the eddy was subsequently tracked through ARGO, BIO-ARGO and remote sensing.

Ocean structure and climate (Eastern North Atlantic): in situ measurement and remote sensing

Structure and climate of the east North Atlantic are appraised within a framework of in situ measurement and altimeter remote sensing from 0 degree - 60 degree N. Long zonal expendable bathythermograph /conductivity-temperature-depth probe sections show repeating internal structure in the North Atlantic Ocean. Drogued buoys and subsurface floats give westward speeds for eddies and wavelike structure. Records from longterm current meter deployments give the periodicity of the repeating structure. Eddy and wave characteristics of period, size or wavelength, westward propagation speed, and mean currents are derived at 20 degree N, 26 degree N, 32.5 degree N, 36 degree N and 48 degree N from in situ measurements in the Atlantic Ocean. It is shown that ocean wave and eddy-like features measured in situ correlate with altimeter structure. Interior ocean wave crests or cold dome-like temperature structures are cyclonic and have negative surface altimeter anomalies; mesoscale internal wave troughs or warm structures are anticyclonic and have positive surface height anomalies. Along the Eastern Boundary, flows and temperature climate are examined in terms of sla and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Longterm changes in ocean climate and circulation are derived from sla data. It is shown that longterm changes from 1992 to 2002 in the North Atlantic Current and the Subtropical Gyre transport determined from sla data correlate with winter NAO Index such that maximum flow conditions occurred in 1995 and 2000. Minimum circulation conditions occurred between 1996-1998. Years of extreme negative winter NAO Index result in enhanced poleward flow along the Eastern Boundary and anomalous winter warming along the West European Continental Slope as was measured in 1990, 1996, 1998 and 2001.

Exploiting satellite earth observation to quantify current global oceanic DMS flux and its future climate sensitivity

We used coincident Envisat RA2 and AATSR temperature and wind speed data from 2008/2009 to calculate the global net sea-air flux of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which we estimate to be 19.6 Tg S a21. Our monthly flux calculations are compared to open ocean eddy correlation measurements of DMS flux from 10 recent cruises, with a root mean square difference of 3.1 lmol m22 day21. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied temperature, salinity, surface wind speed, and aqueous DMS concentration, using fixed global changes as well as CMIP5 model output. The range of DMS flux in future climate scenarios is discussed. The CMIP5 model predicts a reduction in surface wind speed and we estimate that this will decrease the global annual sea-air flux of DMS by 22% over 25 years. Concurrent changes in temperature, salinity, and DMS concentration increase the global flux by much smaller amounts. The net effect of all CMIP5 modelled 25 year predictions was a 19% reduction in global DMS flux. 25 year DMS concentration changes had significant regional effects, some positive (Southern Ocean, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific) and some negative (isolated regions along the Equator and in the Indian Ocean). Using satellite-detected coverage of coccolithophore blooms, our estimate of their contribution to North Atlantic DMS emissions suggests that the coccolithophores contribute only a small percentage of the North Atlantic annual flux estimate, but may be more important in the summertime and in the northeast Atlantic.

Southern Annular Mode and westerly-wind-driven changes in Indian-Atlantic exchange mechanisms

The dynamical link between the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remains poorly understood. This partly arises from the complex Agulhas leakage, which occurs via rings, cyclones, and non-eddy flux. Hindcast simulations suggest that leakage has recently increased but have not decomposed this signal into its constituent mechanisms. Here these are isolated in a realistic ocean model. Increases in simulated leakage are attributed to stronger eddy and non-eddy-driven transports, and a strong warming and salinification, especially within Agulhas rings. Variability in both regimes is associated with strengthening Indian Ocean westerly winds, reflecting an increasingly positive Southern Annular Mode. While eddy and non-eddy flux signals are tied through turbulent eddy dissipation, the ratio between the two varies decadally. Consequently, while altimetry suggests a recent increase in retroflection turbulence and implied leakage, non-eddy flux may also play a significant role in modulating the leakage AMOC connection.