The future of the northeast Atlantic benthic flora in a high CO2 world

Seaweed and seagrass communities in the northeast Atlantic have been profoundly impacted by humans, and the rate of change is accelerating rapidly due to runaway CO2 emissions and mounting pressures on coastlines associated with human population growth and increased consumption of finite resources. Here, we predict how rapid warming and acidification are likely to affect benthic flora and coastal ecosystems of the northeast Atlantic in this century, based on global evidence from the literature as interpreted by the collective knowledge of the authorship. We predict that warming will kill off kelp forests in the south and that ocean acidification will remove maerl habitat in the north. Seagrasses will proliferate, and associated epiphytes switch from calcified algae to diatoms and filamentous species. Invasive species will thrive in niches liberated by loss of native species and spread via exponential development of artificial marine structures. Combined impacts of seawater warming, ocean acidification, and increased storminess may replace structurally diverse seaweed canopies, with associated calcified and noncalcified flora, with simple habitats dominated by noncalcified, turf-forming seaweeds.

Phenotypic variation in shell form in the intertidal acorn barnacle Chthamalus montagui: distribution, response to predators and life history trade-offs.

The acorn barnacle Chthamalus montagui can present strong variation in shell morphology, ranging from flat conic to a highly bent form, caused by a substantial overgrowth of the rostrum plate. Shell shape distribution was investigated between January and May 2004 from geographical to microhabitat spatial scales along the western coast of Britain. Populations studied in the north (Scotland and Isle of Man) showed a higher degree of shell variation compared to those in the south (Wales and south-west England). In the north, C. montagui living at lower tidal levels and in proximity to the predatory dogwhelk, Nucella lapillus, were more bent in profile. Laboratory experiments were conducted to examine behavioural responses, and vulnerability of bent and conic barnacles to predation by N. lapillus. Dogwhelks did not attack one morphotype more than the other, but only 15 % of attacks on bent forms were successful compared to 75 % in conic forms. Dogwhelk effluent reduced the time spent feeding by C. montagui (11 %), but there was no significant difference between conic and bent forms. Examination of barnacle morphology indicated a trade-off in investment in shell structure and feeding appendages associated with being bent, but none with egg or somatic tissue mass. These results are consistent with C. montagui showing an induced defence comparable to that found in its congeners Chthamalus anisopoma and Chthamalus fissus on the Pacific coast of North America, but further work to demonstrate inducibility is required.

Looking backwards to look forwards: the role of natural history in temperate reef ecology

Temperate reefs are superb tractable systems for testing hypotheses in ecology and evolutionary biology. Accordingly there is a rich history of research stretching back over 100 years, which has made major contributions to general ecological and evolutionary theory as well as providing better understanding of how littoral systems work by linking pattern with process. A brief resumé of the history of temperate reef ecology is provided to celebrate this rich heritage. As a community, temperate reef ecologists generally do well designed experiments and test well formulated hypotheses. Increasingly large datasets are being collected, collated and subjected to complex meta-analyses and used for modelling. These datasets do not happen spontaneously – the burgeoning subject of macroecology is possible only because of the efforts of dedicated natural historians whether it be observing birds, butterflies, or barnacles. High-quality natural history and old-fashioned field craft enable surveys or experiments to be stratified (i.e. replicates are replicates and not a random bit of rock) and lead to the generation of more insightful hypotheses. Modern molecular approaches have led to the discovery of cryptic species and provided phylogeographical insights, but natural history is still required to identify species in the field. We advocate a blend of modern approaches with old school skills and a fondness for temperate reefs in all their splendour.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Niño’ in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena.

A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Niño’ in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena.

Historical comparisons reveal multiple drivers of decadal change of an ecosystem engineer at the range edge

Biogenic reefs are important for habitat provision and coastal protection. Long-term datasets on the distribution and abundance of Sabellaria alveolata (L.) are available from Britain. The aim of this study was to combine historical records and contemporary data to (1) describe spatiotemporal variation in winter temperatures, (2) document short-term and long-term changes in the distribution and abundance of S. alveolata and discuss these changes in relation to extreme weather events and recent warming, and (3) assess the potential for artificial coastal defense structures to function as habitat for S. alveolata. A semi-quantitative abundance scale (ACFOR) was used to compare broadscale, long-term and interannual abundance of S. alveolata near its range edge in NW Britain. S. alveolata disappeared from the North Wales and Wirral coastlines where it had been abundant prior to the cold winter of 1962/1963. Population declines were also observed following the recent cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Extensive surveys in 2004 and 2012 revealed that S. alveolata had recolonized locations from which it had previously disappeared. Furthermore, it had increased in abundance at many locations, possibly in response to recent warming. S. alveolata was recorded on the majority of artificial coastal defense structures surveyed, suggesting that the proliferation of artificial coastal defense structures along this stretch of coastline may have enabled S. alveolata to spread across stretches of unsuitable natural habitat. Long-term and broadscale contextual monitoring is essential for monitoring responses of organisms to climate change. Historical data and gray literature can be invaluable sources of information. Our results support the theory that Lusitanian species are responding positively to climate warming but also that short-term extreme weather events can have potentially devastating widespread and lasting effects on organisms. Furthermore, the proliferation of coastal defense structures has implications for phylogeography, population genetics, and connectivity of coastal populations.

Historical comparisons reveal multiple drivers of decadal change of an ecosystem engineer at the range edge

Biogenic reefs are important for habitat provision and coastal protection. Long-term datasets on the distribution and abundance of Sabellaria alveolata (L.) are available from Britain. The aim of this study was to combine historical records and contemporary data to (1) describe spatiotemporal variation in winter temperatures, (2) document short-term and long-term changes in the distribution and abundance of S. alveolata and discuss these changes in relation to extreme weather events and recent warming, and (3) assess the potential for artificial coastal defense structures to function as habitat for S. alveolata. A semi-quantitative abundance scale (ACFOR) was used to compare broadscale, long-term and interannual abundance of S. alveolata near its range edge in NW Britain. S. alveolata disappeared from the North Wales and Wirral coastlines where it had been abundant prior to the cold winter of 1962/1963. Population declines were also observed following the recent cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Extensive surveys in 2004 and 2012 revealed that S. alveolata had recolonized locations from which it had previously disappeared. Furthermore, it had increased in abundance at many locations, possibly in response to recent warming. S. alveolata was recorded on the majority of artificial coastal defense structures surveyed, suggesting that the proliferation of artificial coastal defense structures along this stretch of coastline may have enabled S. alveolata to spread across stretches of unsuitable natural habitat. Long-term and broadscale contextual monitoring is essential for monitoring responses of organisms to climate change. Historical data and gray literature can be invaluable sources of information. Our results support the theory that Lusitanian species are responding positively to climate warming but also that short-term extreme weather events can have potentially devastating widespread and lasting effects on organisms. Furthermore, the proliferation of coastal defense structures has implications for phylogeography, population genetics, and connectivity of coastal populations.

Facing the future: the importance of substratum features for ecological engineering of artificial habitats in the rocky intertidal

Coastal defences are proliferating in response to climate change, leading to the creation of more vertical substrata. Efforts are being made to mitigate their impacts and create novel habitats to promote biodiversity. Little is known about the effect of aspect (i.e. north–south directionality) and inclination on intertidal biodiversity in artificial habitats. Artificial and natural habitats were compared to assess the role of aspect and substratum inclination in determining patterns of biodiversity at two tidal heights (high and mid). We also compared grazing activity between north- and south-facing surfaces in natural habitats to examine the potential for differential grazing pressure to affect community structure and functioning. Results were variable but some clear patterns emerged. Inclination had no effect on biodiversity or abundance. There was a general trend towards greater taxon richness and abundance on north-facing than south-facing substrata in natural and artificial habitats. On natural shores, the abundance and grazing activity of ‘southern’ limpets (i.e. Patella depressa) was greater on south-facing than north-facing substrata, with possible implications for further range-expansion. These results highlight the importance of incorporating shaded habitats in the construction of artificial habitats. These habitats may represent an important refuge from grazing pressure and thermal and desiccation stress in a warming climate.

Facing the future: the importance of substratum features for ecological engineering of artificial habitats in the rocky intertidal

Coastal defences are proliferating in response to climate change, leading to the creation of more vertical substrata. Efforts are being made to mitigate their impacts and create novel habitats to promote biodiversity. Little is known about the effect of aspect (i.e. north–south directionality) and inclination on intertidal biodiversity in artificial habitats. Artificial and natural habitats were compared to assess the role of aspect and substratum inclination in determining patterns of biodiversity at two tidal heights (high and mid). We also compared grazing activity between north- and south-facing surfaces in natural habitats to examine the potential for differential grazing pressure to affect community structure and functioning. Results were variable but some clear patterns emerged. Inclination had no effect on biodiversity or abundance. There was a general trend towards greater taxon richness and abundance on north-facing than south-facing substrata in natural and artificial habitats. On natural shores, the abundance and grazing activity of ‘southern’ limpets (i.e. Patella depressa) was greater on south-facing than north-facing substrata, with possible implications for further range-expansion. These results highlight the importance of incorporating shaded habitats in the construction of artificial habitats. These habitats may represent an important refuge from grazing pressure and thermal and desiccation stress in a warming climate.

Fisheries stocks from an ecological perspective: Disentangling ecological connectivity from genetic interchange

The concept of a stock of fish as a management unit has been around for well over a hundred years, and this has formed the basis for fisheries science. Methods for delimiting stocks have advanced considerably over recent years, including genetic, telemetric, tagging, geochemical and phenotypic information. In parallel with these developments, concepts in population ecology such as meta-population dynamics and connectivity have advanced. The pragmatic view of stocks has always accepted some mixing during spawning, feeding and/or larval drift. Here we consider the mismatch between ecological connectivity of a matrix of populations typically focussed on demographic measurements, and genetic connectivity of populations that focus on genetic exchange detected using modern molecular approaches. We suggest that from an ecological-connectivity perspective populations can be delimited as management units if there is limited exchange during recruitment or via migration in most years. From a genetic-connectivity perspective such limited exchange can maintain panmixia. We use case-studies of species endangered by overexploitation and/or habitat degradation to show how current methods of stock delimitation can help in managing populations and in conservation.

Fisheries stocks from an ecological perspective: Disentangling ecological connectivity from genetic interchange

The concept of a stock of fish as a management unit has been around for well over a hundred years, and this has formed the basis for fisheries science. Methods for delimiting stocks have advanced considerably over recent years, including genetic, telemetric, tagging, geochemical and phenotypic information. In parallel with these developments, concepts in population ecology such as meta-population dynamics and connectivity have advanced. The pragmatic view of stocks has always accepted some mixing during spawning, feeding and/or larval drift. Here we consider the mismatch between ecological connectivity of a matrix of populations typically focussed on demographic measurements, and genetic connectivity of populations that focus on genetic exchange detected using modern molecular approaches. We suggest that from an ecological-connectivity perspective populations can be delimited as management units if there is limited exchange during recruitment or via migration in most years. From a genetic-connectivity perspective such limited exchange can maintain panmixia. We use case-studies of species endangered by overexploitation and/or habitat degradation to show how current methods of stock delimitation can help in managing populations and in conservation.

Macroalgae contribute to the diet of Patella vulgata from contrasting conditions of latitude and wave exposure in the UK

Analysis of gut contents and stable isotope composition of intertidal limpets (Patella vulgata) showed a major contribution of macroalgae to their diet, along with microalgae and invertebrates. Specimens were collected in areas with limited access to attached macroalgae, suggesting a major dietary component of drift algae. Gut contents of 480 animals from 2 moderately wave-exposed and 2 sheltered rocky shores in each of 2 regions (western Scotland, 55-56°N; and southwest England, 50°N), were analysed in 2 years (n = 30 site-1 yr-1). The abundance of microalgae, macroalgae and invertebrates within the guts was quantified using categorical abundance scales. Gut content composition was compared among regions and wave exposure conditions, showing that the diet of P. vulgata changes with both wave exposure and latitude. Microalgae were most abundant in limpet gut contents in animals from southwestern sites, whilst leathery/corticated macroalgae were more prevalent and abundant in limpets from sheltered and northern sites. P. vulgata appears to have a more flexible diet than previously appreciated, and these keystone grazers consume not only microalgae, but also large quantities of macroalgae and small invertebrates. To date, limpet grazing studies have focussed on their role in controlling recruitment of macroalgae by feeding on microscopic propagules and germlings. Consumption of adult algae suggests that P. vulgata may also directly control the biomass of attached macroalgae on the shore, whilst consumption of drift algae indicates that the species may play important roles in coupling subtidal and intertidal production.