Generalized ocean color inversion model for retrieving marine inherent optical properties

Ocean color measured from satellites provides daily, global estimates of marine inherent optical properties (IOPs). Semi-analytical algorithms (SAAs) provide one mechanism for inverting the color of the water observed by the satellite into IOPs. While numerous SAAs exist, most are similarly constructed and few are appropriately parameterized for all water masses for all seasons. To initiate community-wide discussion of these limitations, NASA organized two workshops that deconstructed SAAs to identify similarities and uniqueness and to progress toward consensus on a unified SAA. This effort resulted in the development of the generalized IOP (GIOP) model software that allows for the construction of different SAAs at runtime by selection from an assortment of model parameterizations. As such, GIOP permits isolation and evaluation of specific modeling assumptions, construction of SAAs, development of regionally tuned SAAs, and execution of ensemble inversion modeling. Working groups associated with the workshops proposed a preliminary default configuration for GIOP (GIOP-DC), with alternative model parameterizations and features defined for subsequent evaluation. In this paper, we: (1) describe the theoretical basis of GIOP; (2) present GIOP-DC and verify its comparable performance to other popular SAAs using both in situ and synthetic data sets; and, (3) quantify the sensitivities of their output to their parameterization. We use the latter to develop a hierarchical sensitivity of SAAs to various model parameterizations, to identify components of SAAs that merit focus in future research, and to provide material for discussion on algorithm uncertainties and future emsemble applications.

Predator–prey reversal: A possible mechanism for ecosystem hysteresis in the North Sea?

Removal of large predatory fishes from marine ecosystems has resulted in persistent ecosystem shifts, with collapsed predator populations and super-abundant prey populations. One explanation for these shifts is reversals of predator–prey roles that generate internal feedbacks in the ecosystems. Pelagic forage fish are often predators and competitors to the young life stages of their larger fish predators. I show that cod recruitment in the North Sea has been negatively related to the spawning-stock biomass of herring for the last 44 years. Herring, together with the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus, the major food for cod larvae, were the main predictors of cod recruitment. These predictors were of equivalent importance, worked additively, and explained different parts of the dynamics in cod recruitment. I suggest that intensive harvesting of cod has released herring from predator control, and that a large population of herring suppresses cod recruitment through predation on eggs and larvae. This feedback mechanism can promote alternative stable states and therefore cause hysteresis to occur under changing conditions; however, harvesting of herring might at present prevent a shift in the ecosystem to a herring-dominated state.