Coccolithophore bloom detection in the north east Atlantic using SeaWiFS: Algorithm description, application and sensitivity analysis

Coccolithophores are the largest source of calcium carbonate in the oceans and are considered to play an important role in oceanic carbon cycles. Current methods to detect the presence of coccolithophore blooms from Earth observation data often produce high numbers of false positives in shelf seas and coastal zones due to the spectral similarity between coccolithophores and other suspended particulates. Current methods are therefore unable to characterise the bloom events in shelf seas and coastal zones, despite the importance of these phytoplankton in the global carbon cycle. A novel approach to detect the presence of coccolithophore blooms from Earth observation data is presented. The method builds upon previous optical work and uses a statistical framework to combine spectral, spatial and temporal information to produce maps of coccolithophore bloom extent. Validation and verification results for an area of the north east Atlantic are presented using an in situ database (N = 432) and all available SeaWiFS data for 2003 and 2004. Verification results show that the approach produces a temporal seasonal signal consistent with biological studies of these phytoplankton. Validation using the in situ coccolithophore cell count database shows a high correct recognition rate of 80% and a low false-positive rate of 0.14 (in comparison to 63% and 0.34 respectively for the established, purely spectral approach). To guide its broader use, a full sensitivity analysis for the algorithm parameters is presented.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.