Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

Coastal upwelling and downwelling forcing of circulation in a semi-enclosed bay: Ria de Vigo

Semi-enclosed bays in upwelling regions are exposed to forcing related to winds, currents and buoyancy over the shelf. The influence of this external forcing is moderated by factors such as connectivity to the open ocean, shelter by surrounding topography, dimensions of the bay, and freshwater outflows. Such bays, preferred locations for ports, mariculture, marine industry, recreational activities and coastal settlement, present a range of characteristics, understanding of which is necessary to their rational management. Observations in such a semi-enclosed bay, the Ria de Vigo in Spain, are used to characterize the influence of upwelling and downwelling pulses on its circulation. In this location, near the northern limit of the Iberian upwelling system, upwelling events dominate during a short summer season and downwelling events the rest of the year. The ria response to the external forcing is central to nutrient supply and resultant plankton productivity that supports its high level of cultured mussel production. Intensive field studies in September 2006 and June 2007 captured a downwelling event and an upwelling event, respectively. Data from eight current profiler moorings and boat-based MiniBat/ADCP surveys provided an unprecedented quasi-synoptic view of the distribution of water masses and circulation patterns in any ria. In the outer ria, circulation was dominated by the introduction of wind-driven alongshore flow from the external continental shelf through the ria entrances and its interaction with the topography. In the middle ria, circulation was primarily related to the upwelling/downwelling cycle, with a cool, salty and dense lower layer penetrating to the inner ria during upwelling over the shelf. A warmer, lower salinity and less dense surface layer of coastal waters flowed inward during downwelling. Without external forcing, the inner ria responded primarily to tides and buoyancy changes related to land runoff. Under both upwelling and downwelling conditions, the flushing of the ria involved shelf responses to wind pulses. Their persistence for a few days was sufficient to allow waters from the continental shelf to penetrate the innermost ria. Longer term observations supported by numerical modeling are required to confirm the generality of such flushing events in the ria and determine their typical frequency, while comparative studies should explore how these scenarios fit into the range of conditions experienced in other semi-enclosed bays.