Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll

The Black Sea ecosystem experienced severe eutrophication-related degradation during the 1970s and 1980s. However, in recent years the Black Sea has shown some signs of recovery which are often attributed to a reduction in nutrient loading. Here, SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (chl a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is used to investigate spatio-temporal patterns in Black Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to explore the potential role of climate in the Black Sea's recovery. Maps of chl a anomalies, calculated relative to the 8 year mean, emphasize spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea, particularly between the riverine-influenced Northwest Shelf and the open Black Sea. Evolution of phytoplankton biomass has shown significant spatial variability of persistence of optimal bloom conditions between three major regions of the Black Sea. With the exception of 2001, chl a has generally decreased during our 8 year time-series. However, the winter of 2000–2001 was anomalously warm with low wind stress, resulting in reduced vertical mixing of the water column and retention of nutrients in the photic zone. These conditions were associated with anomalously high levels of chl a throughout much of the open Black Sea during the following spring and summer. The unusual climatic conditions occurring in 2001 may have triggered a shift in the Black Sea's chl a regime. The long-term significance of this recent shift is still uncertain but illustrates a non-linear response to climate forcing that makes future ecosystem changes in the pelagic Black Sea ecosystem difficult to predict.

Living in warmer, more acidic oceans retards physiological recovery from tidal emersion in the velvet swimming crab, Necora puber

The distribution patterns of many species in the intertidal zone are partly determined by their ability to survive and recover from tidal emersion. During emersion, most crustaceans experience gill collapse, impairing gas exchange. Such collapse generates a state of hypoxemia and a hypercapnia-induced respiratory acidosis, leading to hyperlactaemia and metabolic acidosis. However, how such physiological responses to emersion are modified by prior exposure to elevated CO2 and temperature combinations, indicative of future climate change scenarios, is not known. We therefore investigated key physiological responses of velvet swimming crabs, Necora puber, kept for 14 days at one of four pCO(2)/temperature treatments (400 mu atm/10 degrees C, 1000 mu atm/10 degrees C, 400 mu atm/15 degrees C or 1000 mu atm/15 degrees C) to experimental emersion and recovery. Pre-exposure to elevated pCO(2) and temperature increased pre-emersion bicarbonate ion concentrations [HCO3-], increasing resistance to short periods of emersion (90 min). However, there was still a significant acidosis following 180 min emersion in all treatments. The recovery of extracellular acid-base via the removal of extracellular pCO(2) and lactate after emersion was significantly retarded by exposure to both elevated temperature and pCO(2). If elevated environmental pCO(2) and temperature lead to slower recovery after emersion, then some predominantly subtidal species that also inhabit the low to mid shore, such as N. puber, may have a reduced physiological capacity to retain their presence in the low intertidal zone, ultimately affecting their bathymetric range of distribution, as well as the structure and diversity of intertidal assemblages.

Optical assessment of impact and recovery of sedimentary pH profiles in ocean acidification and carbon capture and storage research

Available methods for measuring the impact of ocean acidification (OA) and leakage from carbon capture and storage (CCS) on marine sedimentary pH profiles are unsuitable for replicated experimental setups. To overcome this issue, a novel optical sensor application is presented, using off-the-shelf optode technology (MOPP). The application is validated using microprofiling, during a CCS leakage experiment, where the impact and recovery from a high CO2 plume was investigated in two types of natural marine sediment. MOPP offered user-friendliness, speed of data acquisition, robustness to sediment type, and large sediment depth range. This ensemble of characteristics overcomes many of the challenges found with other pH measuring methods, in OA and CCS research. The impact varied greatly between sediment types, depending on baseline pH variability and sediment permeability. Sedimentary pH profile recovery was quick, with profiles close to control conditions 24 h after the cessation of the leak. However, variability of pH within the finer sediment was still apparent 4 days into the recovery phase. Habitat characteristics need therefore to be considered, to truly disentangle high CO2 perturbation impacts on benthic systems. Impacts on natural communities depend not only on the pH gradient caused by perturbation, but also on other processes that outlive the perturbation, adding complexity to recovery.

Recovery from TBT pollution in English Channel environments: A problem solved?

Following recognition of effects in the 1980s, tributyltin (TBT) has been monitored at sites in the English Channel to evaluate the prognosis for biota – spanning the introduction of restrictions on TBT use on small boats and the recent phase-out on the global fleet. We describe how persistence and impact of TBT in clams Scrobicularia plana has changed during this period in Southampton Water and Poole Harbour. TBT contamination (and loss) in water, sediment and clams reflects the abundance and type of vessel activity: half-times in sediment (up to 8y in Poole, 33y in Southampton) are longest near commercial shipping. Recovery of clam populations – slowest in TBT-contaminated deposits – provides a useful biological measure of legislative efficacy in estuaries. On rocky shores, recovery from imposex in Nucella lapillus is evident at many sites but, near ports, is prolonged by shipping impacts, including sediment legacy, for example, in the Fal.

Recovery of photosynthesis parameters fromin situprofiles of phytoplankton production

We examine a model of the rate of phytoplankton production in the ocean and its dependence on depth. The model is analysed as a function of photosynthesis parameters and it is shown that: (i) production profiles with depth are determined uniquely by the parameter values; (ii) daily water column production is not uniquely determined by the parameter values; (iii) a unique combination of parameters exists for which the model best fits a measured production profile. An inverse procedure is developed to recover photosynthesis parameters from measured profiles of primary production, and its performance tested by application to profiles of primary production collected at the Hawaii Ocean Time Series. For each profile tested, the method is successful in recovery of the photosynthesis parameters. The method can be applied to the estimation of photosynthesis parameters from data on in situ production profiles, which have been collected globally for more than half a century, thereby augmenting the world archive of these parameters for application in ecosystem modelling and estimation of primary production from remotely sensed data.