Modelling the Influence of Major Baltic Inflows on Near-Bottom Conditions at the Entrance of the Gulf of Finland

A coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was implemented in order to estimate the effects of Major Baltic Inflows on the near-bottom hydrophysical and biogeochemical conditions in the northern Baltic Proper and the western Gulf of Finland during the period 1991�2009. We compared results of a realistic reference run to the results of an experimental run where Major Baltic Inflows were suppressed. Further to the expected overall decrease in bottom salinity, this modelling experiment confirms that in the absence of strong saltwater inflows the deep areas of the Baltic Proper would become more anoxic, while in the shallower areas (western Gulf of Finland) near-bottom average conditions improve. Our experiment revealed that typical estuarine circulation results in the sporadic emergence of short-lasting events of near-bottom anoxia in the western Gulf of Finland due to transport of water masses from the Baltic Proper. Extrapolating our results beyond the modelled period, we speculate that the further deepening of the halocline in the Baltic Proper is likely to prevent inflows of anoxic water to the Gulf of Finland and in the longer term would lead to improvement in near-bottom conditions in the Baltic Proper. Our results reaffirm the importance of accurate representation of salinity dynamics in coupled Baltic Sea models serving as a basis for credible hindcast and future projection simulations of biogeochemical conditions.

Assessing non-market benefits of seagrass restoration in the Gulf of Gdańsk

Seagrass meadows (Zostera marina) are an important ecosystem in the coastal environment of the Baltic Sea. This study employs a discrete choice experiment to value a set of non-market benefits provided by seagrass meadows in the Gulf of Gdańsk, Poland. The benefits valued in this study are a reduction of filamentous algae in the water and on the beach; access to seagrass meadows for boaters and divers; and improved water clarity. Results show significant willingness to pay for each attribute and differences of value estimates across different groups of survey respondents. It is discussed how to link choice attributes and estimated values with established ecosystem benefit categories in order to facilitate value transfer.

Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

Loadings of dissolved organic matter and nutrients from the Neva River into the Gulf of Finland – Biogeochemical composition and spatial distribution within the salinity gradient

We studied the loadings of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and nutrients from the Neva River into the Eastern Gulf of Finland, as well as their distribution within the salinity gradient. Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) ranged from 390 to 840 μM, and were related to absorption of colored DOM (CDOM) at 350 nm, aCDOM(350), ranging from 2.70 to 17.8 m-1. With increasing salinity both DOC and aCDOM decreased, whereas the slope of aCDOM spectra, SCDOM(300-700), ranging from 14.3 to 21.2 μm-1, increased with salinity.

Loadings of dissolved organic matter and nutrients from the Neva River into the Gulf of Finland – Biogeochemical composition and spatial distribution within the salinity gradient

We studied the loadings of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and nutrients from the Neva River into the Eastern Gulf of Finland, as well as their distribution within the salinity gradient. Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) ranged from 390 to 840 μM, and were related to absorption of colored DOM (CDOM) at 350 nm, aCDOM(350), ranging from 2.70 to 17.8 m-1. With increasing salinity both DOC and aCDOM decreased, whereas the slope of aCDOM spectra, SCDOM(300-700), ranging from 14.3 to 21.2 μm-1, increased with salinity.