Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Individual-based modelling of the development and transport of a Karenia mikimotoi bloom on the North-West European continental shelf

In 2006, a large and prolonged bloom of the dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi occurred in Scottish coastal waters, causing extensive mortalities of benthic organisms including annelids and molluscs and some species of fish ( Davidson et al., 2009). A coupled hydrodynamic-algal transport model was developed to track the progression of the bloom around the Scottish coast during June–September 2006 and hence investigate the processes controlling the bloom dynamics. Within this individual-based model, cells were capable of growth, mortality and phototaxis and were transported by physical processes of advection and turbulent diffusion, using current velocities extracted from operational simulations of the MRCS ocean circulation model of the North-west European continental shelf. Vertical and horizontal turbulent diffusion of cells are treated using a random walk approach. Comparison of model output with remotely sensed chlorophyll concentrations and cell counts from coastal monitoring stations indicated that it was necessary to include multiple spatially distinct seed populations of K. mikimotoi at separate locations on the shelf edge to capture the qualitative pattern of bloom transport and development. We interpret this as indicating that the source population was being transported northwards by the Hebridean slope current from where colonies of K. mikimotoi were injected onto the continental shelf by eddies or other transient exchange processes. The model was used to investigate the effects on simulated K. mikimotoi transport and dispersal of: (1) the distribution of the initial seed population; (2) algal growth and mortality; (3) water temperature; (4) the vertical movement of particles by diurnal migration and eddy diffusion; (5) the relative role of the shelf edge and coastal currents; (6) the role of wind forcing. The numerical experiments emphasized the requirement for a physiologically based biological model and indicated that improved modelling of future blooms will potentially benefit from better parameterisation of temperature dependence of both growth and mortality and finer spatial and temporal hydrodynamic resolution.

Individual-based modelling of the development and transport of a Karenia mikimotoi bloom on the North-West European continental shelf

In 2006, a large and prolonged bloom of the dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi occurred in Scottish coastal waters, causing extensive mortalities of benthic organisms including annelids and molluscs and some species of fish ( Davidson et al., 2009). A coupled hydrodynamic-algal transport model was developed to track the progression of the bloom around the Scottish coast during June–September 2006 and hence investigate the processes controlling the bloom dynamics. Within this individual-based model, cells were capable of growth, mortality and phototaxis and were transported by physical processes of advection and turbulent diffusion, using current velocities extracted from operational simulations of the MRCS ocean circulation model of the North-west European continental shelf. Vertical and horizontal turbulent diffusion of cells are treated using a random walk approach. Comparison of model output with remotely sensed chlorophyll concentrations and cell counts from coastal monitoring stations indicated that it was necessary to include multiple spatially distinct seed populations of K. mikimotoi at separate locations on the shelf edge to capture the qualitative pattern of bloom transport and development. We interpret this as indicating that the source population was being transported northwards by the Hebridean slope current from where colonies of K. mikimotoi were injected onto the continental shelf by eddies or other transient exchange processes. The model was used to investigate the effects on simulated K. mikimotoi transport and dispersal of: (1) the distribution of the initial seed population; (2) algal growth and mortality; (3) water temperature; (4) the vertical movement of particles by diurnal migration and eddy diffusion; (5) the relative role of the shelf edge and coastal currents; (6) the role of wind forcing. The numerical experiments emphasized the requirement for a physiologically based biological model and indicated that improved modelling of future blooms will potentially benefit from better parameterisation of temperature dependence of both growth and mortality and finer spatial and temporal hydrodynamic resolution.

Co-production of bio-oil and propylene through the hydrothermal liquefaction of polyhydroxybutyrate producing cyanobacteria

A polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) producing cyanobacteria was converted through hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) into propylene and a bio-oil suitable for advanced biofuel production. HTL of model compounds demonstrated that in contrast to proteins and carbohydrates, no synergistic effects were detected when converting PHB in the presence of algae. Subsequently, Synechocystis cf. salina, which had accumulated 7.5wt% PHB was converted via HTL (15% dry weight loading, 340°C). The reaction gave an overall propylene yield of 2.6%, higher than that obtained from the model compounds, in addition to a bio-oil with a low nitrogen content of 4.6%. No propylene was recovered from the alternative non-PHB producing cyanobacterial strains screened, suggesting that PHB is the source of propylene. PHB producing microorganisms could therefore be used as a feedstock for a biorefinery to produce polypropylene and advanced biofuels, with the level of propylene being proportional to the accumulated amount of PHB.

Co-production of bio-oil and propylene through the hydrothermal liquefaction of polyhydroxybutyrate producing cyanobacteria

A polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) producing cyanobacteria was converted through hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) into propylene and a bio-oil suitable for advanced biofuel production. HTL of model compounds demonstrated that in contrast to proteins and carbohydrates, no synergistic effects were detected when converting PHB in the presence of algae. Subsequently, Synechocystis cf. salina, which had accumulated 7.5wt% PHB was converted via HTL (15% dry weight loading, 340°C). The reaction gave an overall propylene yield of 2.6%, higher than that obtained from the model compounds, in addition to a bio-oil with a low nitrogen content of 4.6%. No propylene was recovered from the alternative non-PHB producing cyanobacterial strains screened, suggesting that PHB is the source of propylene. PHB producing microorganisms could therefore be used as a feedstock for a biorefinery to produce polypropylene and advanced biofuels, with the level of propylene being proportional to the accumulated amount of PHB.

Assessing hydrothermal liquefaction for the production of bio-oil and enhanced metal recovery from microalgae cultivated on acid mine drainage

The hydrothermal liquefaction(HTL) of algal biomass is a promising route to viable second generation biofuels. In this investigation HTL was assessed for the valorisation of algae used in the remediation of acid mine drainage (AMD). Initially the HTL process was evaluated using Arthrospira platensis (Spirulina) with additional metal sulphates to simulate metal remediation. Optimised conditions were then used to process a natural algal community (predominantly Chlamydomonas sp.) cultivated under two scenarios: high uptake and low uptake of metals from AMD. High metal concentrations appear to catalyse the conversion to bio-oil, and do not significantly affect the heteroatom content or higher heating value of the bio-oil produced. The associated metals were found to partition almost exclusively into the solid residue, favourable for potential metal recovery. High metal loadings also caused partitioning of phosphates from the aqueous phase to the solid phase, potentially compromising attempts to recycle process water as a growth supplement. HTL was therefore found to be a suitable method of processing algae used in AMD remediation, producing a crude oil suitable for upgrading into hydrocarbon fuels, an aqueous and gas stream suitable for supplementing the algal growth and the partitioning of most contaminant metals to the solid residue where they would be readily amenable for recovery and/or disposal.

Assessing hydrothermal liquefaction for the production of bio-oil and enhanced metal recovery from microalgae cultivated on acid mine drainage

The hydrothermal liquefaction(HTL) of algal biomass is a promising route to viable second generation biofuels. In this investigation HTL was assessed for the valorisation of algae used in the remediation of acid mine drainage (AMD). Initially the HTL process was evaluated using Arthrospira platensis (Spirulina) with additional metal sulphates to simulate metal remediation. Optimised conditions were then used to process a natural algal community (predominantly Chlamydomonas sp.) cultivated under two scenarios: high uptake and low uptake of metals from AMD. High metal concentrations appear to catalyse the conversion to bio-oil, and do not significantly affect the heteroatom content or higher heating value of the bio-oil produced. The associated metals were found to partition almost exclusively into the solid residue, favourable for potential metal recovery. High metal loadings also caused partitioning of phosphates from the aqueous phase to the solid phase, potentially compromising attempts to recycle process water as a growth supplement. HTL was therefore found to be a suitable method of processing algae used in AMD remediation, producing a crude oil suitable for upgrading into hydrocarbon fuels, an aqueous and gas stream suitable for supplementing the algal growth and the partitioning of most contaminant metals to the solid residue where they would be readily amenable for recovery and/or disposal.

Growth and shrinkage in Antarctic krill Euphausia superba is sex-dependent

ABSTRACT: The ability of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba Dana to withstand the overwintering period is critical to their success. Laboratory evidence suggests that krill may shrink in body length during this time in response to the low availability of food. Nevertheless, verification that krill can shrink in the natural environment is lacking because winter data are difficult to obtain. One of the few sources of winter krill population data is from commercial vessels. We examined length-frequency data of adult krill (>35 mm total body length) obtained from commercial vessels in the Scotia-Weddell region and compared our results with those obtained from a combination of science and commercial sampling operations carried out in this region at other times of the year. Our analyses revealed body-length shrinkage in adult females but not males during overwinter, based on both the tracking of modal size classes over seasons and sex-ratio patterns. Other explanatory factors, such as differential mortality, immigration and emigration, could not explain the observed differences. The same pattern was also observed at South Georgia and in the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Fitted seasonally modulated von Bertalanffy growth functions predicted a pattern of overwintering shrinkage in all body-length classes of females, but only stagnation in growth in males. This shrinkage most likely reflects morphometric changes resulting from the contraction of the ovaries and is not necessarily an outcome of winter hardship. The sex-dependent changes that we observed need to be incorporated into life cycle and population dynamic models of this species, particularly those used in managing the fishery. KEY WORDS: Southern Ocean · Population dynamics · Production · Life cycle · Fishery

Growth and shrinkage in Antarctic krill Euphausia superba is sex-dependent

ABSTRACT: The ability of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba Dana to withstand the overwintering period is critical to their success. Laboratory evidence suggests that krill may shrink in body length during this time in response to the low availability of food. Nevertheless, verification that krill can shrink in the natural environment is lacking because winter data are difficult to obtain. One of the few sources of winter krill population data is from commercial vessels. We examined length-frequency data of adult krill (>35 mm total body length) obtained from commercial vessels in the Scotia-Weddell region and compared our results with those obtained from a combination of science and commercial sampling operations carried out in this region at other times of the year. Our analyses revealed body-length shrinkage in adult females but not males during overwinter, based on both the tracking of modal size classes over seasons and sex-ratio patterns. Other explanatory factors, such as differential mortality, immigration and emigration, could not explain the observed differences. The same pattern was also observed at South Georgia and in the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Fitted seasonally modulated von Bertalanffy growth functions predicted a pattern of overwintering shrinkage in all body-length classes of females, but only stagnation in growth in males. This shrinkage most likely reflects morphometric changes resulting from the contraction of the ovaries and is not necessarily an outcome of winter hardship. The sex-dependent changes that we observed need to be incorporated into life cycle and population dynamic models of this species, particularly those used in managing the fishery. KEY WORDS: Southern Ocean · Population dynamics · Production · Life cycle · Fishery

Coralline algae in a changing world: integrating ecological, physiological, and geochemical responses to global change

Coralline algae are globally distributed benthic primary producers that secrete calcium carbonate skeletons. In the context of ocean acidification, they have received much recent attention due to the potential vulnerability of their high-Mg calcite skeletons and their many important ecological roles. Herein, we summarize what is known about coralline algal ecology and physiology, providing context to understand their responses to global climate change. We review the impacts of these changes, including ocean acidification, rising temperatures, and pollution, on coralline algal growth and calcification. We also assess the ongoing use of coralline algae as marine climate proxies via calibration of skeletal morphology and geochemistry to environmental conditions. Finally, we indicate critical gaps in our understanding of coralline algal calcification and physiology and highlight key areas for future research. These include analytical areas that recently have become more accessible, such as resolving phylogenetic relationships at all taxonomic ranks, elucidating the genes regulating algal photosynthesis and calcification, and calibrating skeletal geochemical metrics, as well as research directions that are broadly applicable to global change ecology, such as the importance of community-scale and long-term experiments in stress response.

Coralline algae (Rhodophyta) in a changing world: integrating ecological, physiological, and geochemical responses to global change

Coralline algae are globally distributed benthic primary producers that secrete calcium carbonate skeletons. In the context of ocean acidification, they have received much recent attention due to the potential vulnerability of their high-Mg calcite skeletons and their many important ecological roles. Herein, we summarize what is known about coralline algal ecology and physiology, providing context to understand their responses to global climate change. We review the impacts of these changes, including ocean acidification, rising temperatures, and pollution, on coralline algal growth and calcification. We also assess the ongoing use of coralline algae as marine climate proxies via calibration of skeletal morphology and geochemistry to environmental conditions. Finally, we indicate critical gaps in our understanding of coralline algal calcification and physiology and highlight key areas for future research. These include analytical areas that recently have become more accessible, such as resolving phylogenetic relationships at all taxonomic ranks, elucidating the genes regulating algal photosynthesis and calcification, and calibrating skeletal geochemical metrics, as well as research directions that are broadly applicable to global change ecology, such as the importance of community-scale and long-term experiments in stress response.

Evaluation of the Genotoxic and Physiological Effects of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (BDE-209) and Dechlorane Plus (DP) Flame Retardants in Marine Mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis)

Dechlorane Plus (DP) is a proposed alternative to the legacy flame retardant decabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-209), a major component of Deca-BDE formulations. In contrast to BDE-209, toxicity data for DP are scarce and often focused on mice. Validated dietary in vivo exposure of the marine bivalve (Mytilus galloprovincialis) to both flame retardants did not induce effects at the physiological level (algal clearance rate), but induced DNA damage, as determined by the comet assay, at all concentrations tested. Micronuclei formation was induced by both DP and BDE-209 at the highest exposure concentrations (100 and 200 mu g/L, respectively, at 18% above controls). DP caused effects similar to those by BDE-209 but at lower exposure concentrations (5.6, 56, and 100 mu g/L for DP and 56, 100, and 200 mu g/L for BDE-209). Moreover, bioaccumulation of DP was shown to be concentration dependent, in contrast to BDE-209. The results described suggest that DP poses a greater genotoxic potential than BDE-209

Evaluation of the Genotoxic and Physiological Effects of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (BDE-209) and Dechlorane Plus (DP) Flame Retardants in Marine Mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis)

Dechlorane Plus (DP) is a proposed alternative to the legacy flame retardant decabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-209), a major component of Deca-BDE formulations. In contrast to BDE-209, toxicity data for DP are scarce and often focused on mice. Validated dietary in vivo exposure of the marine bivalve (Mytilus galloprovincialis) to both flame retardants did not induce effects at the physiological level (algal clearance rate), but induced DNA damage, as determined by the comet assay, at all concentrations tested. Micronuclei formation was induced by both DP and BDE-209 at the highest exposure concentrations (100 and 200 mu g/L, respectively, at 18% above controls). DP caused effects similar to those by BDE-209 but at lower exposure concentrations (5.6, 56, and 100 mu g/L for DP and 56, 100, and 200 mu g/L for BDE-209). Moreover, bioaccumulation of DP was shown to be concentration dependent, in contrast to BDE-209. The results described suggest that DP poses a greater genotoxic potential than BDE-209

Modelling impacts and recovery in benthic communities exposed to localised high CO2

Regulations pertaining to carbon dioxide capture with offshore storage (CCS) require an understanding of the potential localised environmental impacts and demonstrably suitable monitoring practices. This study uses a marine ecosystem model to examine a comprehensive range of hypothetical CO2 leakage scenarios, quantifying both impact and recovery time within the benthic system. Whilst significant mortalities and long recovery times were projected for the larger and longer term scenarios, shorter-term or low level exposures lead to reduced projected impacts. This suggests that efficient monitoring and leak mitigation strategies, coupled with appropriate selection of storage sites can effectively limit concerns regarding localised environmental impacts from CCS. The feedbacks and interactions between physiological and ecological responses simulated reveal that benthic responses to CO2 leakage could be complex. This type of modelling investigation can aid the understanding of impact potential, the role of benthic community recovery and inform the design of baseline and monitoring surveys.

Modelling impacts and recovery in benthic communities exposed to localised high CO2

Regulations pertaining to carbon dioxide capture with offshore storage (CCS) require an understanding of the potential localised environmental impacts and demonstrably suitable monitoring practices. This study uses a marine ecosystem model to examine a comprehensive range of hypothetical CO2 leakage scenarios, quantifying both impact and recovery time within the benthic system. Whilst significant mortalities and long recovery times were projected for the larger and longer term scenarios, shorter-term or low level exposures lead to reduced projected impacts. This suggests that efficient monitoring and leak mitigation strategies, coupled with appropriate selection of storage sites can effectively limit concerns regarding localised environmental impacts from CCS. The feedbacks and interactions between physiological and ecological responses simulated reveal that benthic responses to CO2 leakage could be complex. This type of modelling investigation can aid the understanding of impact potential, the role of benthic community recovery and inform the design of baseline and monitoring surveys.