Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Climate-driven shifts in species' distributions may exacerbate the impacts of storm disturbances on North-east Atlantic kelp forests

Physical disturbance through wave action is a major determinant of kelp forest structure. The North-east Atlantic storm season of 2013–14 was unusually severe; the south coast of the UK was subjected to 6 of the 12 most intense storms recorded in the past 5 years. Inshore significant wave heights and periods exceeded 7 m and 13 s with two storms classified as ‘1-in-30 year’ events. We examined the impacts of the storm season on kelp canopies at three study sites. Monospecific canopies comprising Laminaria hyperborea were unaffected by storm disturbance. However, at one study site a mixed canopy comprising Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima and L. hyperborea was significantly altered by the storms, due to decreased abundances of the former two species. Quantification of freshly severed stipes suggested that the ‘warm water’ kelp L. ochroleuca was more susceptible to storm damage than L. hyperborea. Overall, kelp canopies were highly resistant to storm disturbance because of the low vulnerability of L. hyperborea to intense wave action. However, if climate-driven shifts in kelp species distributions result in more mixed canopies, as predicted, then resistance to storm disturbance may be eroded.

Climate-driven shifts in species' distributions may exacerbate the impacts of storm disturbances on North-east Atlantic kelp forests

Physical disturbance through wave action is a major determinant of kelp forest structure. The North-east Atlantic storm season of 2013–14 was unusually severe; the south coast of the UK was subjected to 6 of the 12 most intense storms recorded in the past 5 years. Inshore significant wave heights and periods exceeded 7 m and 13 s with two storms classified as ‘1-in-30 year’ events. We examined the impacts of the storm season on kelp canopies at three study sites. Monospecific canopies comprising Laminaria hyperborea were unaffected by storm disturbance. However, at one study site a mixed canopy comprising Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima and L. hyperborea was significantly altered by the storms, due to decreased abundances of the former two species. Quantification of freshly severed stipes suggested that the ‘warm water’ kelp L. ochroleuca was more susceptible to storm damage than L. hyperborea. Overall, kelp canopies were highly resistant to storm disturbance because of the low vulnerability of L. hyperborea to intense wave action. However, if climate-driven shifts in kelp species distributions result in more mixed canopies, as predicted, then resistance to storm disturbance may be eroded.