Impact of climate change on Antarctic krill

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba (hereafter ‘krill’) occur in regions undergoing rapid environmental change, particularly loss of winter sea ice. During recent years, harvesting of krill has increased, possibly enhancing stress on krill and Antarctic ecosystems. Here we review the overall impact of climate change on krill and Antarctic ecosystems, discuss implications for an ecosystem-based fisheries management approach and identify critical knowledge gaps. Sea ice decline, ocean warming and other environmental stressors act in concert to modify the abundance, distribution and life cycle of krill. Although some of these changes can have positive effects on krill, their cumulative impact is most likely negative. Recruitment, driven largely by the winter survival of larval krill, is probably the population parameter most susceptible to climate change. Predicting changes to krill populations is urgent, because they will seriously impact Antarctic ecosystems. Such predictions, however, are complicated by an intense inter-annual variability in recruitment success and krill abundance. To improve the responsiveness of the ecosystem-based management approach adopted by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), critical knowledge gaps need to be filled. In addition to a better understanding of the factors influencing recruitment, management will require a better understanding of the resilience and the genetic plasticity of krill life stages, and a quantitative understanding of under-ice and benthic habitat use. Current precautionary management measures of CCAMLR should be maintained until a better understanding of these processes has been achieved.

Carbon fluxes and pelagic ecosystem dynamics near two western Antarctic Peninsula Adélie penguin colonies: an inverse model approach

An inverse food-web model for the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) pelagic food web was constrained with data from Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (PAL-LTER) project annual austral summer sampling cruises. Model solutions were generated for 2 regions with Adelie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae colonies presenting different population trends (a northern and a southern colony) for a 12 yr period (1995-2006). Counter to the standard paradigm, comparisons of carbon flow through bacteria, microzooplankton, and krill showed that the diatom-krill-top predator food chain is not the dominant pathway for organic carbon exchanges. The food web is more complex, including significant contributions by microzooplankton and the microbial loop. Using both inverse model results and network indices, it appears that in the northern WAP the food web is dominated by the microbial food web, with a temporal trend toward its increasing importance. The dominant pathway for the southern WAP food web varies from year to year, with no detectable temporal trend toward dominance of microzooplankton versus krill. In addition, sensitivity analyses indicated that the northern colony of Adelie penguins, whose population size has been declining over the past 35 yr, appears to have sufficient krill during summer to sustain its basic metabolic needs and rear chicks, suggesting the importance of other processes in regulating the Adelie population decline.

Parameterisation of bivalve functional traits for mechanistic eco-physiological dynamic energy budget (DEB) models

Mechanistic models such as those based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory are emergent ecomechanics tools to investigate the extent of fitness in organisms through changes in life history traits as explained by bioenergetic principles. The rapid growth in interest around this approach originates from the mechanistic characteristics of DEB, which are based on a number of rules dictating the use of mass and energy flow through organisms. One apparent bottleneck in DEB applications comes from the estimations of DEB parameters which are based on mathematical and statistical methods (covariation method). The parameterisation process begins with the knowledge of some functional traits of a target organism (e. g. embryo, sexual maturity and ultimate body size, feeding and assimilation rates, maintenance costs), identified from the literature or laboratory experiments. However, considering the prominent role of the mechanistic approach in ecology, the reduction of possible uncertainties is an important objective. We propose a revaluation of the laboratory procedures commonly used in ecological studies to estimate DEB parameters in marine bivalves. Our experimental organism was Brachidontes pharaonis. We supported our proposal with a validation exercise which compared life history traits as obtained by DEBs (implemented with parameters obtained using classical laboratory methods) with the actual set of species traits obtained in the field. Correspondence between the 2 approaches was very high (>95%) with respect to estimating both size and fitness. Our results demonstrate a good agreement between field data and model output for the effect of temperature and food density on age-size curve, maximum body size and total gamete production per life span. The mechanistic approach is a promising method of providing accurate predictions in a world that is under in creasing anthropogenic pressure.

Variation in ocean colour may help predict cod and haddock recruitment

Characteristics of the spring and fall phytoplankton blooms in spawning areas on the Scotian Shelf, Canada, were estimated from remote sensing data. These blooms, along with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation, were used to explain variation in the recruitment of 4 populations of cod and haddock. We tested the effects of the timing of the bloom using the chlorophyll a (chl a) signal, the maximum amount of chl a, the timing of the diatom bloom, and the maximum relative dominance of diatoms on the recruitment (to Age 1) of cod and haddock on the Scotian Shelf. Models were run separately for the effects of the spring and fall blooms. Only 3 of 10 models tested (0-lag) explained significant (80 to 92%) variation in recruitment. However, the performance of these models was not consistent across populations or species, suggesting that generalities about how spring and fall phytoplankton blooms affect recruitment cannot yet be made. The differences among models suggest that fish larvae are probably adapted locally to food production and thus indirectly to the characteristics of the phytoplankton bloom, which in turn are influenced by regional (meso-scale) oceanographic conditions.

Phenological trends and trophic mismatch across multiple levels of a North Sea pelagic food web

Differential phenological responses to climate among species are predicted to disrupt trophic interactions, but datasets to evaluate this are scarce. We compared phenological trends for species from 4 levels of a North Sea food web over 24 yr when sea surface temperature (SST) increased significantly. We found little consistency in phenological trends between adjacent trophic levels, no significant relationships with SST, and no significant pairwise correlations between predator and prey phenologies, suggesting that trophic mismatching is occurring. Finer resolution data on timing of peak energy demand (mid-chick-rearing) for 5 seabird species at a major North Sea colony were compared to modelled daily changes in length of 0-group (young of the year) lesser sandeels Ammodytes marinus. The date at which sandeels reached a given threshold length became significantly later during the study. Although the phenology of all the species except shags also became later, these changes were insufficient to keep pace with sandeel length, and thus mean length (and energy value) of 0-group sandeels at mid-chick-rearing showed net declines. The magnitude of declines in energy value varied among the seabirds, being more marked in species showing no phenological response (shag, 4.80 kJ) and in later breeding species feeding on larger sandeels (kittiwake, 2.46 kJ) where, due to the relationship between sandeel length and energy value being non-linear, small reductions in length result in relatively large reductions in energy. However, despite the decline in energy value of 0-group sandeels during chick-rearing, there was no evidence of any adverse effect on breeding success for any of the seabird species. Trophic mismatch appears to be prevalent within the North Sea pelagic food web, suggesting that ecosystem functioning may be disrupted.

Temporal changes in plankton of the North Sea: community shifts and environmental drivers

This paper analyses long-term and seasonal changes in the North Sea plankton community during the period 1970 to 2008. Based on Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data covering 38 yr, major changes in both phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance and community structure were identified. Regime changes were detected around 1978, 1989 and 1998. The first 2 changes have been discussed in the literature and are defined as a cold episodic event (1978) and a regime shift towards a warm dynamic regime (1989). The effect of these 2 regime changes on plankton indicators was assessed and checked against previous studies. The 1998 change represents a shift in the abundance and seasonal patterns of dinoflagellates and the dominant zooplankton group, the neritic copepods. Furthermore, environmental factors such as air temperature, wind speed and the North Atlantic water inflow were identified as potential drivers of change in seasonal patterns, and the most-likely environmental causes for detected changes were assessed. We suggest that a change in the balance of dissolved nutrients driven by these environmental factors was the cause of the latest change in plankton community structure, which in turn could have affected the North Sea fish community.

Shortened duration of the annual Neocalanus plumchrus biomass peak in the Northeast Pacific

The calanoid copepod Neocalan us plumchrus (Marukawa) is a dominant member of the spring mesozooplankton in the subarctic North Pacific and Bering Sea. Previous studies have shown interdecadal and latitudinal variation in seasonal developmental timing, with peak biomass occurring earlier in years and places with warmer upper ocean temperatures. Because N. plumchrus normally has a single dominant annual cohort, its seasonal timing can be indexed from measurements of total population biomass or by following progressive changes in stage composition. Early studies empirically found that peak upper ocean biomass occurred when about half of the pre-dormant population had reached copepodite stage 5 (C5). However, more recent comparisons derived from recent Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data now show peak biomass when a larger fraction (> 80%) of the population is at C5. CPR samples the surface 10 to 15 m, but comparisons to depth-resolved BIONESS data show that this discrepancy is not an artefact of sampling depth. Other causes are either a prolongation of duration of pre-dormant C5 or a narrowing of the age range making up the annual cohort. We assessed changes in cohort width using a modification of Greve's cumulative percentile method, and found that average cohort widths in the Alaska Gyre were significantly narrower in 2000-2007 than in 1957-1965 (1968-1980 were intermediate). Net tow sampling of Strait of Georgia populations showed a similar significant narrowing of cohorts in the 2003-2005 sampling period. This study provides evidence that in addition to the shift to an earlier occurrence of peak biomass reported previously, the duration of the peak has also decreased in the last decade.

Unanticipated biological changes and global warming

Evidence of global warming is now unequivocal, and studies suggest that it has started to influence natural systems of the planet, including the oceans. However, in the marine environment, it is well-known that species and ecosystems can also be influenced by natural sources of large-scale hydro-climatological variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was negatively correlated with the mean abundance of one of the subarctic key species Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea. This correlation was thought to have broken down in 1996, however, the timing has never been tested statistically. The present study revisits this unanticipated change and reveals that the correlation did not break down in 1996 as originally proposed but earlier, at the time of an abrupt ecosystem shift in the North Sea in the 1980s. Furthermore, the analyses demonstrate that the correlation between the NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance is modulated by the thermal regime of the North Sea, which in turn covaries positively with global temperature anomalies. This study thereby provides evidence that global climate change is likely to alter some empirical relationships found in the past between species abundance or the ecosystem state and large-scale natural sources of hydro-climatological variability. A theory is proposed to explain how this might happen. These unanticipated changes, also called ‘surprises’ in climatic research, are a direct consequence of the complexity of both climatic and biological systems. In this period of rapid climate change, it is therefore hazardous to integrate meteo-oceanic indices such as the NAO in models used in the management of living resources, as it has been sometimes attempted in the past.