Review of climate change impacts on marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland

1.Commercial fishing is an important socio-economic activity in coastal regions of the UK and Ireland. Ocean–atmospheric changes caused by greenhouse gas emissions are likely to affect future fish and shellfish production, and lead to increasing challenges in ensuring long-term sustainable fisheries management. 2.The paper reviews existing knowledge and understanding of the exposure of marine ecosystems to ocean-atmospheric changes, the consequences of these changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, and the adaptability of the UK and Irish fisheries sector. 3.Ocean warming is resulting in shifts in the distribution of exploited species and is affecting the productivity of fish stocks and underlying marine ecosystems. In addition, some studies suggest that ocean acidification may have large potential impacts on fisheries resources, in particular shell-forming invertebrates. 4.These changes may lead to loss of productivity, but also the opening of new fishing opportunities, depending on the interactions between climate impacts, fishing grounds and fleet types. They will also affect fishing regulations, the price of fish products and operating costs, which in turn will affect the economic performance of the UK and Irish fleets. 5.Key knowledge gaps exist in our understanding of the implications of climate and ocean chemistry changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, particularly on the social and economic responses of the fishing sectors to climate change. However, these gaps should not delay climate change mitigation and adaptation policy actions, particularly those measures that clearly have other ‘co-benefits’.

The co-location of offshore windfarms and decapod fisheries in the UK: Constraints and opportunities

The offshore wind sector in the UK is expanding rapidly and is set to occupy significant areas of the coastal zone, making it necessary to explore the potential for co-location with other economic activities. The presence of turbine foundations introduces hard substrates into areas previously dominated by soft sediments, implying that artificial reef effects may occur, with potential benefits for fisheries. This review focuses on the possibilities for locating fisheries for two commercially important decapods, the brown crab Cancer pagurus and the European lobster Homarus gammarus, within offshore wind farms. Existing understanding of habitat use by C pagurus and H. gammarus suggests that turbine foundations have the potential to act as artificial reefs, although the responses of these species to noise and electromagnetic fields are poorly understood. Offshore wind farm monitoring programmes provide very limited information, but do suggest that adult C pagurus associate with turbine foundations, which may also serve as nursery areas. There was insufficient deployment and monitoring of rock armouring to draw conclusions about the association of H. gammarus with offshore wind farm foundations. The limited information currently available demonstrates the need for further research into the ecological and socioeconomic issues surrounding fishery co-location potential.

Priority research questions for the UK food system

The rise of food security up international political, societal and academic agendas has led to increasing interest in novel means of improving primary food production and reducing waste. There are however, also many 'post-farm gate' activities that are critical to food security, including processing, packaging, distributing, retailing, cooking and consuming. These activities all affect a range of important food security elements, notably availability, affordability and other aspects of access, nutrition and safety. Addressing the challenge of universal food security, in the context of a number of other policy goals (e.g. social, economic and environmental sustainability), is of keen interest to a range of UK stakeholders but requires an up-to-date evidence base and continuous innovation. An exercise was therefore conducted, under the auspices of the UK Global Food Security Programme, to identify priority research questions with a focus on the UK food system (though the outcomes may be broadly applicable to other developed nations). Emphasis was placed on incorporating a wide range of perspectives ('world views') from different stakeholder groups: policy, private sector, non-governmental organisations, advocacy groups and academia. A total of 456 individuals submitted 820 questions from which 100 were selected by a process of online voting and a three-stage workshop voting exercise. These 100 final questions were sorted into 10 themes and the 'top' question for each theme identified by a further voting exercise. This step also allowed four different stakeholder groups to select the top 7-8 questions from their perspectives. Results of these voting exercises are presented. It is clear from the wide range of questions prioritised in this exercise that the different stakeholder groups identified specific research needs on a range of post-farm gate activities and food security outcomes. Evidence needs related to food affordability, nutrition and food safety (all key elements of food security) featured highly in the exercise. While there were some questions relating to climate impacts on production, other important topics for food security (e.g. trade, transport, preference and cultural needs) were not viewed as strongly by the participants.

Above-water reflectance for the evaluation of adjacency effects in Earth observation data: initial results and methods comparison for near-coastal waters in the Western Channel, UK

Un-supervised hyperspectral remote-sensing reflectance data (<15 km from the shore) were collected from a moving research vessel. Two different processing methods were compared. The results were similar to concurrent Aqua-MODIS and Suomi-NPP-VIIRS satellite data.

Structure and diversity of intertidal benthic diatom assemblages in contrasting shores: a case study from the Tagus estuary1

The structure of intertidal benthic diatoms assemblages in the Tagus estuary was investigated during a 2-year survey, carried out in six stations with different sediment texture. Nonparametric multivariate analyses were used to characterize spatial and temporal patterns of the assemblages and to link them to the measured environmental variables. In addition, diversity and other features related to community physiognomy, such as size-class or life-form distributions, were used to describe the diatom assemblages. A total of 183 diatom taxa were identified during cell counts and their biovolume was determined. Differences between stations (analysis of similarity (ANOSIM), R=0.932) were more evident than temporal patterns (R=0.308) and mud content alone was the environmental variable most correlated to the biotic data (BEST, rho=0.863). Mudflat stations were typically colonized by low diversity diatom assemblages (H' similar to 1.9), mainly composed of medium-sized motile epipelic species (250-1,000 mu m(3)), that showed species-specific seasonal blooms (e.g., Navicula gregaria Donkin). Sandy stations had more complex and diverse diatom assemblages (H' similar to 3.2). They were mostly composed by a large set of minute epipsammic species (<250 mu m(3)) that, generally, did not show temporal patterns. The structure of intertidal diatom assemblages was largely defined by the interplay between epipelon and epipsammon, and its diversity was explained within the framework of the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis. However, the spatial distribution of epipelic and epipsammic life-forms showed that the definition of both functional groups should not be over-simplified.

US NOAA Fisheries and UK SAHFOS CPR surveys: comparison of methods and data

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey has sampled four routes: Boston–Nova Scotia (1961–present), New York toward Bermuda (1976–present), Narragansett Bay–Mount Hope Bay–Rhode Island Sound (1998–present) and eastward of Chesapeake Bay (1974–1980). NOAA involvement began in 1974 when it assumed responsibility for the existing Boston–Nova Scotia route from what is now the UK's Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS). Training, equipment and computer software were provided by SAHFOS to ensure continuity for this and standard protocols for any new routes. Data for the first 14 years of this route were provided to NOAA by SAHFOS. Comparison of collection methods; sample processing; and sample identification, staging and counting techniques revealed near-consistency between NOAA and SAHFOS. One departure involved phytoplankton counting standards. This has since been addressed and the data corrected. Within- and between-survey taxonomic and life-stage names and their consistency through time were, and continue to be, an issue. For this, a cross-reference table has been generated that contains the SAHFOS taxonomic code, NOAA taxonomic code, NOAA life-stage code, National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) taxonomic code, Integrated Taxonomic Information System (ITIS) serial number and authority and consistent use/route. This table is available for review/use by other CPR surveys. Details of the NOAA and SAHFOS comparison and analytical techniques unique to NOAA are presented.

Empirically modelling the potential effects of changes in temperature and prey availability on the growth of cod larvae in UK shelf seas

It has been hypothesized that changes in zooplankton community structure over the past four decades led to reduced growth and survival of prerecruit Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and that this was a key factor underlying poor year classes, contributing to stock collapse, and inhibiting the recovery of stocks around the UK. To evaluate whether observed changes in plankton abundance, species composition and temperature could have led to periods of poorer growth of cod larvae, we explored the effect of prey availability and temperature on early larval growth using an empirical trophodynamic model. Prey availability was parameterized using species abundance data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Our model suggests that the observed changes in plankton community structure in the North Sea may have had less impact on cod larval growth, at least for the first 40 days following hatching, than previously suggested. At least in the short term, environmental and prey conditions should be able to sustain growth of cod larvae and environmental changes acting on this early life stage should not limit stock recovery.

Have climate induced changes in zooplankton communities led to poor conditions for larval fish growth? A test on cod larvae on the UK shelf

Climate effects have been shown to be at least partly responsible for the reorganisation in the plankton ecosystem on the shelf seas of NW Europe over the last 50 years. Most fish larvae feed primarily on zooplankton, so changes in zooplankton quantity, quality and seasonal timing have been hypothesized to be a key factor affecting their survival. To investigate this we have implemented a 1-dimensional trophodynamic growth model of cod larvae for the waters around the UK covering the period 1960 to 2003. Larval growth is modelled as the difference between the amount of food absorbed by the larva and its various metabolic costs. Prey availability is based upon the biomass and size of available preys (i.e. adults and nauplii copepods and cladocerans) taken from the Continuous Plankton Recorder dataset. Temperature and wind forcing are also taken into account. Results suggest that observed changes in plankton community structure may have had less impact than previously suggested. This is because changes in prey availability may be compensated for by increased temperatures resulting in little overall impact on potential larval growth. Stock recovery, at least in the short term is likely to be more dependent upon conserving the year classes recruited to allow spawning stock biomass to rebuild. If as our model suggests, the larvae are still able to survive in the changing environment, reduction in fishing on the adults is needed to allow the stock to recover.

Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts?

A regime shift is a large, sudden, and long-lasting change in the dynamics of an ecosystem, affecting multiple trophic levels. There are a growing number of papers that report regime shifts in marine ecosystems. However, the evidence for regime shifts is equivocal, because the methods used to detect them are not yet well developed. We have collated over 300 biological time series from seven marine regions around the UK, covering the ecosystem from phytoplankton to marine mammals. Each time series consists of annual measures of abundance for a single group of organisms over several decades. We summarised the data for each region using the first principal component, weighting either each time series or each biological component (e.g. plankton, fish, benthos) equally. We then searched for regime shifts using Rodionov’s regime shift detection (RSD) method, which found regime shifts in the first principal component for all seven marine regions. However, there are consistent temporal trends in the data for six of the seven regions. Such trends violate the assumptions of RSD. Thus, the regime shifts detected by RSD in six of the seven regions are likely to be artefacts caused by temporal trends. We are therefore developing more appropriate time series models for both single populations and whole communities that will explicitly model temporal trends and should increase our ability to detect true regime shift events.

Scenarios for integrated river catchment and coastal zone management

The European Water Framework Directive requires EU Member States to introduce water quality objectives for all water bodies, including coastal waters. Measures will have to be introduced if these objectives are not met, given predictions based on current trends. In this context, the estimation of future fluxes of nutrients and contaminants in the catchment, and the evaluation of policies to improve water quality in coastal zones are an essential part of river basin management plans. This paper investigates the use of scenarios for integrated catchment/coastal zone management in the Humber Estuary in the U.K. The context of this ongoing research is a European research project which aims to assist the implementation of integrated catchment and coastal zone management by analysing the response of the coastal sea to changes in fluxes of nutrients and contaminants from the catchments. The example of the Humber illustrates how scenarios focusing on water quality improvement can provide a useful tool to investigate future fluxes and evaluate policy options for a more integrated coastal/catchment management strategy.

Marine Biodiversity Data Flow in the UK

The report provides a review of the current level of exchange in marine life data and its management in the UK taking into account the current structures that are in place between data providers, custodians and managers. In addition, the report makes recommendations on how data flow can be improved over the next few years to achieve greater exchange and interoperability within the marine sector.