Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Seasonal dynamics of the carbonate system in the Western English Channel

We present over 900 carbonate system observations collected over four years (2007–2010) in the Western English Channel (WEC). We determined CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), Total Alkalinity (TA) and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) along a series of 40 km transects, including two oceanographic stations (L4 and E1) within a sustained coastal observatory. Our data follow a seasonal pattern of CO2 undersaturation from January to August, followed by supersaturation in September–October and a return to near-equilibrium thereafter. This pattern is explained by the interplay of thermal and biological sinks in winter and spring–summer, respectively, followed by the breakdown of stratification and mixing with deeper, high-CO2 water in autumn. The drawdown of DIC and inorganic N between March and June with a C:N ratio of 8.7–9.5 was consistent with carbon over-consumption during phytoplankton growth. Monthly mean surface pCO2 was strongly correlated with depth integrated chlorophyll a highlighting the importance of subsurface chlorophyll a maxima in controlling C-fluxes in shelf seas. Mixing of seawater with riverine freshwater in near-shore samples caused a reduction in TA and the saturation state of calcite minerals, particularly in winter. Our data show that the L4 and E1 oceanographic stations were small, net sinks for atmospheric CO2 over an annual cycle (−0.52±0.66 mol C m−2 y−1 and −0.62±0.49 mol C m−2 y−1, respectively).