Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Age and gender influences on sensory perceptions of novel low cost nutrient-rich food products developed using traditional Ghanaian food ingredients

Background: A number of factors are known to influence food preferences and acceptability of new products. These include their sensory characteristics and strong, innate neural influences. In designing foods for any target group, it is important to consider intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics which may contribute to palatability, and acceptability of foods. Objective: To assess age and gender influences on sensory perceptions of novel low cost nutrient-rich food products developed using traditional Ghanaian food ingredients. Materials and Methods: In this study, a range of food products were developed from Ghanaian traditional food sources using the Food Multimix (FMM) concept. These products were subjected to sensory evaluation to assess the role of sensory perception on their acceptability among different target age groups across the life cycle (aged 11-68 years olds) and to ascertain any possible influences of gender on preference and choice. Variables including taste, odour, texture, flavour and appearance were tested and the results captured on a Likert scale and scores of likeness and acceptability analysed. Multivariate analyses were used to develop prediction models for targeted recipe development for different target groups. Multiple factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) and logistic linear regression were employed to test the strength of acceptability and to ascertain age and gender influences on product preference. Results: The results showed a positive trend in acceptability (r = 0.602) which tended towards statistical significance (p = 0.065) with very high product favourability rating (91% acceptability; P=0.005). However, age [odds ratios=1.44 (11-15 years old) odds ratios=2.01 (18-68 years old) and gender (P=0.000)] were major influences on product preference with children and females (irrespective of age) showing clear preferences or dislike of products containing certain particular ingredients. Conclusion: These findings are potentially useful in planning recipes for feeding interventions involving different vulnerable and target groups.

The reporting behaviours of student nurses who have experienced verbal abuse

Background: There is evidence that student nurses are vulnerable to experiencing verbal abuse from a variety of sources and under-reporting of verbal abuse is prevalent throughout the nursing profession. The objective of the study is to explore the reporting behaviours of student nurses who have experienced verbal abuse. Method: For this study a definition of verbal abuse was adopted from current Department of Health (England) guidelines. Questionnaires were distributed in 2005 to a convenience sample of 156 third year nursing students from one pre-registration nursing programme in England. A total of 114 questionnaires were returned, giving an overall response rate of 73.0%. Results: Fifty one students (44.7% of responses) reported verbal abuse; all of these completed the section exploring reporting behaviours. The incidents involved patients in thirty three cases (64.7%); eight cases (15.7%) involved visitors or relatives and ten cases (19.6%) involved other healthcare workers. Thirty two students (62.7%) stated that they did report the incident of verbal abuse they experienced and nineteen (37.3%) of respondents reported that they did not. Only four incidents developed from an oral report to being formally documented. There was a statistically significant association (P = 0.003) between the focus of verbal abuse (patient/visitor or colleague) and the respondents reporting practices with respondents experiencing verbal abuse from colleagues less likely to report incidents. Most frequent feelings following experiences of verbal abuse from colleagues were feelings of embarrassment and hurt/shock. Most frequent consequences of experiencing verbal abuse from patients or relatives were feeling embarrassed and feeling sorry for the abuser. When comparing non reporters with reporters, the most frequent feelings of non reporters were embarrassment and hurt and reporters, embarrassment and feeling sorry for the abuser. When considering levels of support after the incident the mean rating score of respondents who reported the incident was 5.40 (standard deviation 2.89) and of those that did not, 4.36 (standard deviation 2.87) which was not statistically significant (p = 0.220). Conclusions: 1. Not documenting experiences of verbal abuse formally in writing is a prevalent phenomenon within the sample studied and reporting practices are inconsistent. 2. Both Higher Education Institutions and health care providers should consider emphasising formal reporting and documenting of incidents of verbal abuse during student nurse training and access to formal supportive services should be promoted. 3. Effective incident reporting processes and analysis of these reports can lead to an increased awareness of how to avoid negative interactions in the workplace and how to deal with incidents effectively.