Bivariate distribution modeling with tree diameter and height data

The Logit-Logistic (LL), Johnson's SB, and the Beta (GBD) are flexible four-parameter probability distribution models in terms of the (skewness-kurtosis) region covered, and each has been used for modeling tree diameter distributions in forest stands. This article compares bivariate forms of these models in terms of their adequacy in representing empirical diameter-height distributions from 102 sample plots. Four bivariate models are compared: SBB, the natural, well-known, and much-used bivariate generalization of SB; the bivariate distributions with LL, SB, and Beta as marginals, constructed using Plackett's method (LL-2P, etc.). All models are fitted using maximum likelihood, and their goodness-of-fits are compared using minus log-likelihood (equivalent to Akaike's Information Criterion, the AIC). The performance ranking in this case study was SBB, LL-2P, GBD-2P, and SB-2P

Multiscale modelling of dendrite growth during vacuum arc remelting

Vacuum Arc Remelting (VAR) is the accepted method for producing homogeneous, fine microstructures that are free of inclusions required for rotating grade applications. However, as ingot sizes are increasing INCONEL 718 becomes increasingly susceptible to defects such as freckles, tree rings, and white spots increases for large diameter billets. Therefore, predictive models of these defects are required to allow optimization of process parameters. In this paper, a multiscale and multi-physics model is presented to predict the development of microstructures in the VAR ingot during solidification. At the microscale, a combined stochastic nucleation approach and finite difference solution of the solute diffusion is applied in the semi-solid zone of the VAR ingot. The micromodel is coupled with a solution of the macroscale heat transfer, fluid flow and electromagnetism in the VAR process through the temperature, pressure and fluid flow fields. The main objective of this study is to achieve a better understanding of the formation of the defects in VAR by quantifying the influence of VAR processing parameters on grain nucleation and dendrite growth. In particular, the effect of different ingot growth velocities on the microstructure formation was investigated. It was found that reducing the velocity produces significantly more coarse grains.