Hydrocarbon field size distributions: a case study in mixed integer nonlinear programming

Of key importance to oil and gas companies is the size distribution of fields in the areas that they are drilling. Recent arguments suggest that there are many more fields yet to be discovered in mature provinces than had previously been thought because the underlying distribution is monotonic not peaked. According to this view the peaked nature of the distribution for discovered fields reflects not the underlying distribution but the effect of economic truncation. This paper contributes to the discussion by analysing up-to-date exploration and discovery data for two mature provinces using the discovery-process model, based on sampling without replacement and implicitly including economic truncation effects. The maximum likelihood estimation involved generates a high-dimensional mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. A highly efficient solution strategy is tested, exploiting the separable structure and handling the integer constraints by treating the problem as a masked allocation problem in dynamic programming.

A reified temporal logic

This paper presents a reified temporal logic for representing and reasoning about temporal and non-temporal relationships between non-temporal assertions. A clear syntax and semantics for the logic is formally provided. Three types of predicates, temporal predicates, non-temporal predicates and meta-predicates, are introduced. Terms of the proposed language are partitioned into three types, temporal terms, non-temporal terms and propositional terms. Reified propositions consist of formulae with each predicate being either a temporal predicate or a meta-predicate. Meta-predicates may take both temporal terms and propositional terms together as arguments or take propositional terms alone. A standard formula of the classical first-order language with each predicate being a non-temporal predicate taking only non-temporal terms as arguments is reified as just a propositional term. A general time ontology has been provided which can be specialized to a variety of existing temporal systems. The new logic allows one to predicate and quantify over propositional terms while according a special status of time; for example, assertions such as ‘effects cannot precede their causes’ is ensured in the logic, and some problematic temporal aspects including the delay time between events and their effects can be conveniently expressed. Applications of the logic are presented including the characterization of the negation of properties and their contextual sentences, and the expression of temporal relations between actions and effects.

Earliness penalties on a single machine subject to precedence constraints: SLK due date assignment

The paper considers the single machine due date assignment and scheduling problems with n jobs in which the due dates are to be obtained from the processing times by adding a positive slack q. A schedule is feasible if there are no tardy jobs and the job sequence respects given precedence constraints. The value of q is chosen so as to minimize a function ϕ(F,q) which is non-decreasing in each of its arguments, where F is a certain non-decreasing earliness penalty function. Once q is chosen or fixed, the corresponding scheduling problem is to find a feasible schedule with the minimum value of function F. In the case of arbitrary precedence constraints the problems under consideration are shown to be NP-hard in the strong sense even for F being total earliness. If the precedence constraints are defined by a series-parallel graph, both scheduling and due date assignment problems are proved solvable in time, provided that F is either the sum of linear functions or the sum of exponential functions. The running time of the algorithms can be reduced to if the jobs are independent. Scope and purpose We consider the single machine due date assignment and scheduling problems and design fast algorithms for their solution under a wide range of assumptions. The problems under consideration arise in production planning when the management is faced with a problem of setting the realistic due dates for a number of orders. The due dates of the orders are determined by increasing the time needed for their fulfillment by a common positive slack. If the slack is set to be large enough, the due dates can be easily maintained, thereby producing a good image of the firm. This, however, may result in the substantial holding cost of the finished products before they are brought to the customer. The objective is to explore the trade-off between the size of the slack and the arising holding costs for the early orders.

Reified temporal logics: an overview

There are three main approaches to the representation of temporal information in AI literature: the so-called method of temporal arguments that simply extends functions and predicates of first-order language to include time as the additional argument; modal temporal logics which are extensions ofthe propositional or predicate calculus with modal temporal operators; and reified temporal logics which reify standard propositions of some initial language (e.g., the classical first-order or modal logic) as objects denoting propositional terms. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview onthe temporal reified approach by looking closely atsome representative existing systems featuring reified propositions, including those of Allen, McDermott, Shoham, Reichgelt, Galton, and Ma and Knight. We shall demonstrate that, although reified logics might be more complicated in expressing assertions about some given objects with respect to different times, they accord a special status to time and therefore have several distinct advantages in talking about some important issues which would be difficult (if not impossible) to express in other approaches.

Evaluating the effectiveness of Z: The claims made about CICS and where we go from here

There have been few genuine success stories about industrial use of formal methods. Perhaps the best known and most celebrated is the use of Z by IBM (in collaboration with Oxford University's Programming Research Group) during the development of CICS/ESA (version 3.1). This work was rewarded with the prestigious Queen's Award for Technological Achievement in 1992 and is especially notable for two reasons: 1) because it is a commercial, rather than safety- or security-critical, system and 2) because the claims made about the effectiveness of Z are quantitative as well as qualitative. The most widely publicized claims are: less than half the normal number of customer-reported errors and a 9% savings in the total development costs of the release. This paper provides an independent assessment of the effectiveness of using Z on CICS based on the set of public domain documents. Using this evidence, we believe that the case study was important and valuable, but that the quantitative claims have not been substantiated. The intellectual arguments and rationale for formal methods are attractive, but their widespread commercial use is ultimately dependent upon more convincing quantitative demonstrations of effectiveness. Despite the pioneering efforts of IBM and PRG, there is still a need for rigorous, measurement-based case studies to assess when and how the methods are most effective. We describe how future similar case studies could be improved so that the results are more rigorous and conclusive.

Policy packages as potential routes to urban road pricing in the UK

This paper focuses on urban road pricing as a demand management policy that is often regarded as radical and generally unacceptable. Road pricing often gets delayed or abandoned due to low acceptability. This may be due to the fact that complex interactions and drivers of change affect road transport management and require cooperation within implementation networks. The implementation network is a group of people (referred to as partners and actors) who co-ordinate the introduction of policy tools. The drivers of change include any internal or external influences that have an effect on the time, place, or ‘shape’ of the policy measures being introduced. Demand management measures that focus on 'sustainable transport' usually address a limited set of objectives and are often implemented alone i.e. are not necessarily combined with other policy measures. When combined with other measures, it is not always clear whether the multiple interactions between policy tools and implementation networks have been sufficiently considered. Examples of ongoing implementation of policy package in the UK are the support of road pricing initiatives combined with public transport improvements by the Transport Innovation Fund. The objectives of the paper are twofold. First, we present a review of the UK urban road pricing situation. Second, we contrast the emerging issues against six key implementation factors. The analysis of three existing UK road pricing examples - London, Edinburgh and Durham – shows the importance of combining policy tools. Furthermore, through the above examples and theoretical arguments, we emphasise the additional need of creating and maintaining strong networks when implementing policy packages.

A review of the rationales for corporate risk management: fashion or the need?

This paper presents the extensive literature survey based both on theoretical rationales for hedging as well as the empirical evidence that support the implications of the theory regarding the arguments for the corporate risk management relevance and its influence on the company’s value. The survey of literature presented in this paper has revealed that there are two chief classes of rationales for corporate decision to hedge - maximisation of shareholder value or maximisation of managers’ private utility. The paper concludes that, the total benefit of hedging is the combination of all these motives and, if the costs of using corporate risk management instruments are less than the benefits provided via the avenues mentioned in this paper, or any other benefit perceived by the market, then risk management is a shareholder-value enhancing activity.