[Book review] Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour

Tony Mann provides a review of the book: Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, Princeton University Press, 1944.

Mathematical modelling of the behaviour of granular material in a computational fluid dynamics framework using micro-mechanical models

In this paper, a Computational Fluid Dynamics framework is presented for the modelling of key processes which involve granular material (i.e. segregation, degradation, caking). Appropriate physical models and sophisticated algorithms have been developed for the correct representation of the different material components in a granular mixture. The various processes, which arise from the micromechanical properties of the different mixture species can be obtained and parametrised in a DEM / experimental framework, thus enabling the continuum theory to correctly account for the micromechanical properties of a granular system. The present study establishes the link between the micromechanics and continuum theory and demonstrates the model capabilities in simulations of processes which are of great importance to the process engineering industry and involve granular materials in complex geometries.

Grandparents and parenting: towards a theory of grandparenthood

This paper explores the changing role of contemporary grandparents with many demonstrating a willingness and ability to take on parental responsibilities for their grandchildren, where they may face challenges and opportunities in difficult times. Three main forms of grand parenting are identified in the literature, those who have primary responsibility and are raising their grand children as their main carers perhaps in response to crisis situations, those who live in extended families and participate in care, and those who provide day care while the child’s parents work. The latter has increased because of the increasing frequency of divorce, single parenting and the lack of available or subsidised child care in the United Kingdom. When grandparents step into a troubled situation and attempt to offer stability and security for their grandchildren they may have to manage the combined responsibilities of family caregivers and parental figures. Grandparenthood is a tenuous role, lacking clear agreement on behaviour norms. In the culture of advice and parenting support, while care must be taken not to undermine parenting skills or make judgements about the ability to cope with the demands of childcare, an exploration of the impact on grandparents and children must be undertaken. Due to the complex web of interrelated factors the process and outcomes of care giving by grandparents is not well known in the literature. It is proposed therefore that it is timely for research to be undertaken to explore and develop a theory of Grandparenthood.

Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

Kappa calculus and evidential strength: A note on Åqvist's logical theory of legal evidence

Lennart Åqvist (1992) proposed a logical theory of legal evidence, based on the Bolding-Ekelöf of degrees of evidential strength. This paper reformulates Åqvist's model in terms of the probabilistic version of the kappa calculus. Proving its acceptability in the legal context is beyond the present scope, but the epistemological debate about Bayesian Law isclearly relevant. While the present model is a possible link to that lineof inquiry, we offer some considerations about the broader picture of thepotential of AI & Law in the evidentiary context. Whereas probabilisticreasoning is well-researched in AI, calculations about the threshold ofpersuasion in litigation, whatever their value, are just the tip of theiceberg. The bulk of the modeling desiderata is arguably elsewhere, if one isto ideally make the most of AI's distinctive contribution as envisaged forlegal evidence research.

An analysis of human behaviour during aircraft evacuation situations using the AASK v3.0 database

The Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It is also key to the development of aircraft evacuation models such as airEXODUS, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. This paper describes recent developments with the database leading to the development of AASK v3.0. These include significantly increasing the number of passenger accounts in the database, the introduction of cabin crew accounts, the introduction of fatality information, improved functionality through the seat plan viewer utility and improved ease of access to the database via the internet. In addition, the paper demonstrates the use of the database by investigating a number of important issues associated with aircraft evacuation. These include issues associated with social bonding and evacuation, the relationship between the number of crew and evacuation efficiency, frequency of exit/slide failures in accidents and exploring possible relationships between seating location and chances of survival. Finally, the passenger behavioural trends described in analysis undertaken with the earlier database are confirmed with the wider data set.

An analysis of human behaviour during the WTC disaster of 9/11 based on published survivor accounts

This paper presents an analysis of survivor experiences from the World Trade Centre (WTC) evacuation of 11 September 2001. The experiences were collected from published accounts appearing in the print and electronic mass media and are stored in a relational database specifically developed for this purpose.

What is the value of technology? Toward a labour theory of technology change

Economic analysis of technology treats it as given exogenously, while determined endogenously. This paper examines the conceptual conflict. The paper outlines an alternative conceptual framework. This uses a 'General Vertical Division of Labour' into conceptual and executive parts to facilitate a coherent political economic explanation of technological change. The paper suggests that we may acquire rather than impose an understanding of technological change. It also suggests that we may re-define and reassess the efficiency of technological change, through the values inculcated into it.