Temporal modelling of short-term rainfall using Cox processes

We study two marked point process models based on the Cox process. These models are used to describe the probabilistic structure of the rainfall intensity process. Mathematical formulation of the models is described and some second-moment characteristics of the rainfall depth, and aggregated processes are considered. The derived second-order properties of the accumulated rainfall amounts at different levels of aggregation are used in order to examine the model fit. A brief data analysis is presented. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Heuristics for short route job shop scheduling problems

We consider two “minimum”NP-hard job shop scheduling problems to minimize the makespan. In one of the problems every job has to be processed on at most two out of three available machines. In the other problem there are two machines, and a job may visit one of the machines twice. For each problem, we define a class of heuristic schedules in which certain subsets of operations are kept as blocks on the corresponding machines. We show that for each problem the value of the makespan of the best schedule in that class cannot be less than 3/2 times the optimal value, and present algorithms that guarantee a worst-case ratio of 3/2.

Computational fire engineering - do we have what we need?

This presentation will attempt to address the issue of whether the engineering design community has the knowledge, data and tool sets required to undertake advanced evacuation analysis. In discussing this issue I want to draw on examples not only from the building industry but more widely from where ever people come into contact with an environment fashioned by man. Prescriptive design regulations the world over suggest that if we follow a particular set of essentially configurational regulations concerning travel distances, number of exits, exit widths, etc it should be possible to evacuate a structure within a pre-defined acceptable amount of time. In the U.K. for public buildings this turns out to be 2.5 minutes, internationally in the aviation industry this is 90 seconds, in the UK rail industry this is 90 seconds and the international standard adopted by the maritime industry is 60 minutes. The difficulties and short comings of this approach are well known and so I will not repeat them here, save to say that this approach is usually littered with “magic numbers” that do not stand up to scrutiny. As we are focusing on human behaviour issues, it is also worth noting that more generally, the approach fails to take into account how people actually behave, preferring to adopt an engineer’s view of what people should do in order to make their design work. Examples of the failure of this approach are legion and include the; Manchester Boeing 737 fire, Kings Cross underground station fire, Piper Alpha oil platform explosion, Ladbroke Grove Rail crash and fire, Mont Blanc tunnel fire, Scandinavian Star ferry fire and the Station Nightclub fire.

Using EMGs and kinematics data to study the take-off technique of experts and novices for a pole vaulting short run-up educational exercise

This study attempts to characterise the electromyographic activity and kinematics exhibited during the performance of take-off for a pole vaulting short run-up educational exercise, for different expertise levels. Two groups (experts and novices) participated in this study. Both groups were asked to execute their take-off technique for that specific exercise. Among the kinematics variables studied, the knee, hip and ankle angles and the hip and knee angular velocities were significantly different. There were also significant differences in the EMG variables, especially in terms of (i) biceps femoris and gastrocnemius lateralis activity at touchdown and (ii) vastus lateralis and gastrocnemius lateralis activity during take-off. During touchdown, the experts tended to increase the stiffness of the take-off leg to decrease braking. Novices exhibited less stiffness in the take-off leg due to their tendency to maintain a tighter knee angle. Novices also transferred less energy forward during take-off due to lack of contraction in the vastus lateralis, which is known to contribute to forward energy transfers. This study highlights the differences in both groups in terms of muscular and angular control according to the studied variables. Such studies of pole vaulting could be useful to help novices to learn expert's technique.

Fostering 'habits of reflection, independent study and free inquiry': an analysis of the short-lived phenomenon of General/Liberal Studies in English vocational education and training

In 1957, 12 years after the end of World War II, the Ministry of Education issued Circular 323 to promote the development of an element of ‘liberal studies’ in courses offered by technical and further education (FE) colleges in England. This was perceived to be in some ways a peculiar or uncharacteristic development. However, it lasted over 20 years, during which time most students on courses in FE colleges participated in what were termed General or Liberal Studies classes that complemented and/or contrasted with the technical content of their vocational programmes. By the end of the 1970s, these classes had changed in character, moving away from the concept of a ‘liberal education’ towards a prescribed diet of ‘communication studies’. The steady decline in apprenticeship numbers from the late 1960s onwards accelerated in the late 1970s, resulting in a new type of student (the state-funded ‘trainee’) into colleges whose curriculum would be prescribed by the Manpower Services Commission. This paper examines the Ministry’s thinking and charts the rise and fall of a curriculum phenomenon that became immortalised in the ‘Wilt’ novels of Tom Sharpe. The paper argues that the Ministry of Education’s concerns half a century ago are still relevant now, particularly as fresh calls are being made to raise the leaving age from compulsory education to 18, and in light of attempts in England to develop new vocational diplomas for full-time students in schools and colleges.