An analysis of human behaviour during the WTC disaster of 9/11 based on published survivor accounts

This paper presents an analysis of survivor experiences from the World Trade Centre (WTC) evacuation of 11 September 2001. The experiences were collected from published accounts appearing in the print and electronic mass media and are stored in a relational database specifically developed for this purpose.

Extended model of pedestrian escalator behaviour based on data collected within a Chinese underground station

This paper presents data relating to pedestrian escalator behaviour collected in an underground station in Shanghai, China. While data was not collected under emergency or simulated emergency conditions, it is argued that the data collected under rush-hour conditions - where commuters are under time pressures to get to work on time - may be used to approximate emergency evacuation conditions - where commuters are also under time pressures to exit the building as quickly as possible. Data pertaining to escalator/stair choice, proportion of walkers to riders, walker speeds and side usage are presented. The collected data is used to refine the buildingEXODUS escalator model allowing the agents to select whether to use an escalator or neighbouring parallel stair based on congestion conditiions at the base of the stair/escalator and expected travel times. The new model, together with the collected data, is used to simulate a series of hypothetical evacuation scenarios to demonstrate the impact of escalators on evacuation performance.

Influence of solder paste components on rheological behaviour

Rheological properties of solder pastes are very important for a high quality surface mount technology process. The stencil/screen printing process of solder pastes is one of the most critical steps in the SMT assembly process, as most of the assembly defects can often be shown to originate from paste rheology and associated poor printing performance. This paper concerns an investigation of the effect of solder paste composition on the rheological properties and behaviour of four different solder pastes. We report on the evaluation of three different paste formulations based on the no-clean flux composition, with different alloy composition, metal content and particle size using a range of rheological characterisation techniques - including viscosity measurements, yield stress, oscillatory and creep-recovery tests. Our results show that in the viscosity test, all solder pastes exhibited a shear thinning behaviour in nature with different highest maximum viscosity. In the region of shear thinning behaviour the paste 3 delivered the best results. Viscosity test helps to understand the solid and cohesive behaviour of solder pastes. Good solid and cohesive behaviour indicates a good paste roll and helps to avoid paste bleeding. The yield stress test has been used to study the effect of temperature on the flow behaviour of solder pastes. Yield stress was measured for a range of temperature from 15deg C to 35deg C with an increment of 5degC. The result indicated a decreasing of the yield stress point if the temperature was increased. Paste 4 has shown the minimum dependence on temperature. The oscillatory test has been used to find out the linear visco-elastic range and to study the solid and liquid like behaviours of solder pastes. Paste 1 indicated the biggest linear visco-elastic region (LVR) and the highest value of G' and G" which means solder paste 1 will be needed a higher squeegee pressure in the printing process. In the creep recovery test paste 4 showed the best- - recovery and the lowest values of creep and recovery compliance which indicated a good printing behaviour. The test also has showed the solder paste with smaller particle size exhibit less recovery

Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

Modelling the nano-scale phenomena in condensed matter physics via computer-based numerical simulations

A review of the atomistic modelling of the behaviour of nano-scale structures and processes via molecular dynamics (MD) simulation method of a canonical ensemble is presented. Three areas of application in condensed matter physics are considered. We focus on the adhesive and indentation properties of the solid surfaces in nano-contacts, the nucleation and growth of nano-phase metallic and semi-conducting atomic and molecular films on supporting substrates, and the nano- and multi-scale crack propagation properties of metallic lattices. A set of simulations selected from these fields are discussed, together with a brief introduction to the methodology of the MD simulation. The pertinent inter-atomic potentials that model the energetics of the metallic and semi-conducting systems are also given.

Collector-metal behaviour in the recovery of platinum-group metals from catalytic converters

A commercial pyrometallurgical process for the extraction of platinum-group metals (PGM) from a feedstock slag was analysed with the use of a model based on computational fluid dynamics. The results of the modelling indicate that recovery depends on the behaviour of the collector phase. A possible method is proposed for estimation of the rate at which PGM particles in slag are absorbed into an iron collector droplet that falls through it. Nanoscale modelling techniques (for particle migration or capture) are combined with a diffusion-controlled mass-transfer model to determine the iron collector droplet size needed for >95% PGM recovery in a typical process bath (70 mm deep) in a realistic time-scale (<1 h). The results show that an iron droplet having a diameter in the range 0.1–0.3 mm gives good recovery (>90%) within a reasonable time. This finding is compatible with published experimental data. Pyrometallurgical processes similar to that investigated should be applicable to other types of waste that contain low levels of potentially valuable metals.

The development of an advanced ship evacuation simulation software product and associated large scale testing facility for the collection of human shipboard behaviour data

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation point of view? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Herald of Free Enterprise and the Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerned with the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models offer the promise to quickly and efficiently bring evacuation considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board". maritimeEXODUS-winner of the BCS, CITIS and RINA awards - is such a model. Features such as the ability to realistically simulate human response to fire, the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations, a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios and with an integrated abandonment model, make maritimeEXODUS a truly unique tool for assessing the evacuation capabilities of all types of vessels under a variety of conditions. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS model, the SHEBA facility from which data concerning passenger/crew performance in conditions of heel is derived and an example application demonstrating the models use in performing an evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

Enhancing the usability of numerical models with case-based reasoning

Numerical models are important tools used in engineering fields to predict the behaviour and the impact of physical elements. There may be advantages to be gained by combining Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) techniques with numerical models. This paper considers how CBR can be used as a flexible query engine to improve the usability of numerical models. Particularly they can help to solve inverse and mixed problems, and to solve constraint problems. We discuss this idea with reference to the illustrative example of a pneumatic conveyor problem. The paper describes example problems faced by design engineers in this context and the issues that need to be considered in this approach. Solution of these problems require methods to handle constraints in both the retrieval phase and the adaptation phase of a typical CBR cycle. We show approaches to the solution of these problesm via a CBR tool.

A policy-definition language and prototype implementation library for policy-based autonomic systems

This paper presents work towards generic policy toolkit support for autonomic computing systems in which the policies themselves can be adapted dynamically and automatically. The work is motivated by three needs: the need for longer-term policy-based adaptation where the policy itself is dynamically adapted to continually maintain or improve its effectiveness despite changing environmental conditions; the need to enable non autonomics-expert practitioners to embed self-managing behaviours with low cost and risk; and the need for adaptive policy mechanisms that are easy to deploy into legacy code. A policy definition language is presented; designed to permit powerful expression of self-managing behaviours. The language is very flexible through the use of simple yet expressive syntax and semantics, and facilitates a very diverse policy behaviour space through both hierarchical and recursive uses of language elements. A prototype library implementation of the policy support mechanisms is described. The library reads and writes policies in well-formed XML script. The implementation extends the state of the art in policy-based autonomics through innovations which include support for multiple policy versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and meta-policies to dynamically select between policy instances and templates. Most significantly, the scheme supports hot-swapping between policy instances. To illustrate the feasibility and generalised applicability of these tools, two dissimilar example deployment scenarios are examined. The first is taken from an exploratory implementation of self-managing parallel processing, and is used to demonstrate the simple and efficient use of the tools. The second example demonstrates more-advanced functionality, in the context of an envisioned multi-policy stock trading scheme which is sensitive to environmental volatility

Generic support for policy-based self-adaptive systems

This paper presents a policy definition language which forms part of a generic policy toolkit for autonomic computing systems in which the policies themselves can be modified dynamically and automatically. Targeted enhancements to the current state of practice include: policy self-adaptation where the policy itself is dynamically modified to match environmental conditions; improved support for non autonomics-expert developers; and facilitating easy deployment of adaptive policies into legacy code. The policy definition language permits powerful expression of self-managing behaviours and facilitates a diverse policy behaviour space. Features include support for multiple versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and meta policies to dynamically select between policy instances. An example deployment scenario illustrates advanced functionality in the context of a multi policy stock trading system which is sensitive to environmental volatility.

Policy-based techniques for self-managing parallel applications

This paper presents an empirical investigation of policy-based self-management techniques for parallel applications executing in loosely-coupled environments. The dynamic and heterogeneous nature of these environments is discussed and the special considerations for parallel applications are identified. An adaptive strategy for the run-time deployment of tasks of parallel applications is presented. The strategy is based on embedding numerous policies which are informed by contextual and environmental inputs. The policies govern various aspects of behaviour, enhancing flexibility so that the goals of efficiency and performance are achieved despite high levels of environmental variability. A prototype self-managing parallel application is used as a vehicle to explore the feasibility and benefits of the strategy. In particular, several aspects of stability are investigated. The implementation and behaviour of three policies are discussed and sample results examined.

A study of modelling approaches for rail vehicle collision behaviour

A rigid wall model has been used widely in the numerical simulation of rail vehicle impacts. Finite element impact modelling of rail vehicles is generally based on a half-width and full-length or half-length structure, depending on the symmetry. The structure and components of rail vehicles are normally designed to cope with proof loading to ensure adequate ride performance. In this paper, the authors present a study of a rail vehicle with driving cab focused on improving the modelling approach and exploring the intrinsic structural weaknesses to enhance its crashworthiness. The underpinning research used finite element analysis and compared the behaviour of the rail vehicle in different impact scenarios. It was found that the simulation of a rigid wall impact can mask structural weaknesses; that even a completely symmetrical impact may lead to an asymmetrical result; that downward bending is an intrinsic weakness of conventional rail vehicles and that a rigid part of the vehicle structure, such as the body bolster, may cause uncoordinated deformation and shear fracture between the vehicle sections. These findings have significance for impact simulation, the full-scale testing of rail vehicles and rail vehicle design in general.

Reliability based design optimisation for system-in-package

This paper discusses a reliability based optimisation modelling approach demonstrated for the design of a SiP structure integrated by stacking dies one upon the other. In this investigation the focus is on the strategy for handling the uncertainties in the package design inputs and their implementation into the design optimisation modelling framework. The analysis of fhermo-mechanical behaviour of the package is utilised to predict the fatigue life-time of the lead-free board level solder interconnects and warpage of the package under thermal cycling. The SiP characterisation is obtained through the exploitation of Reduced Order Models (ROM) constructed using high fidelity analysis and Design of Experiments (DoE) methods. The design task is to identify the optimal SiP design specification by varying several package input parameters so that a specified target reliability of the solder joints is achieved and in the same time design requirements and package performance criteria are met

Application of modelling for predicting the behaviour of polymers and adhesives in microelectronic and photonic devices

With the growth in computing power, and advances in numerical methods for the solution of partial differential equations, modeling technologies based around computational fluid dynamics, finite element analysis and optimisation are now being widely used by researchers and industry. Polymer and adhesive materials are now being widely used in electronic and photonic devices. This paper will illustrate the use of modeling tools to predict the behaviour of these materials from product assembly to its performance and reliability.