Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

Spatial variability of air pollution in the vicinity of a permanent monitoring station in central Paris

The strong spatial and temporal variability of traffic-related air pollution detected at roadside locations in a number of European cities has raised the question of how representative the site and time period of air quality measurements actually can be. To address this question, a 7-month sampling campaign was carried out on a major road axis (Avenue Leclerc) leading to a very busy intersection (Place Basch) in central Paris, covering the surroundings of a permanent air quality monitoring station. This station has recorded the highest CO and NOx concentrations during recent years in the region of Paris. Diffusive BTX samplers as well as a mobile monitoring unit equipped with real-time CO, NOx and O3 analysers and meteorological instruments were used to reveal the small-scale pollution gradients and their temporal trends near the permanent monitoring station. The diffusive measurements provided 7-day averages of benzene, toluene, xylene and other hydrocarbons at different heights above the ground and distances from the kerb covering summer and winter periods. Relevant traffic and meteorological data were also obtained on an hourly basis. Furthermore, three semiempirical dispersion models (STREET-SRI, OSPM and AEOLIUS) were tested for an asymmetric canyon location in Av. Leclerc. The analysis of this comprehensive data set has helped to assess the representativeness of air quality monitoring information.

The AASK database V4.0: aircraft accident statistics and knowledge. A database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents

This paper describes the AASK database. The AASK database is unique as it is a record of human behaviour during survivable aviation accidents. The AASK database is compiled from interview data compiled by agencies such as the NTSB and the AAIB. The database can be found on the website http://fseg.gre.ac.uk

Aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database: analyzing passenger behavior in aviation accidents

The Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database is a repository of passenger accounts from survivable aviation accidents/incidents compiled from interview data collected by agencies such as the US NTSB. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It also plays a significant role in the development of the airEXODUS aircraft evacuation model, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. This paper describes the latest version of the database (Version 4.0) and includes some analysis of passenger behavior during actual accidents/incidents.

An analysis of the passenger to cabin crew ratio and exit reliability based on past survivable aviation accidents

A hotly debated issue in the area of aviation safety is the number of cabin crew members required to evacuate an aircraft in the event of an emergency. Most countries regulate the minimum number required for the safe operation of an aircraft, but these rulings are based on little if any scientific evidence. Another issue of concern is the failure rate of exits and slides. This paper examines these issues using the latest version of Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database AASK V4.0, which contains information from 105 survivable crashes and more than 2,000 survivors, including accounts from 155 cabin crew members.

CAA paper 2006/01: a database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents: the aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database (AASK)

This report concerns the development of the AASK V4.0 database (CAA Project 560/SRG/R+AD). AASK is the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database, which is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The AASK database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It is also key to the development of aircraft evacuation models such as airEXODUS, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. With support from the UK CAA (Project 277/SRG/R&AD), AASK V3.0 was developed. This was an on-line prototype system available over the internet to selected users and included a significantly increased number of passenger accounts compared with earlier versions, the introduction of cabin crew accounts, the introduction of fatality information and improved functionality through the seat plan viewer utility. The most recently completed AASK project (Project 560/SRG/R+AD) involved four main components: a) analysis of the data collected in V3.0; b) continued collection and entry of data into AASK; c) maintenance and functional development of the AASK database; and d) user feedback survey. All four components have been pursued and completed in this two-year project. The current version developed in the last year of the project is referred to as AASK V4.0. This report provides summaries of the work done and the results obtained in relation to the project deliverables.

Industrial water pollution in Dhaka, Bangladesh: strategies and incentives for pollution control in small and medium enterprises

The extent and gravity of the environmental degradation of the water resources in Dhaka due to untreated industrial waste is not fully recognised in international discourse. Pollution levels affect vast numbers, but the poor and the vulnerable are the worst affected. For example, rice productivity, the mainstay of poor farmers, in the Dhaka watershed has declined by 40% over a period of ten years. The study found significant correlations between water pollution and diseases such as jaundice, diarrhoea and skin problems. It was reported that the cost of treatment of one episode of skin disease could be as high as 29% of the weekly earnings of some of the poorest households. The dominant approach to deal with pollution in the SMEs is technocratic. Given the magnitude of the problem this paper argues that to control industrial pollution by SMEs and to enhance their compliance it is necessary to move from the technocratic approach to one which can also address the wider institutional and attitudinal issues. Underlying this shift is the need to adopt the appropriate methodology. The multi-stakeholder analysis enables an understanding of the actors, their influence, their capacity to participate in, or oppose change, and the existing and embedded incentive structures which allow them to pursue interests which are generally detrimental to environmental good. This enabled core and supporting strategies to be developed around three types of actors in industrial pollution, i.e., (i) principal actors, who directly contribute to industrial pollution; (ii) stakeholders who exacerbate the situation; and (iii) potential actors in mitigation. Within a carrot-and-stick framework, the strategies aim to improve environmental governance and transparency, set up a packet to incentive for industry and increase public awareness.

Strategies for water pollution control in Dhaka, Bangladesh: an institutional and economic analysis

This paper presents primary data based on research carried out as part of a large World Bank project. Results from our survey show that water pollution in Dhaka watershed has reached alarming levels and is posing significant threats to health and economic activity, particularly among the poor and vulnerable. Rice productivity in the watershed area, for example, has declined by 40% in recent years and vegetable cultivation in the riverbeds has been severely damaged. We also found significant correlation between water pollution and diseases such as jaundice, diarrhoea and skin problems. It was reported that the cost of treatment of skin diseases for one episode could be as high as 29% of the weekly earnings of poor households. Given the magnitude of the contamination problem, a multi-agent stakeholder approach was necessary to analyse the institutional and economic constraints that would need to be addressed in order to improve environmental management. This approach, in turn, enabled core strategies to be developed. The strategies were better understood around three types of actors in industrial pollution, i.e. (1) principal actors, who contribute directly to industrial pollution; (2) stakeholders, who exacerbate the situation by inaction; and (3) the potential actors in mitigation of water contamination. Within a carrot-and-stick framework, nine strategies leading to the strengthening of environmental management were explored. They aim at improving governance and transparency within public agencies and private industry through the setting up of incentive structures to advance compliance and enforcement of environmental standards. Civil society and the population at large are, on the other hand, encouraged to contribute actively to the mitigation of water pollution by improving the management of environmental information and by raising public awareness.