Predicting the past

H. Jiang, S. Gwynne, E.R. Galea, P. Lawrence, F. Jia and H. Ingason model a disco fire in Gothenburg, Sweden to compare the simulation’s predictions with actual events

An analysis of the passenger to cabin crew ratio and exit reliability based on past survivable aviation accidents

A hotly debated issue in the area of aviation safety is the number of cabin crew members required to evacuate an aircraft in the event of an emergency. Most countries regulate the minimum number required for the safe operation of an aircraft, but these rulings are based on little if any scientific evidence. Another issue of concern is the failure rate of exits and slides. This paper examines these issues using the latest version of Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database AASK V4.0, which contains information from 105 survivable crashes and more than 2,000 survivors, including accounts from 155 cabin crew members.