A Markov modulated Poisson process model for rainfall increments

The problems encountered when using traditional rectangular pulse hierarchical point processmodels for fine temporal resolution and the growing number of available tip-time records suggest that rainfall increments from tipping-bucket gauges be modelled directly. Poisson processes are used with an arrival rate modulated by a Markov chain in Continuous time. The paper shows how, by using two or three states for this chain, much of the structure of the rainfall intensity distribution and the wet/dry sequences can be represented for time-scales as small as 5 minutes.

Optimizing the operation of straight-grate iron-ore pellet induration systems using process models

Mathematical models of straight-grate pellet induration processes have been developed and carefully validated by a number of workers over the past two decades. However, the subsequent exploitation of these models in process optimization is less clear, but obviously requires a sound understanding of how the key factors control the operation. In this article, we show how a thermokinetic model of pellet induration, validated against operating data from one of the Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOCC) lines in Canada, can be exploited in process optimization from the perspective of fuel efficiency, production rate, and product quality. Most existing processes are restricted in the options available for process optimization. Here, we review the role of each of the drying (D), preheating (PH), firing (F), after-firing (AF), and cooling (C) phases of the induration process. We then use the induration process model to evaluate whether the first drying zone is best to use on the up- or down-draft gas-flow stream, and we optimize the on-gas temperature profile in the hood of the PH, F, and AF zones, to reduce the burner fuel by at least 10 pct over the long term. Finally, we consider how efficient and flexible the process could be if some of the structural constraints were removed (i.e., addressed at the design stage). The analysis suggests it should be possible to reduce the burner fuel lead by 35 pct, easily increase production by 5+ pct, and improve pellet quality.

A comprehensive copper stockpile leach model: background and model formulation

The first phase in the sign, development and implementation of a comprehensive computational model of a copper stockpile leach process is presented. The model accounts for transport phenomena through the stockpile, reaction kinetics for the important mineral species, oxgen and bacterial effects on the leach reactions, plus heat, energy and acid balances for the overall leach process. The paper describes the formulation of the leach process model and its implementation in PHYSICA+, a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) software environment. The model draws on a number of phenomena to represent the competing physical and chemical features active in the process model. The phenomena are essentially represented by a three-phased (solid liquid gas) multi-component transport system; novel algorithms and procedures are required to solve the model equations, including a methodology for dealing with multiple chemical species with different reaction rates in ore represented by multiple particle size fractions. Some initial validation results and application simulations are shown to illustrate the potential of the model.

Hydrocarbon field size distributions: a case study in mixed integer nonlinear programming

Of key importance to oil and gas companies is the size distribution of fields in the areas that they are drilling. Recent arguments suggest that there are many more fields yet to be discovered in mature provinces than had previously been thought because the underlying distribution is monotonic not peaked. According to this view the peaked nature of the distribution for discovered fields reflects not the underlying distribution but the effect of economic truncation. This paper contributes to the discussion by analysing up-to-date exploration and discovery data for two mature provinces using the discovery-process model, based on sampling without replacement and implicitly including economic truncation effects. The maximum likelihood estimation involved generates a high-dimensional mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. A highly efficient solution strategy is tested, exploiting the separable structure and handling the integer constraints by treating the problem as a masked allocation problem in dynamic programming.

The development of an advanced ship evacuation simulation software product and associated large scale testing facility for the collection of human shipboard behaviour data

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation point of view? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Herald of Free Enterprise and the Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerned with the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models offer the promise to quickly and efficiently bring evacuation considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board". maritimeEXODUS-winner of the BCS, CITIS and RINA awards - is such a model. Features such as the ability to realistically simulate human response to fire, the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations, a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios and with an integrated abandonment model, make maritimeEXODUS a truly unique tool for assessing the evacuation capabilities of all types of vessels under a variety of conditions. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS model, the SHEBA facility from which data concerning passenger/crew performance in conditions of heel is derived and an example application demonstrating the models use in performing an evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

Statistical analysis of extreme forest fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper extreme wildland fires are analysed using a point process model for extremes. The model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach is adapted with maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Semi-Parametric Analysis of Extreme Forest Fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper incidences of extreme wildland fires are modelled by a point process model which incorporates time-trend. A model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach, which is very useful in exploratory analysis of changes in extremes, is illustrated with the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

The numerical simulation of fire spread within a compartment using an integrated gas and solid phase combustion model

An integrated fire spread model is presented in this study including several sub-models representing different phenomena of gaseous and solid combustion. The integrated model comprises of the following sub-models: a gaseous combustion model, a thermal radiation model that includes the effects of soot, and a pyrolysis model for charring combustible solids. The interaction of the gaseous and solid phases are linked together through the boundary conditions of the governing equations for the flow domain and the solid region respectively. The integrated model is used to simulate a fire spread experiment conducted in a half-scale test compartment. Good qualitative and reasonable quantitative agreement is achieved between the experiment and numerical predictions.

Multiphysics modeling and its application to the casting process

A modeling strategy is presented to solve the governing equations of fluid flow, temperature (with solidification), and stress in an integrated manner. These equations are discretized using finite volume methods on unstructured grids, which provide the capability to represent complex domains. Both the cell-centered and vertex-based forms of the finite volume discretization procedure are explained, and the overall integrated solution procedure using these techniques with suitable solvers is detailed. Two industrial processes, based on the casting of metals, are used to demonstrate the capabilities of the resultant modeling framework. This manufacturing process requires a high degree of coupling between the governing physical equations to accurately predict potential defects. Comparisons between model predictions and experimental observations are given.

A case based model to assist in the design process in the manufacture of furniture products

This paper describes progress on a project to utilise case based reasoning methods in the design and manufacture of furniture products. The novel feature of this research is that cases are represented as structures in a relational database of products, components and materials. The paper proposes a method for extending the usual "weighted sum" over attribute similarities for a ·single table to encompass relational structures over several tables. The capabilities of the system are discussed, particularly with respect to differing user objectives, such as cost estimation, CAD, cutting scheme re-use, and initial design. It is shown that specification of a target case as a relational structure combined with suitable weights can fulfil several user functions. However, it is also shown that some user functions cannot satisfactorily be specified via a single target case. For these functions it is proposed to allow the specification of a set of target cases. A derived similarity measure between individuals and sets of cases is proposed.

A unified 3D model of the VAR process

A 3D time-dependent model of the VAR process has been developed using CFD techniques. The model solves the coupled field equations for fluid flow, heat transfer (including phase change) and electromagnetic field, for both the electrode and the ingot. The motion of the electic arc 'preferred spot' can be specified based on observations. Correlations are sought between the local gap height, resulting from instantaneous liquid pool surface shape and electrode tip shape, and the arc motion. The detailed behaviour of the melting film on the electrode tip is studies using a spectral free surface technique, which allows investigation of the drops' detachment and drip shorts.