Fitting host-parasitoid models with CV² > 1 using hierarchical generalized linear models

The powerful general Pacala-Hassell host-parasitoid model for a patchy environment, which allows host density–dependent heterogeneity (HDD) to be distinguished from between-patch, host density–independent heterogeneity (HDI), is reformulated within the class of the generalized linear model (GLM) family. This improves accessibility through the provision of general software within well–known statistical systems, and allows a rich variety of models to be formulated. Covariates such as age class, host density and abiotic factors may be included easily. For the case where there is no HDI, the formulation is a simple GLM. When there is HDI in addition to HDD, the formulation is a hierarchical generalized linear model. Two forms of HDI model are considered, both with between-patch variability: one has binomial variation within patches and one has extra-binomial, overdispersed variation within patches. Examples are given demonstrating parameter estimation with standard errors, and hypothesis testing. For one example given, the extra-binomial component of the HDI heterogeneity in parasitism is itself shown to be strongly density dependent.

A policy-definition language and prototype implementation library for policy-based autonomic systems

This paper presents work towards generic policy toolkit support for autonomic computing systems in which the policies themselves can be adapted dynamically and automatically. The work is motivated by three needs: the need for longer-term policy-based adaptation where the policy itself is dynamically adapted to continually maintain or improve its effectiveness despite changing environmental conditions; the need to enable non autonomics-expert practitioners to embed self-managing behaviours with low cost and risk; and the need for adaptive policy mechanisms that are easy to deploy into legacy code. A policy definition language is presented; designed to permit powerful expression of self-managing behaviours. The language is very flexible through the use of simple yet expressive syntax and semantics, and facilitates a very diverse policy behaviour space through both hierarchical and recursive uses of language elements. A prototype library implementation of the policy support mechanisms is described. The library reads and writes policies in well-formed XML script. The implementation extends the state of the art in policy-based autonomics through innovations which include support for multiple policy versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and meta-policies to dynamically select between policy instances and templates. Most significantly, the scheme supports hot-swapping between policy instances. To illustrate the feasibility and generalised applicability of these tools, two dissimilar example deployment scenarios are examined. The first is taken from an exploratory implementation of self-managing parallel processing, and is used to demonstrate the simple and efficient use of the tools. The second example demonstrates more-advanced functionality, in the context of an envisioned multi-policy stock trading scheme which is sensitive to environmental volatility