[BSHM meetings] Topics in the history of financial mathematics: early commerce to chaos in modern stock markets

This account provides an overview of the study day, entitled 'Topics in the History of Financial Mathematics: Early commerce to chaos in modern stock markets,' held by the British Society for the History of Mathematics jointly with Gresham College, at Gresham College, London on 25th April 2008. The series of talks explored the development of mathematics and mathematical techniques in a commercial and financial context.

Postcolonial futures: postcolonial literature and the Obama moment

In an analysis of President Obama's Acceptance Speech, this article argues that postcolonial theory is now being re-formulated for a global, transnational sensibility.

Postcolonial futures: postcolonial literature and the Obama moment

Since the late 1970s the western academy has encouraged the development of postcolonial literary theory and the formulation of a postcolonial literary canon existing outside the prescriptive narratives of the ‘mother’ country and empire. Having lost faith in the binary oppositions underpinning such narratives, we turned to alternative fictions that contested the construction of the ‘other’, the world divided between the ‘West and the Rest’. The publication of Edward Said’s Orientalism in 1978 marked the beginning of the discipline now known as postcolonial studies with its new ways of understanding ‘the west’s’ relationship with ‘the east’ and, by extension, all the former colonies of empire. Despite these radical origins, however, postcolonialism’s more recent emphasis on the psychological and its affirmation of the hybrid text and self has, for many, served to obscure real economic social realities that have very little to do with the magical or wondrous textual expression of a postcolonial identity. This paper considers problems associated with defining the postcolonial and proposes that, in a literary context, we broaden its meaning to include texts traditionally outside the category of postcolonial literature. To extend the meaning of postcolonial is timely as we are now witnessing its relocation from ‘margin’ to ‘centre’ with the election of Barack Obama. This moment may be seen as a disruption of conventional understandings of what constitutes postcolonial literature, essentially as oppositional discourse that could only define itself as peripheral to, or ‘post’, metropolitan and economic concerns. [From the Author]

Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

The future of energy: are competitive markets and nuclear power the answer?

The inaugural lecture of Professor Stephen Thomas at the University of Greenwich, 4th February 2010. It examines whether further pursuit of competition in energy markets and expansion in the role of nuclear power can be the main elements in a policy to meet goals of security, sustainability and affordability.