Statistical analysis of extreme forest fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper extreme wildland fires are analysed using a point process model for extremes. The model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach is adapted with maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Semi-Parametric Analysis of Extreme Forest Fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper incidences of extreme wildland fires are modelled by a point process model which incorporates time-trend. A model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach, which is very useful in exploratory analysis of changes in extremes, is illustrated with the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Extreme weather events and business continuity planning

There is now a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is changing in ways that are likely to have a profound impact on human society and the natural environment over the coming decades. The challenge for Facilities Mangers is to ensure that business continuity plans acknowledge the potential for such events and have contingencies in place to ensure that their organisation can recover from an extreme weather event in a timely fashion. This paper will review current literature/theories pertinent to extreme weather events and business continuity planning; will consider issues of risk; identify the key drivers that need to be considered by Facilities Managers in preparing contingency/disaster recover plans; and identify gaps in knowledge (understanding and toolkits) that need to be addressed. The paper will also briefly outline a 3 year research project underway in the UK to address the issues