The collection and analysis of pre-evacuation times derived from evacuation trials and their application to evacuation modelling

This paper presents data relating to occupant pre-evacuation times from university and hospital outpatient facilities. Although the two occupancies are entirely different, they do employ relatively similar procedures: members of staff sweep areas to encourage individuals to evacuate.However the manner in which the dependent population reacts to these procedures is quite different. In the hospital case, the patients only evacuated once a member of the nursing staff had instructed them to do so, while in the university evacuation, the students were less dependent upon the actions of the staff, with over 50% of them evacuating with no prior prompting. In addition, the student pre-evacuation time was found to be dependent on their level of engagement in various activities.

The collection of pre-evacuation times from evacuation trials involving a Hospital Outpatient area and a University Library facility

This paper presents data relating to occupant pre-evacuation times from a university and a hospital outpatient facility. Although the two structures are entirely different they do employ relatively similar procedures: members of staff sweeping areas of the structure to encourage individuals to evacuate. However, the manner in which the dependent population reacts to these procedures is quite different. In the hospital case the patients only evacuated once a member of the nursing staff had instructed them to do so while in the university evacuation the students were less dependent upon the actions of the staff with over 50% of them evacuating with no prior prompting. Although this data may be useful in a variety of areas, it was collected primarily for use within evacuation models.

Computational fire engineering - do we have what we need?

This presentation will attempt to address the issue of whether the engineering design community has the knowledge, data and tool sets required to undertake advanced evacuation analysis. In discussing this issue I want to draw on examples not only from the building industry but more widely from where ever people come into contact with an environment fashioned by man. Prescriptive design regulations the world over suggest that if we follow a particular set of essentially configurational regulations concerning travel distances, number of exits, exit widths, etc it should be possible to evacuate a structure within a pre-defined acceptable amount of time. In the U.K. for public buildings this turns out to be 2.5 minutes, internationally in the aviation industry this is 90 seconds, in the UK rail industry this is 90 seconds and the international standard adopted by the maritime industry is 60 minutes. The difficulties and short comings of this approach are well known and so I will not repeat them here, save to say that this approach is usually littered with “magic numbers” that do not stand up to scrutiny. As we are focusing on human behaviour issues, it is also worth noting that more generally, the approach fails to take into account how people actually behave, preferring to adopt an engineer’s view of what people should do in order to make their design work. Examples of the failure of this approach are legion and include the; Manchester Boeing 737 fire, Kings Cross underground station fire, Piper Alpha oil platform explosion, Ladbroke Grove Rail crash and fire, Mont Blanc tunnel fire, Scandinavian Star ferry fire and the Station Nightclub fire.

An analysis of the passenger to cabin crew ratio and exit reliability based on past survivable aviation accidents

A hotly debated issue in the area of aviation safety is the number of cabin crew members required to evacuate an aircraft in the event of an emergency. Most countries regulate the minimum number required for the safe operation of an aircraft, but these rulings are based on little if any scientific evidence. Another issue of concern is the failure rate of exits and slides. This paper examines these issues using the latest version of Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database AASK V4.0, which contains information from 105 survivable crashes and more than 2,000 survivors, including accounts from 155 cabin crew members.

Assessment of the impact of computed and measured fire environments on building evacuation using bench and real scale test data

This study investigates the use of computer modelled versus directly experimentally determined fire hazard data for assessing survivability within buildings using evacuation models incorporating Fractionally Effective Dose (FED) models. The objective is to establish a link between effluent toxicity, measured using a variety of small and large scale tests, and building evacuation. For the scenarios under consideration, fire simulation is typically used to determine the time non-survivable conditions develop within the enclosure, for example, when smoke or toxic effluent falls below a critical height which is deemed detrimental to evacuation or when the radiative fluxes reach a critical value leading to the onset of flashover. The evacuation calculation would the be used to determine whether people within the structure could evacuate before these critical conditions develop.

Predicting the likely impact of aircraft post crash fire on aircraft evacuation using fire and evacuation simulation

The SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire field model has successfully reproduced the observed characteristics including measured temperatures, species concentrations and time to flashover for a post-crash fire experiment conducted by the FAA within their C-133 cabin test facility. In this test only one exit was open in order to provide ventilation for the developing cabin fire. In real post-crash fires, many exits are likely to be open as passangers attempt to evacuate. In this paper, the likely impacts on evacuation of a post-crash fire in which various exiting combinations are available are investigated. The fire scenario, investigated using the SMARTFIRE software, is based on the C-133 experiment but with a fully furnished cabin and with four different exit availability options. The fire data is imported into the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software and the resulting evacuations examined. The combined fire and evacuation analysis reveals that even though the aircraft configuration is predicted to comfortably satisfy the evacuation certification requirement, when fire is included, a number of casualties result, even from the certification compliant exit configuration.

Investigating the representation of merging behavior at the floor–stair interface in computer simulations of multi-floor building evacuations

In this article, the representation of the merging process at the floor— stair interface is examined within a comprehensive evacuation model and trends found in experimental data are compared with model predictions. The analysis suggests that the representation of floor—stair merging within the comprehensive model appears to be consistent with trends observed within several published experiments of the merging process. In particular: (a) The floor flow rate onto the stairs decreases as the stair population density increases. (b) For a given stair population density, the floor population's flow rate onto the stairs can be maximized by connecting the floor to the landing adjacent to the incoming stair. (c) In situations where the floor is connected adjacent to the incoming stair, the merging process appears to be biased in favor of the floor population. It is further conjectured that when the floor is connected opposite the incoming stair, the merging process between the stair and floor streams is almost in balance for high stair population densities, with a slight bias in favor of the floor stream at low population densities. A key practical finding of this analysis is that the speed at which a floor can be emptied onto a stair can be enhanced simply by connecting the floor to the landing at a location adjacent to the incoming stair rather than opposite the stair. Configuring the stair in this way, while reducing the floor emptying time, results in a corresponding decrease in the descent flow rate of those already on the stairs. While this is expected to have a negligible impact on the overall time to evacuate the building, the evacuation time for those higher up in the building is extended while those on the lower flows is reduced. It is thus suggested that in high-rise buildings, floors should be connected to the landing on the opposite side to the incoming stair. Information of this type will allow engineers to better design stair—floor interfaces to meet specific design objectives.

Investigating the use of elevators for high-rise building evacuation through computer simulation

This paper presents a description of a new agent based elevator sub-model developed as part of the buildingEXODUS software intended for both evacuation and circulation applications. A description of each component of the newly developed model is presented, including the elevator kinematics and associated pedestrian behaviour. The elevator model is then used to investigate a series of full building evacuation scenarios based on a hypothetical 50 floor building with four staircases and a population of 7,840 agents. The analysis explores the relative merits of using up to 32 elevators (arranged in four banks) and various egress strategies to evacuate the entire building population. Findings from the investigation suggest that the most efficient evacuation strategy utilises a combination of elevators and stairs to empty the building and clear the upper half of the building in minimum time. Combined stair elevator evacuation times have been shown to be as much as 50% faster than stair only evacuation times.