A review of the methodologies used in the computer simulation of evacuation from the built environment

Computer based analysis of evacuation can be performed using one of three different approaches, namely optimisation, simulation or risk assessment. Furthermore, within each approach different means of representing the enclosure, the population, and the behaviour of the population are possible. The myriad of approaches which are available has led to the development of some 22 different evacuation models. This article attempts to describe each of the modelling approaches adopted and critically review the inherent capabilities of each approach. The review is based on available published literature.

Predictive reliability, prognostics and risk assessment for power modules

This paper describes a framework that is being developed for the prediction and analysis of electronics power module reliability both for qualification testing and in-service lifetime prediction. Physics of failure (PoF) reliability methodology using multi-physics high-fidelity and reduced order computer modelling, as well as numerical optimization techniques, are integrated in a dedicated computer modelling environment to meet the needs of the power module designers and manufacturers as well as end-users for both design and maintenance purposes. An example of lifetime prediction for a power module solder interconnect structure is described. Another example is the lifetime prediction of a power module for a railway traction control application. Also in the paper a combined physics of failure and data trending prognostic methodology for the health monitoring of power modules is discussed.

Probabilistic modeling of structural deterioration of reinforced concrete beams under saline environment corrosion

For existing reinforced concrete structures exposed to saline or marine conditions, there is an increasing engineering interest in their remaining safety and serviceability. A significant factor is the corrosion of steel reinforcement. At present there is little field experience and other data available. This limits the possibility for developing purely empirical models for strength and performance deterioration for use in structural safety and serviceability assessment. An alternative approach using theoretical concepts and probabilistic modeling is proposed herein. It is based on the evidence that the rate of diffusion of chlorides is influenced by internal damage to the concrete surrounding the reinforcement. This may be due to localized stresses resulting from external loading or through concrete shrinkage. Usually, the net effect is that the time to initiation of active corrosion is shortened, leading to greater localized corrosion and earlier reduction of ultimate capacity and structural stiffness. The proposed procedure is applied to an example beam and compared to experimental observations,including estimates of uncertainty in the remaining ultimate moment capacity and beam stiffness. Reasonably good agreement between the results of the proposed procedure and the experiment was found

Condition assessment of a 63-year old reinforced concrete structure exposed to the North Sea

This paper describes the condition of a reinforced concrete balustrade consisting of some 1000 individual beam elements all exposed similarly to the hostile marine environment of the North Sea at Arbroath, Scotland since 1943. A comparison is made of the condition of the original construction with the condition of repairs carried out in 1968 and in 1993. It is shown that the 1943 construction shows very little corrosion-induced cracking and little rust staining even though it does not appear to be of high construction quality. Only a very low percentage of the balustrade beams have been replaced. In contrast the beam installed in 1968 and later in 1993 show very considerable and large concrete cracks directly attributable to the corrosion of the longitudinal reinforcement, even though the concrete is of a higher quality and density. A detailed condition survey and statistics of crack sizes are presented in the paper. It is found that the higher corrosion resistance of the 1943 concrete is generally consistent with the concrete electrical resistivity measurements but the degree of corrosion of the reinforcing bars is inconsistent with chloride penetration measurements. The results are compared with the very few observations available in the literature for ageing concrete structures in marine environments. The results cast doubt on the conventional wisdom that chloride content at the reinforcement correlates well with reinforcement corrosion.