Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

[BSHM meetings] Topics in the history of financial mathematics: early commerce to chaos in modern stock markets

This account provides an overview of the study day, entitled 'Topics in the History of Financial Mathematics: Early commerce to chaos in modern stock markets,' held by the British Society for the History of Mathematics jointly with Gresham College, at Gresham College, London on 25th April 2008. The series of talks explored the development of mathematics and mathematical techniques in a commercial and financial context.

The future of energy: are competitive markets and nuclear power the answer?

The inaugural lecture of Professor Stephen Thomas at the University of Greenwich, 4th February 2010. It examines whether further pursuit of competition in energy markets and expansion in the role of nuclear power can be the main elements in a policy to meet goals of security, sustainability and affordability.