Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Global experience with electricity liberalisation

This paper examines global experiences with electricity liberalisation relevant to the new legislation on electricity passed by the Indonesian parliament in September 2009. It covers experiences in the UK, EU, USA and ten major developing economies. Finally, the paper comments on a number of the issues emerging from this survey, in particular the reliance on public finance for extensions to electricity networks, the advantages of public finance for cheaper capital and for developing renewables, and the comparative evidence on efficiency.