Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

The effect of ownership structure, country governance, and financial development on the capital structure of unlisted eastern European firms

This paper investigates the determinants of capital structure for a sample of 20,713 unlisted firms from 11 eastern European countries over the period 1994-2004. We employ usual firm-specific financial variables as well as country-specific variables that describe the degrees of governance structure and financial development of each country. Using regression analysis, our results indicate that firm ownership concentration and country governance structure are insignificant explanatory variables to the degree of leverage of the firms in our sample. On the other hand, indicators of country financial development are robust determinants of capital structure. However, the marginal explanatory power of country-specific variables is small. We conclude that firm-specific characteristics are decisive in capital structure.

The performance and persistence of exchange-traded funds: evidence for iShares MSCI country-specific ETFs

The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance and persistence of 20 iShares MSCI country-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in comparison with S&P 500 index over the period July 2001 to June 2006. There are several studies analysing mutual funds performance in past years, but very little is known about ETFs. In our analysis the Sharpe, Treynor and Sortino ratios are used as risk-adjusted performance measures. To evaluate performance persistence and therefore if there is any relationship among past performance and future performance, we apply to the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient and the Winner-loser Contingency Table. The main findings are at two levels. First, ETFs can beat the U.S. market index based on risk-adjusted performance measures. Second, there is evidence of ETFs performance persistence based on annual return.