Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

SWITCH city facilitated progress analysis: Cali

This report aims at providing an evaluation of the Learning Alliance (LA) process in Cali, Colombia, after 17 months from its inception. In fact, Cali has become a SWITCH demonstration city only at the beginning of 2008. Until then, Cali had only been a SWITCH case study. The establishment of the LA started de facto in April 2007. The relative magnitude of the impact achieved so far by the local LA has to be seen in the light of its limited duration.