Fitting host-parasitoid models with CV² > 1 using hierarchical generalized linear models

The powerful general Pacala-Hassell host-parasitoid model for a patchy environment, which allows host density–dependent heterogeneity (HDD) to be distinguished from between-patch, host density–independent heterogeneity (HDI), is reformulated within the class of the generalized linear model (GLM) family. This improves accessibility through the provision of general software within well–known statistical systems, and allows a rich variety of models to be formulated. Covariates such as age class, host density and abiotic factors may be included easily. For the case where there is no HDI, the formulation is a simple GLM. When there is HDI in addition to HDD, the formulation is a hierarchical generalized linear model. Two forms of HDI model are considered, both with between-patch variability: one has binomial variation within patches and one has extra-binomial, overdispersed variation within patches. Examples are given demonstrating parameter estimation with standard errors, and hypothesis testing. For one example given, the extra-binomial component of the HDI heterogeneity in parasitism is itself shown to be strongly density dependent.

A unified 3D model of the VAR process

A 3D time-dependent model of the VAR process has been developed using CFD techniques. The model solves the coupled field equations for fluid flow, heat transfer (including phase change) and electromagnetic field, for both the electrode and the ingot. The motion of the electic arc 'preferred spot' can be specified based on observations. Correlations are sought between the local gap height, resulting from instantaneous liquid pool surface shape and electrode tip shape, and the arc motion. The detailed behaviour of the melting film on the electrode tip is studies using a spectral free surface technique, which allows investigation of the drops' detachment and drip shorts.

Models for magnetohydrodynamics of aluminium electrolysis cells

The electric current and the associated magnetic field in aluminium electrolysis cells create effects limiting the cell productivity and possibly cause instabilities: surface waving, ‘anode effects’, erosion of pot lining, feed material sedimentation, etc. The instructive analysis is presented via a step by step inclusion of different physical coupling factors affecting the magnetic field, electric current, velocity and wave development in the electrolysis cells. The full time dependent model couples the nonlinear turbulent fluid dynamics and the extended electromagnetic field in the cell, and the whole bus bar circuit with the ferromagnetic effects. Animated examples for the high amperage cells are presented. The theory and numerical model of the electrolysis cell is extended to the cases of variable cell bottom of aluminium layer and the variable thickness of the electrolyte due to the anode non-uniform burn-out process and the presence of the anode channels. The problem of the channel importance is well known Moreau-Evans model) for the stationary interface and the velocity field, and was validated against measurements in commercial cells, particularly with the recently published ‘benchmark’ test for the MHD models of aluminium cells [1]. The presence of electrolyte channels requires also to reconsider the previous magnetohydrodynamic instability theories and the dynamic wave development models. The results indicate the importance of a ‘sloshing’ parametrically excited MHD wave development in the aluminium production cells.