Local likelihood smoothing of sample extremes

Trends in sample extremes are of interest in many contexts, an example being environmental statistics. Parametric models are often used to model trends in such data, but they may not be suitable for exploratory data analysis. This paper outlines a semiparametric approach to smoothing example extremes, based on local polynomial fitting of the generalized extreme value distribution and related models. The uncertainty of fits is assessed by using resampling methods. The methods are applied to data on extreme temperatures and on record times for the womens 3000m race.

A volume of fluid numerical model for wave impacts at coastal structures

The first stages in the development of a new design tool, to be used by coastal engineers to improve the efficiency, analysis, design, management and operation of a wide range of coastal and harbour structures, are described. The tool is based on a two-dimensional numerical model, NEWMOTICS-2D, using the volume of fluid (VOF) method, which permits the rapid calculation of wave hydrodynamics at impermeable natural and man-made structures. The critical hydrodynamic flow processes and forces are identified together with the equations that describe these key processes. The different possible numerical approaches for the solution of these equations, and the types of numerical models currently available, are examined and assessed. Preliminary tests of the model, using comparisons with results from a series of hydraulic model test cases, are described. The results of these tests demonstrate that the VOF approach is particularly appropriate for the simulation of the dynamics of waves at coastal structures because of its flexibility in representing the complex free surfaces encountered during wave impact and breaking. The further programme of work, required to develop the existing model into a tool for use in routine engineering design, is outlined.

Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

Modelling the wave soldering process

Compuational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to help understand the gas flow characteristics in the wave soldering process. CFD has the ability to calculate (1) heal transfer, (2) fluid dynamics, and (3) oxygen concentration throughout the wave soldering machine. Understanding the impact of fluid dynamics on oxygen concentration is important as excessive oxygen at the solder bath can lead to high dross contents and hence poor solder joint quality on the printed circuit board. This paper describes the CFD modelling approach and illustrates its capability for a machine which has nitrogen injectors near the solder bath. Different magnitiutes of nitrogen flow rates are investigated and it is demonstrated how these effect the oxygen concentration at the bath surface.

Optimising the wave soldering process for lead free solders

Nitrogen is now used in wave soldering machines to help lower the amount of dross that can be formed on the solder bath surface. The paper provides details on the use of computational fluid dynamics in helping understand the flow profiles of nitrogen in a wave soldering machine and to predict the concentration of nitrogen and oxygen around the solder bath.