Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

Policy-centric integration and dynamic composition of autonomic computing techniques

This paper presents innovative work in the development of policy-based autonomic computing. The core of the work is a powerful and flexible policy-expression language AGILE, which facilitates run-time adaptable policy configuration of autonomic systems. AGILE also serves as an integrating platform for other self-management technologies including signal processing, automated trend analysis and utility functions. Each of these technologies has specific advantages and applicability to different types of dynamic adaptation. The AGILE platform enables seamless interoperability of the different technologies to each perform various aspects of self-management within a single application. The various technologies are implemented as object components. Self-management behaviour is specified using the policy language semantics to bind the various components together as required. Since the policy semantics support run-time re-configuration, the self-management architecture is dynamically composable. Additional benefits include the standardisation of the application programmer interface, terminology and semantics, and only a single point of embedding is required.

A versatile policy toolkit supporting run-time policy reconfiguration

This paper describes an autonomics development tool which serves as both a powerful and flexible policy-expression language and a policy-based framework that supports the integration and dynamic composition of several autonomic computing techniques including signal processing, automated trend analysis and utility functions. Each of these technologies has specific advantages and applicability to different types of dynamic adaptation. The AGILE platform enables seamless interoperability of the different technologies to each perform various aspects of self-management within a single application. Self-management behaviour is specified using the policy language semantics to bind the various technologies together as required. Since the policy semantics support run-time re-configuration, the self-management architecture is dynamically composable. The policy language and implementation library have integrated support for self-stabilising behaviour, enabling oscillation and other forms of instability to be handled at the policy level with very little effort on the part of the application developer. Example applications are presented to illustrate the integration of different autonomics techniques, and the achievement of dynamic composition.

Semi-Parametric Analysis of Extreme Forest Fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper incidences of extreme wildland fires are modelled by a point process model which incorporates time-trend. A model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach, which is very useful in exploratory analysis of changes in extremes, is illustrated with the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Fracture mechanics analysis of cracks in solder joint intermetallic compounds

The trend towards miniaturization of electronic products leads to the need for very small sized solder joints. Therefore, there is a higher reliability risk that too large a fraction of solder joints will transform into Intermetallic Compounds (IMCs) at the solder interface. In this paper, fracture mechanics study of the IMC layer for SnPb and Pb-free solder joints was carried out using finite element numerical computer modelling method. It is assumed that only one crack is present in the IMC layer. Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) approach is used for parametric study of the Stress Intensity Factors (SIF, KI and KII), at the predefined crack in the IMC layer of solder butt joint tensile sample. Contrary to intuition, it is revealed that a thicker IMC layer in fact increases the reliability of solder joint for a cracked IMC. Value of KI and KII are found to decrease with the location of the crack further away from the solder interfaces while other parameters are constant. Solder thickness and strain rate were also found to have a significant influence on the SIF values. It has been found that soft solder matrix generates non-uniform plastic deformation across the solder-IMC interface near the crack tip that is responsible to obtain higher KI and KII.