Semi-Parametric Analysis of Extreme Forest Fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper incidences of extreme wildland fires are modelled by a point process model which incorporates time-trend. A model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach, which is very useful in exploratory analysis of changes in extremes, is illustrated with the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Integrating personnel movement simulation into prelimary ship design

Traditionally, when designing a ship the driving issues are seen to be powering, stability, strength and seakeeping. Issues related to ship operations and evolutions are investigated later in the design process, within the constraint of a fixed layout. This can result in operational inefficiencies and limitations, excessive crew numbers and potentially hazardous situations. This paper summarises work by University College London and the University of Greenwich prior to the completion of a three year EPSRC funded research project to integrate the simulation of personnel movement into early stage ship design. This integration is intended to facilitate the assessment of onboard operations while the design is still highly amenable to change. The project brings together the University of Greenwich developed maritimeEXODUS personnel movement simulation software and the SURFCON implementation of the Design Building Block approach to early stage ship design, which originated with the UCL Ship Design Research team and has been implemented within the PARAMARINE ship design system produced by Graphics Research Corporation. Central to the success of this project is the definition of a suitable series of Performance Measures (PM) which can be used to assess the human performance of the design in different operational scenarios. The paper outlines the progress made on deriving the PM from human dynamics criteria measured in simulations and their incorporation into a Human Performance Metric (HPM) for analysis. It describes the production of a series of SURFCON ship designs, based on the Royal Navy’s Type 22 Batch 3 frigate, and their analysis using the PARAMARINE and maritimeEXODUS software. Conclusions on the work to date and for the remainder of the project are presented addressing the integration of personnel movement simulation into the preliminary ship design process.

The world nuclear industry status report 2009: with particular emphasis on economic issues

A detailed review of the status of the world nuclear industry with particular emphasis on economic aspects.

Jung as a writer

Jung as a Writer traces a relationship between Jung and literature by analysing his texts using the methodology of literary theory. This investigation serves to illuminate the literary nature of Jung’s writing in order to shed new light on his psychology and its relationship with literature as a cultural practice. Jung employed literary devices throughout his writing, including direct and indirect argument, anecdote, fantasy, myth, epic, textual analysis and metaphor. Susan Rowland examines Jung’s use of literary techniques in several of his works, including Anima and Animus, On the Nature of the Psyche, Psychology and Alchemy and Synchronicity and describes Jung’s need for literature in order to capture in writing his ideas about the unconscious. Jung as a Writer succeeds in demonstrating Jung’s contribution to literary and cultural theory in autobiography, gender studies, postmodernism, feminism, deconstruction and hermeneutics and concludes by giving a new culturally-orientated Jungian criticism. The application of literary theory to Jung’s works provides a new perspective on Jungian Psychology that will be of interest to anyone involved in the study of Jung, Psychoanalysis, literary theory and cultural studies. [From the Publisher]