Kappa calculus and evidential strength: A note on Åqvist's logical theory of legal evidence

Lennart Åqvist (1992) proposed a logical theory of legal evidence, based on the Bolding-Ekelöf of degrees of evidential strength. This paper reformulates Åqvist's model in terms of the probabilistic version of the kappa calculus. Proving its acceptability in the legal context is beyond the present scope, but the epistemological debate about Bayesian Law isclearly relevant. While the present model is a possible link to that lineof inquiry, we offer some considerations about the broader picture of thepotential of AI & Law in the evidentiary context. Whereas probabilisticreasoning is well-researched in AI, calculations about the threshold ofpersuasion in litigation, whatever their value, are just the tip of theiceberg. The bulk of the modeling desiderata is arguably elsewhere, if one isto ideally make the most of AI's distinctive contribution as envisaged forlegal evidence research.

[Book review] Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour

Tony Mann provides a review of the book: Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, Princeton University Press, 1944.

A design pattern for integration of business process management systems

A cross-domain workflow application may be constructed using a standard reference model such as the one by the Workflow Management Coalition (WfMC) [7] but the requirements for this type of application are inherently different from one organization to another. The existing models and systems built around them meet some but not all the requirements from all the organizations involved in a collaborative process. Furthermore the requirements change over time. This makes the applications difficult to develop and distribute. Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) based approaches such as the BPET (Business Process Execution Language) intend to provide a solution but fail to address the problems sufficiently, especially in the situations where the expectations and level of skills of the users (e.g. the participants of the processes) in different organisations are likely to be different. In this paper, we discuss a design pattern that provides a novel approach towards a solution. In the solution, business users can design the applications at a high level of abstraction: the use cases and user interactions; the designs are documented and used, together with the data and events captured later that represents the user interactions with the systems, to feed an intermediate component local to the users -the IFM (InterFace Mapper) -which bridges the gaps between the users and the systems. We discuss the main issues faced in the design and prototyping. The approach alleviates the need for re-programming with the APIs to any back-end service thus easing the development and distribution of the applications

What is the value of technology? Toward a labour theory of technology change

Economic analysis of technology treats it as given exogenously, while determined endogenously. This paper examines the conceptual conflict. The paper outlines an alternative conceptual framework. This uses a 'General Vertical Division of Labour' into conceptual and executive parts to facilitate a coherent political economic explanation of technological change. The paper suggests that we may acquire rather than impose an understanding of technological change. It also suggests that we may re-define and reassess the efficiency of technological change, through the values inculcated into it.

Grandparents and parenting: towards a theory of grandparenthood

This paper explores the changing role of contemporary grandparents with many demonstrating a willingness and ability to take on parental responsibilities for their grandchildren, where they may face challenges and opportunities in difficult times. Three main forms of grand parenting are identified in the literature, those who have primary responsibility and are raising their grand children as their main carers perhaps in response to crisis situations, those who live in extended families and participate in care, and those who provide day care while the child’s parents work. The latter has increased because of the increasing frequency of divorce, single parenting and the lack of available or subsidised child care in the United Kingdom. When grandparents step into a troubled situation and attempt to offer stability and security for their grandchildren they may have to manage the combined responsibilities of family caregivers and parental figures. Grandparenthood is a tenuous role, lacking clear agreement on behaviour norms. In the culture of advice and parenting support, while care must be taken not to undermine parenting skills or make judgements about the ability to cope with the demands of childcare, an exploration of the impact on grandparents and children must be undertaken. Due to the complex web of interrelated factors the process and outcomes of care giving by grandparents is not well known in the literature. It is proposed therefore that it is timely for research to be undertaken to explore and develop a theory of Grandparenthood.

The determinants of business performance of estate agency in England and Wales

Purpose: This paper seeks to investigate the factors influencing the business performance of estate agency in England and Wales. Design/methodology/approach: The paper investigates the effect of housing market, company size and pricing policy on business performance in the estate agency sector in England and Wales. The analysis uses the survey data of Woolwich Cost of Moving Survey (a survey of transactions costs sponsored by the Woolwich/Barclays Bank) from 2003 to 2005 to test the hypothesis that the business performance of estate agency is affected by industry characteristics and firm factors. Findings: The empirical analysis indicates that the business performance of estate agency is subject to market environment volatility such as market uncertainty, housing market liquidity and house price changes. The firm factors such as firm size and the level of agency fee have no explanatory power in explaining business performance. The level of agency fee is positively associated with firm size, market environment and liquidity. Research limitations/implications: The research is limited to the data received and is based on a research project on transaction costs designed prior to this analysis. Originality/value: There is little other research that investigates the factors determining the business performance of estate agency, using consecutive data of three years across England and Wales. The findings are useful for practitioners and/or managers to allocate resources and adjust their business strategy to enhance business performance in the estate agency sector.