Building temporal constraints into knowledge bases for process control: an examination [Reply to author's reply]

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Temporal management using relative time in knowledge-based process control

In this paper, a knowledge-based approach is proposed for the management of temporal information in process control. A common-sense theory of temporal constraints over processes/events, allowing relative temporal knowledge, is employed here as the temporal basis for the system. This theory supports duration reasoning and consistency checking, and accepts relative temporal knowledge which is in a form normally used by human operators. An architecture for process control is proposed which centres on an historical database consisting of events and processes, together with the qualitative temporal relationships between their occurrences. The dynamics of the system is expressed by means of three types of rule: database updating rules, process control rules, and data deletion rules. An example is provided in the form of a life scheduler, to illustrate the database and the rule sets. The example demonstrates the transitions of the database over time, and identifies the procedure in terms of a state transition model for the application. The dividing instant problem for logical inference is discussed with reference to this process control example, and it is shown how the temporal theory employed can be used to deal with the problem.

Representing and recognizing scenario patterns

This paper presents a formal method for representing and recognizing scenario patterns with rich internal temporal aspects. A scenario is presented as a collection of time-independent fluents, together with the corresponding temporal knowledge that can be relative and/or with absolute values. A graphical representation for temporal scenarios is introduced which supports consistence checking as for the temporal constraints. In terms of such a graphical representation, graph-matching algorithms/methodologies can be directly adopted for recognizing scenario patterns.

Matching case history patterns in case-based reasoning

This paper introduces a mechanism for representing and recognizing case history patterns with rich internal temporal aspects. A case history is characterized as a collection of elemental cases as in conventional case-based reasoning systems, together with the corresponding temporal constraints that can be relative and/or with absolute values. A graphical representation for case histories is proposed as a directed, partially weighted and labeled simple graph. In terms of such a graphical representation, an eigen-decomposition graph matching algorithm is proposed for recognizing case history patterns.

Temporal modelling of short-term rainfall using Cox processes

We study two marked point process models based on the Cox process. These models are used to describe the probabilistic structure of the rainfall intensity process. Mathematical formulation of the models is described and some second-moment characteristics of the rainfall depth, and aggregated processes are considered. The derived second-order properties of the accumulated rainfall amounts at different levels of aggregation are used in order to examine the model fit. A brief data analysis is presented. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Guest Editorial. Special Issue: Temporal logic in engineering

Logic-based models are thriving within artificial intelligence. A great number of new logics have been defined, and their theory investigated. Epistemic logics introduce modal operators for knowledge or belief; deontic logics are about norms, and introduce operators of deontic necessity and possibility (i.e., obligation or prohibition). And then we have a much investigated class—temporal logics—to whose application to engineering this special issue is devoted. This kind of formalism deserves increased widespread recognition and application in engineering, a domain where other kinds of temporal models (e.g., Petri nets) are by now a fairly standard part of the modelling toolbox.

Visualizing a temporal consistency checker

The notion of time plays a vital and ubiquitous role of a common universal reference. In knowledge-based systems, temporal information is usually represented in terms of a collection of statements, together with the corresponding temporal reference. This paper introduces a visualized consistency checker for temporal reference. It allows expression of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge, and provides visual representation of temporal references in terms of directed and partially weighted graphs. Based on the temporal reference of a given scenario, the visualized checker can deliver a verdict to the user as to whether the scenario is temporally consistent or not, and provide the corresponding analysis / diagnosis.

Deriving explanations from partial temporal information

The representation and manipulation of natural human understanding of temporal phenomena is a fundamental field of study in Computer Science, which aims both to emulate human thinking, and to use the methods of human intelligence to underpin engineering solutions. In particular, in the domain of Artificial Intelligence, temporal knowledge may be uncertain and incomplete due to the unavailability of complete and absolute temporal information. This paper introduces an inferential framework for deriving logical explanations from partial temporal information. Based on a graphical representation which allows expression of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge in incomplete forms, the system can deliver a verdict to the question if a given set of statements is temporally consistent or not, and provide understandable logical explanation of analysis by simplified contradiction and rule based reasoning.

Uncertainty analysis to minimise risk in designing micro-electronics manufacturing processes

A design methodology based on numerical modelling, integrated with optimisation techniques and statistical methods, to aid the process control of micro and nano-electronics based manufacturing processes is presented in this paper. The design methodology is demonstrated for a micro-machining process called Focused Ion Beam (FIB). This process has been modelled to help understand how a pre-defined geometry of micro- and nano- structures can be achieved using this technology. The process performance is characterised on the basis of developed Reduced Order Models (ROM) and are generated using results from a mathematical model of the Focused Ion Beam and Design of Experiment (DoE) methods. Two ion beam sources, Argon and Gallium ions, have been used to compare and quantify the process variable uncertainties that can be observed during the milling process. The evaluations of the process performance takes into account the uncertainties and variations of the process variables and are used to identify their impact on the reliability and quality of the fabricated structure. An optimisation based design task is to identify the optimal process conditions, by varying the process variables, so that certain quality objectives and requirements are achieved and imposed constraints are satisfied. The software tools used and developed to demonstrate the design methodology are also presented.

A framework for state-based time-series analysis and prediction

Time-series analysis and prediction play an important role in state-based systems that involve dealing with varying situations in terms of states of the world evolving with time. Generally speaking, the world in the discourse persists in a given state until something occurs to it into another state. This paper introduces a framework for prediction and analysis based on time-series of states. It takes a time theory that addresses both points and intervals as primitive time elements as the temporal basis. A state of the world under consideration is defined as a set of time-varying propositions with Boolean truth-values that are dependent on time, including properties, facts, actions, events and processes, etc. A time-series of states is then formalized as a list of states that are temporally ordered one after another. The framework supports explicit expression of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge. A formal schema for expressing general time-series of states to be incomplete in various ways, while the concept of complete time-series of states is also formally defined. As applications of the formalism in time-series analysis and prediction, we present two illustrating examples.

Strategies for water pollution control in Dhaka, Bangladesh: an institutional and economic analysis

This paper presents primary data based on research carried out as part of a large World Bank project. Results from our survey show that water pollution in Dhaka watershed has reached alarming levels and is posing significant threats to health and economic activity, particularly among the poor and vulnerable. Rice productivity in the watershed area, for example, has declined by 40% in recent years and vegetable cultivation in the riverbeds has been severely damaged. We also found significant correlation between water pollution and diseases such as jaundice, diarrhoea and skin problems. It was reported that the cost of treatment of skin diseases for one episode could be as high as 29% of the weekly earnings of poor households. Given the magnitude of the contamination problem, a multi-agent stakeholder approach was necessary to analyse the institutional and economic constraints that would need to be addressed in order to improve environmental management. This approach, in turn, enabled core strategies to be developed. The strategies were better understood around three types of actors in industrial pollution, i.e. (1) principal actors, who contribute directly to industrial pollution; (2) stakeholders, who exacerbate the situation by inaction; and (3) the potential actors in mitigation of water contamination. Within a carrot-and-stick framework, nine strategies leading to the strengthening of environmental management were explored. They aim at improving governance and transparency within public agencies and private industry through the setting up of incentive structures to advance compliance and enforcement of environmental standards. Civil society and the population at large are, on the other hand, encouraged to contribute actively to the mitigation of water pollution by improving the management of environmental information and by raising public awareness.