The EXODUS evacuation model applied to building evacuation scenarios

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of the EXODUS evacuation model in building environments. The latest PC/workstation version of EXODUS is described and is also applied to a large hypothetical supermarket/restaurant complex measuring 50 m x 40 m. A range of scenarios is presented where population characteristics (such as size, individual travel speeds, and individual response times), and enclosure configuration characteristics (such as number of exits, size of exits, and opening times of exits) are varied. The results demonstrate a wide range of occupant behavior including overtaking, queuing, redirection, and conflict avoidance. Evacuation performance is measured by a number of model predicted parameters including individual exit flow rates, overall evacuation flow rates, total evacuation time, average evacuation time per occupant, average travel distance, and average wait time. The simulations highlight the profound impact that variations in individual travel speeds and occupant response times have in determining the overall evacuation performance.

The Exodus evacuation model applied to building evacuation scenarios

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of the EXODUS evacuation model in building environments. The latest PC/workstation version of EXODUS is described and is also applied to a large hypothetical supermarket/restaurant complex measuring 50 m x 40 m. A range of scenarios is presented where population characteristics (such as size, individual travel speeds, and individual response times), and enclosure configuration characteristics (such as number of exits, size of exits, and opening times of exits) are varied. The results demonstrate a wide range of occupant behavior including overtaking, queuing, redirection, and conflict avoidance. Evacuation performance is measured by a number of model predicted parameters including individual exit flow rates, overall evacuation flow rates, total evacuation time, average evacuation time per occupant, average travel distance, and average wait time. The simulations highlight the profound impact that variations in individual travel speeds and occupant response times have in determining the overall evacuation performance. 1. Jin, T., and Yamada T., "Experimental Study of Human Behavior in Smoke Filled Corridors," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 511-519. 2. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "EXODUS: An Evacuation Model for Mass Transport Vehicles," UK CAA Paper 93006 ISBN 086039 543X, CAA London, 1993. 3. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "A Computer Based Simulation Model for the Prediction of Evacuation from Mass Transport Vehicles," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 22, 1994, pp. 341-366. 4. Galea, E.R., Owen, M., and Lawrence, P., "Computer Modeling of Human Be havior in Aircraft Fire Accidents," to appear in the Proceedings of Combus tion Toxicology Symposium, CAMI, Oklahoma City, OK, 1995. 5. Kisko, T.M. and Francis, R.L., "EVACNET+: A Computer Program to Determine Optimal Building Evacuation Plans," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 9, 1985, pp. 211-220. 6. Levin, B., "EXITT, A Simulation Model of Occupant Decisions and Actions in Residential Fires," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 561-570. 7. Fahy, R.F., "EXIT89: An Evacuation Model for High-Rise Buildings," Pro ceedings of The Third International Sym posium on Fire Safety Science, 1991, pp. 815-823. 8. Thompson, P.A., and Marchant, E.W., "A Computer Model for the Evacuation of Large Building Populations," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 24, 1995, pp. 131-148. 9. Still, K., "New Computer System Can Predict Human Behavior Response to Building Fires," FIRE 84, 1993, pp. 40-41. 10. Ketchell, N., Cole, S.S., Webber, D.M., et.al., "The Egress Code for Human Move ment and Behavior in Emergency Evacu ations," Engineering for Crowd Safety (Smith, R.A., and Dickie, J.F., Eds.), Elsevier, 1993, pp. 361-370. 11. Takahashi, K., Tanaka, T. and Kose, S., "An Evacuation Model for Use in Fire Safety Design of Buildings," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 551- 560. 12. G2 Reference Manual, Version 3.0, Gensym Corporation, Cambridge, MA. 13. XVT Reference Manual, Version 3.0 XVT Software Inc., Boulder, CO. 14. Galea, E.R., "On the Field Modeling Approach to the Simulation of Enclosure Fires, Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1989, pp. 11-22. 15. Purser, D.A., "Toxicity Assessment of Combustion Products," SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 1-200 - 1-245, 1988. 16. Hankin, B.D., and Wright, R.A., "Pas senger Flows in Subways," Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 9, 1958, pp. 81-88. 17. HMSO, The Building Regulations 1991 - Approved Document B, section B 1 (1992 edition), HMSO publications, London, pp. 9-40. 18. Polus A., Schofer, J.L., and Ushpiz, A., "Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service," Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 109, 1983, pp. 46-47. 19. Muir, H., Marrison, C., and Evans, A., "Aircraft Evacuations: the Effect of Passenger Motivation and Cabin Con figuration Adjacent to the Exit," CAA Paper 89019, ISBN 0 86039 406 9, 1989. 20. Muir, H., Private communication to appear as a CAA report, 1996.

The role of evacuation and fire modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process and aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementaion of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost and risk involved in performing large-scale fire/evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Very Large Aircraft' (VLA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. By describing the present capabililties and limitations of the EXODUS evacuation model and associated fire models, this paper will examine the future development and data requirements of these models.

The role of evacuation modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitation of the air-EXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certificaiton trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. Finally, the data requirements of aircraft evacuation models is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the University of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

Case based adaptation using interpolation over nominal values

In this paper we propose a method for interpolation over a set of retrieved cases in the adaptation phase of the case-based reasoning cycle. The method has two advantages over traditional systems: the first is that it can predict “new” instances, not yet present in the case base; the second is that it can predict solutions not present in the retrieval set. The method is a generalisation of Shepard’s Interpolation method, formulated as the minimisation of an error function defined in terms of distance metrics in the solution and problem spaces. We term the retrieval algorithm the Generalised Shepard Nearest Neighbour (GSNN) method. A novel aspect of GSNN is that it provides a general method for interpolation over nominal solution domains. The method is illustrated in the paper with reference to the Irises classification problem. It is evaluated with reference to a simulated nominal value test problem, and to a benchmark case base from the travel domain. The algorithm is shown to out-perform conventional nearest neighbour methods on these problems. Finally, GSNN is shown to improve in efficiency when used in conjunction with a diverse retrieval algorithm.

The UK WTC 9/11 evacuation study: an overview of the methodologies employed and some analysis relating to fatigue, stair travel speeds and occupant response times

This paper briefly describes the methodologies employed in the collection and storage of first-hand accounts of evacuation experiences derived from face-to-face interviews with evacuees from the World Trade Center (WTC) Twin Towers complex on 11 September 2001 and the development of the High-rise Evacuation Evaluation Database (HEED). The main focus of the paper is to present an overview of preliminary analysis of data derived from the evacuation of the North Tower.