Statistical analysis of extreme forest fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper extreme wildland fires are analysed using a point process model for extremes. The model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach is adapted with maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Semi-Parametric Analysis of Extreme Forest Fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper incidences of extreme wildland fires are modelled by a point process model which incorporates time-trend. A model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach, which is very useful in exploratory analysis of changes in extremes, is illustrated with the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Towards the sustainable use of Europe’s forests: a centre for European forest science! – Some missing catalytic elements?

The Symposium, “Towards the sustainable use of Europe’s forests”, with sub-title “Forest ecosystem and landscape research: scientific challenges and opportunities” lists three fundamental substantive areas of research that are involved: Forest management and practices, Ecosystem processes and functional ecology, and Environmental economics and sociology. This paper argues that there are essential catalytic elements missing! Without these elements there is great danger that the aimed-for world leadership in the forest sciences will not materialize. What are the missing elements? All the sciences, and in particular biology, environmental sciences, sociology, economics, and forestry have evolved so that they include good scientific methodology. Good methodology is imperative in both the design and analysis of research studies, the management of research data, and in the interpretation of research finding. The methodological disciplines of Statistics, Modelling and Informatics (“SMI”) are crucial elements in a proposed Centre of European Forest Science, and the full involvement of professionals in these methodological disciplines is needed if the research of the Centre is to be world-class. Distributed Virtual Institute (DVI) for Statistics, Modelling and Informatics in Forestry and the Environment (SMIFE) is a consortium with the aim of providing world-class methodological support and collaboration to European research in the areas of Forestry and the Environment. It is suggested that DVI: SMIFE should be a formal partner in the proposed Centre for European Forest Science.

Tree species-area and species-diameter relationships at three lowland rain forest sites in Sumatra

Data from three forest sites in Sumatra (Batang Ule, Pasirmayang and Tebopandak) have been analysed and compared for the effects of sample area cut-off, and tree diameter cut-off. An 'extended inverted exponential model' is shown to be well suited to fitting tree-species-area curves. The model yields species carrying capacities of 680 for Batang Ule, 380 species for Pasirmayang, and 35 for Tebopandak (tree diameter >10cm). It would seem that in terms of species carrying capacity, Tebopandak and Pasirmayang are rather similar, and both less diverse than the hilly Batang Ule site. In terms of conservation policy, this would mean that rather more emphasis should be put on conserving hilly sites on a granite substratum. For Pasirmayang with tree diameter >3cm, the asymptotic species number estimate is 567, considerably higher than the estimate of 387 species for trees with diameter >10cm. It is clear that the diameter cut-off has a major impact on the estimate of the species carrying capacity. A conservative estimate of the total number of tree species in the Pasirmayang region is 632 species! In sampling exercises, the diameter cut-off should not be chosen lightly, and it may be worth adopting field sampling procedures which involve some subsampling of the primary sample area, where the diameter cut-off is set much lower than in the primary plots.