Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Measuring the comprehensibility of Z specifications

The effects of natural language comments, meaningful variable names, and structure on the comprehensibility of Z specifications are investigated through a designed experiment conducted with a range of undergraduate and post-graduate student subjects. The times taken on three assessment questions are analysed and related to the abilities of the students as indicated by their total score, with the result that stronger students need less time than weaker students to complete the assessment. Individual question scores, and total score, are then analysed and the influence of comments, naming, structure and level of student's class are determined. In the whole experimental group, only meaningful naming significantly enhances comprehension. In contrast, for those obtaining the best score of 3/3 the only significant factor is commenting. Finally, the subjects' ratings of the five specifications used in the study in terms of their perceived comprehensibility have been analysed. Comments, naming and structure are again found to be of importance in the group when analysed as a whole, but in the sub-group of best performing subjects only the comments had an effect on perceived comprehensibility.

Adult personality inconsistency and problems with parents: uncovering the roots of the false self

Research has established that individuals who tend to vary their personality depending on who they are with, show a variety of signs of psychological maladjustment in comparison to those who do not; they show more negative affect (Baird, Le and Lucas, 2006), lower life satisfaction (Suh, 2002), lower self-esteem (Sheldon et al., 1997), lower role-satisfaction (Donahue et al., 1993), higher rates of depression (Lutz and Ross, 2003), more anxiety (Diehl, Hastings and Stanton, 2001) and poorer physical health (Cross, Gore and Morris, 2003). It has also been shown that personality variability is positively related to the experience of inauthenticity and falsity (Sheldon et al., 1997). Donahue, Roberts, Robins and John (1993) found that personality inconsistency of this type is related to tension within the family. Psychoanalytic theory has also linked the operation of an adult false self to experiences with parents, particularly in early life (Winnicott, 1960). It was hypothesized that personality variability and the adult experience of falsity in social situations would be related to an emotionally unstable relationship with parents. The method to test this comprised a questionnaire-based survey given to a non-clinical population. The final sample comprised 305, with 193 women and 112 men, aged from 19 to 55. The first questionnaire asked participants to rate personality traits, including emotional stability, in three social contexts - with parents, with friends and with work colleagues. The second part involved 3 questions; participants were asked to select in which of the aforementioned three social contexts they felt “most themselves”; in which they were “most authentic” and in which they “put on a front”. It was found, consistent with predictions, that an index of overall personality variability calculated from the personality questionnaire correlated strongly with emotional instability around parents (r = 0.46, p<0.001), while not correlating with emotional instability in either of the other two contexts measured. This suggests a specific link between a person’s relationship with their parents and their overall personality integration. Furthermore, it was found that participants who cited one of the three social contexts (parents, friends, work colleagues) as being one in which they were “more themselves” or “more authentic” had significantly higher ratings of emotional instability with parents than those participants who found that they were equally authentic across settings (F = 9.8, p<0.005). The results suggest a clear link between a person’s relationships with their parents and their adult personality integration. An explanation is that individuals who experience an anxious or ambiguous attachment with their parents in childhood may fear rejection or abandonment in later life, and so habitually adapt their personality to fit in to social contexts as adults, in order to be accepted by others and to minimize the possibility of social rejection. These individuals meanwhile retain an emotionally unstable relationship with their parents in adulthood. This interpretation is speculative but is open to empirical testing. Clinicians should be aware that attachment problems with parents may underlie poor personality integration in adulthood.

The effects of cadence and power output upon physiological and biomechanical responses to incremental arm-crank ergometry

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of cadence and power output on physiological and biomechanical responses to incremental arm-crank ergometry (ACE). Ten male subjects (mean +/- SD age, 30.4 +/-5.4 y; height, 1.78 +/-0.07 m; mass, 86.1 +/-14.2 kg) undertook 3 incremental ACE protocols to determine peak oxygen uptake (VO2 peak; mean of 3 tests: 3.07 +/- 0.17 L.min-1) at randomly assigned cadences of 50, 70, or 90 r.min-1. Heart rate and expired air were continually monitored. Central (RPE-C) and local (RPE-L) ratings of perceived exertion were recorded at volitional exhaustion. Joint angles and trunk rotation were analysed during each exercise stage. During submaximal power outputs of 50, 70, and 90 W, oxygen consumption (VO2) was lowest for 50 r.min-1 and highest for 90 r.min-1 (p < 0.01). VO2 peak was lowest during 50 r.min-1 (2.79 +/-0.45 L.min-1; p < 0.05) when compared with both 70 r.min-1 and 90 r.min-1 (3.16 +/-0.58, 3.24 +/-0.49 L.min-1, respectively; p > 0.05). The difference between RPE-L and RPE-C at volitional exhaustion was greatest during 50 r.min-1 (2.9 +/- 1.6) when compared with 90 r.min-1 (0.9 +/- 1.9, p < 0.05). At VO2 peak, shoulder range of motion (ROM) and trunk rotation were greater for 50 and 70 r.min-1 when compared with 90 r.min-1 (p < 0.05). During submaximal power outputs, shoulder angle and trunk rotation were greatest at 50 r.min-1 when compared with 90 r.min-1 (p < 0.05). VO2 was inversely related to both trunk rotation and shoulder ROM during submaximal power outputs. The results of this study suggest that the greater forces required at lower cadences to produce a given power output resulted in greater joint angles and range of shoulder and trunk movement. Greater isometric contractions for torso stabilization and increased cost of breathing possibly from respiratory-locomotor coupling may have contributed increased oxygen consumption at higher cadences.