Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements

Most of the air quality modelling work has been so far oriented towards deterministic simulations of ambient pollutant concentrations. This traditional approach, which is based on the use of one selected model and one data set of discrete input values, does not reflect the uncertainties due to errors in model formulation and input data. Given the complexities of urban environments and the inherent limitations of mathematical modelling, it is unlikely that a single model based on routinely available meteorological and emission data will give satisfactory short-term predictions. In this study, different methods involving the use of more than one dispersion model, in association with different emission simulation methodologies and meteorological data sets, were explored for predicting best CO and benzene estimates, and related confidence bounds. The different approaches were tested using experimental data obtained during intensive monitoring campaigns in busy street canyons in Paris, France. Three relative simple dispersion models (STREET, OSPM and AEOLIUS) that are likely to be used for regulatory purposes were selected for this application. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to identify internal model parameters that might significantly affect results. Finally, a probabilistic methodology for assessing urban air quality was proposed.

A comprehensive copper stockpile leach model: background and parameter sensitivity

The design and development of a comprehensive computational model of a copper stockpile leach process is summarized. The computational fluid dynamic software framework PHYSICA+ and various phenomena were used to model transport phenomena, mineral reaction kinetics, bacterial effects, and heat, energy and acid balances for the overall leach process. In this paper, the performance of the model is investigated, in particular its sensitvity to particle size and ore permeability. A combination of literature and laboratory sources was used to parameterize the model. The simulation results from the leach model are compared with closely controlled column pilot scale tests. The main performance characteristics (e.g. copper recovery rate) predicted by the model compare reasonably well with the experimental data and clearly reflect the qualitiative behavior of the process in many respects. The model is used to provide a measure of the sensitivity of ore permeability on leach behavior, and simulation results are examined for several different particle size distributions.

Model-based pilot and data power adaptation in psam with periodic delayed feedback

We consider the optimum design of pilot-symbol-assisted modulation (PSAM) schemes with feedback. The received signal is periodically fed back to the transmitter through a noiseless delayed link and the time-varying channel is modeled as a Gauss-Markov process. We optimize a lower bound on the channel capacity which incorporates the PSAM parameters and Kalman-based channel estimation and prediction. The parameters available for the capacity optimization are the data power adaptation strategy, pilot spacing and pilot power ratio, subject to an average power constraint. Compared to the optimized open-loop PSAM (i.e., the case where no feedback is provided from the receiver), our results show that even in the presence of feedback delay, the optimized power adaptation provides higher information rates at low signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) in medium-rate fading channels. However, in fast fading channels, even the presence of modest feedback delay dissipates the advantages of power adaptation.

Further validation of the buildingEXODUS evacuation model using the Tsukuba dataset

In this paper, the buildingEXODUS (V1.1) evacuation model is described and discussed and attempts at qualitative and quantitative model validation are presented. The data set used for the validation is the Tsukuba pavilion evacuation data. This data set is of particular interest as the evacuation was influenced by external conditions, namely inclement weather. As part of the validation exercise, the sensitivity of the buildingEXODUS predictions to a range of variables and conditions is examined, including; exit flow capacity, occupant response times and the impact of external conditions on the developing evacuation. The buildingEXODUS evacuation model was found to be able to produce good qualitative and quantitative agreement with the experimental data.

Validation of the buildingEXODUS Evacuation Model

In this paper, the buildingEXODUS (V1.1) evacuation model is described and discussed and attempts at qualitative and quantitative model validation are presented. The data sets used for validation are the Stapelfeldt and Milburn House evacuation data. As part of the validation exercise, the sensitivity of the buildingEXODUS predictions to a range of variables is examined, including: occupant drive, occupant location, exit flow capacity, exit size, occupant response times and geometry definition. An important consideration that has been highlighted by this work is that any validation exercise must be scrutinised to identify both the results generated and the considerations and assumptions on which they are based. During the course of the validation exercise, both data sets were found to be less than ideal for the purpose of validating complex evacuation models. However, the buildingEXODUS evacuation model was found to be able to produce reasonable qualitative and quantitative agreement with the experimental data.

A systematic comparison of model predictions produced by the buildingExodus evacuation model and the Tsukuba Pavilion evacuation data

In this article, the buildingEXODUS (V1.1) evacuation model is described and discussed and attempts at qualitative and quantitative model validation are presented. The data set used for the validation is the Tsukuba pavilion evacuation data. This data set is of particular interest as the evacuation was influenced by external conditions, namely inclement weather. As part of the validation exercise, the sensitivity of the buildingEXODUS predictions to a range of variables and conditions is examined, including: exit flow capacity, occupant response times, and the impact of external conditions on the developing evacuation. The buildingEXODUS evacuation model was found to produce good qualitative and quantitative agreement with the experimental data.

The relationship between disgust sensitivity, anxiety and obsessions

Three hundred participants, including volunteers from an obsessional support group, filled in questionnaires relating to disgust sensitivity, health anxiety, anxiety, fear of death, fear of contamination and obsessionality as part of an investigation into the involvement of disgust sensitivity in types of obsessions. Overall, the data supported the hypothesis that a relationship does exist between disgust sensitivity and the targeted variables. A significant predictive relationship was found between disgust sensitivity and total scores on the obsessive compulsive inventory (OCI; Psychological Assessment 10 (1998) 206) for both frequency and distress of symptomatology. Disgust sensitivity scores were significantly related to health anxiety scores and general anxiety scores and to all the obsessional subscales, with the exception of hoarding. Additionally, multiple regression analyses revealed that disgust sensitivity may be more specifically related to washing compulsions: frequency of washing behaviour was best predicted by disgust sensitivity scores. Washing distress scores were best predicted by health anxiety scores, though disgust sensitivity entered in the second model. It is suggested that further research on the relationship between disgust sensitivity and obsessionality could be helpful in refining the theoretical understanding of obsessions.

Parallel implementation of the recurrence method for computing the power-spectral density of thin avalanche photodiodes

A simulation program has been developed to calculate the power-spectral density of thin avalanche photodiodes, which are used in optical networks. The program extends the time-domain analysis of the dead-space multiplication model to compute the autocorrelation function of the APD impulse response. However, the computation requires a large amount of memory space and is very time consuming. We describe our experiences in parallelizing the code using both MPI and OpenMP. Several array partitioning schemes and scheduling policies are implemented and tested Our results show that the OpenMP code is scalable up to 64 processors on an SGI Origin 2000 machine and has small average errors.

Reliability analysis for power electronics modules

This paper discusses the reliability of power electronics modules. The approach taken combines numerical modeling techniques with experimentation and accelerated testing to identify failure modes and mechanisms for the power module structure and most importantly the root cause of a potential failure. The paper details results for two types of failure (i) wire bond fatigue and (ii) substrate delamination. Finite element method modeling techniques have been used to predict the stress distribution within the module structures. A response surface optimisation approach has been employed to enable the optimal design and parameter sensitivity to be determined. The response surface is used by a Monte Carlo method to determine the effects of uncertainty in the design.

Predicting the reliability of power electronic modules

This paper discusses the reliability of an IGBT power electronics module. This work is part of a major UK funded initiative into the design, packaging and reliability of power electronic modules. The predictive methodology combines numerical modeling techniques with experimentation and accelerated testing to identify failure modes and mechanisms for these type of power electronic module structures. The paper details results for solder joint failure substrate solder. Finite element method modeling techniques have been used to predict the stress and strain distribution within the module structures. Together with accelerated life testing, these results have provided a failure model for these joints which has been used to predict reliability of a rail traction application

Optimizing the reliability of power electronics module isolation substrates

Optimal design of a power electronics module isolation substrate is assessed using a combination of finite element structural mechanics analysis and response surface optimisation technique. Primary failure modes in power electronics modules include the loss of structural integrity in the ceramic substrate materials due to stresses induced through thermal cycling. Analysis of the influence of ceramic substrate design parameters is undertaken using a design of experiments approach. Finite element analysis is used to determine the stress distribution for each design, and the results are used to construct a quadratic response surface function. A particle swarm optimisation algorithm is then used to determine the optimal substrate design. Analysis of response surface function gradients is used to perform sensitivity analysis and develop isolation substrate design rules. The influence of design uncertainties introduced through manufacturing tolerances is assessed using a Monte-Carlo algorithm, resulting in a stress distribution histogram. The probability of failure caused by the violation of design constraints has been analyzed. Six geometric design parameters are considered in this work and the most important design parameters have been identified. Overall analysis results can be used to enhance the design and reliability of the component.

A prognostic assessment method for power electronics modules

This paper describes a prognostic method which combines the physics of failure models with probability reasoning algorithm. The measured real time data (temperature vs. time) was used as the loading profile for the PoF simulations. The response surface equation of the accumulated plastic strain in the solder interconnect in terms of two variables (average temperature, and temperature amplitude) was constructed. This response surface equation was incorporated into the lifetime model of solder interconnect, and therefore the remaining life time of the solder component under current loading condition was predicted. The predictions from PoF models were also used to calculate the conditional probability table for a Bayesian Network, which was used to take into account of the impacts of the health observations of each product in lifetime prediction. The prognostic prediction in the end was expressed as the probability for the product to survive the expected future usage. As a demonstration, this method was applied to an IGBT power module used for aircraft applications.

Computer simulation of aluminium wirebonds with globtop in power electronics modules

In this paper, computer modelling techniques are used to analyse the effects of globtops on the reliability of aluminium wirebonds in power electronics modules under cyclic thermal-mechanical loading conditions. The sensitivity of the wirehond reliability to the changes of the geometric and the material property parameters of wirebond globtop are evaluated and the optimal combination of the Young's modulus and the coefficient of thermal expansion have been predicted.

Dynamic model for metal cleanness evaluation by melting in a cold crucible

Melting of metallic samples in a cold crucible causes inclusions to concentrate on the surface owing to the action of the electromagnetic force in the skin layer. This process is dynamic, involving the melting stage, then quasi-stationary particle separation, and finally the solidification in the cold crucible. The proposed modeling technique is based on the pseudospectral solution method for coupled turbulent fluid flow, thermal and electromagnetic fields within the time varying fluid volume contained by the free surface, and partially the solid crucible wall. The model uses two methods for particle tracking: (1) a direct Lagrangian particle path computation and (2) a drifting concentration model. Lagrangian tracking is implemented for arbitrary unsteady flow. A specific numerical time integration scheme is implemented using implicit advancement that permits relatively large time-steps in the Lagrangian model. The drifting concentration model is based on a local equilibrium drift velocity assumption. Both methods are compared and demonstrated to give qualitatively similar results for stationary flow situations. The particular results presented are obtained for iron alloys. Small size particles of the order of 1 μm are shown to be less prone to separation by electromagnetic field action. In contrast, larger particles, 10 to 100 μm, are easily “trapped” by the electromagnetic field and stay on the sample surface at predetermined locations depending on their size and properties. The model allows optimization for melting power, geometry, and solidification rate.

Modelling of jet-impingement cooling for power electronics

The use of an innovative jet impingement cooling system in a power electronics application is investigated using numerical analysis. The jet impingement system, outlined by Skuriat et al, consists of a series of cells each containing an array of holes. Cooling fluid is forced through the device, forming an array of impingement jets. The jets are arranged in a manner, which induces a high degree of mixing in the interface boundary layer. This increase in turbulent mixing is intended to induce higher Nusselt numbers and effective heat transfer coefficients. Enhanced cooling efficiency enables the power electronics module to operate at a lower temperature, greatly enhancing long-term reliability. The results obtained through numerical modelling deviates markedly from the experimentally derived data. The disparity is most likely due to the turbulence model selected and further analysis is required, involving evaluation of more advanced turbulence models.