Deforestation and the spatio-temporal distribution of savannah and forest members of the Simulium damnosum complex in southern Ghana and south-western Togo

Spatio-temporal data on cytotaxonomic identifications of larvae of different members of the Simulium damnosum complex collected from rivers in southern Ghana and south-western Togo from 1975 until 1997 were analysed. When the data were combined, the percentages of savannah blackflies (S. damnosum sensu stricto and S. sirbanum) in the samples were shown to have been progressively increasing since 1975. The increases were statistically significant (P < 0·001), but the rates of increase were not linear. Further analyses were conducted according to the collection seasons and locations of the samples, to account for possible biases such as savannah flies occurring further south in the dry season or a preponderance of later samples from northern rivers having more savannah flies. These analyses showed that the increasing trend was statistically significant (P< 0·0001) only during the periods April to June and October to December. The presence of adult savannah flies carrying infective larvae (L3) indistinguishable from those of Onchocerca volvulus in the study zone was confirmed by examinations of captured flies. The percentages of savannah flies amongst the human-biting populations and the percentages with L3s in the head were higher during dry seasons than wet seasons and the savannah species were found furthest south (5 °25′N) in the dry season. Comparisons of satellite images taken in 1973 and 1990 over a study area in south-western Ghana encompassing stretches of the Tano and Bia rivers demonstrated that there have been substantial increases in urban and savannah areas, at the expense of forest. This was so not only for the whole images but also for subsamples of the images taken at 1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 km distant from sites alongside the River Tano. At every distance from the river, the percentages of pixels classified as urban or savannah have increased in 1990 compared with 1973, while those classified as degraded or dense forest have decreased. The possibility that the proportionate increases in savannah forms of the vectors of onchocerciasis, and hence in the likelihood of the transmission of savannah strains of the disease in formerly forested areas, were related to the decreases in forest cover is discussed.

A new parameterization of Johnson's SB distribution with application to fitting forest tree diameter data

The SB distributional model of Johnson's 1949 paper was introduced by a transformation to normality, that is, z ~ N(0, 1), consisting of a linear scaling to the range (0, 1), a logit transformation, and an affine transformation, z = γ + δu. The model, in its original parameterization, has often been used in forest diameter distribution modelling. In this paper, we define the SB distribution in terms of the inverse transformation from normality, including an initial linear scaling transformation, u = γ′ + δ′z (δ′ = 1/δ and γ′ = �γ/δ). The SB model in terms of the new parameterization is derived, and maximum likelihood estimation schema are presented for both model parameterizations. The statistical properties of the two alternative parameterizations are compared empirically on 20 data sets of diameter distributions of Changbai larch (Larix olgensis Henry). The new parameterization is shown to be statistically better than Johnson's original parameterization for the data sets considered here.

Tree diameter distribution modelling: introducing the logitlogistic distribution

Johnson's SB distribution is a four-parameter distribution that is transformed into a normal distribution by a logit transformation. By replacing the normal distribution of Johnson's SB with the logistic distribution, we obtain a new distributional model that approximates SB. It is analytically tractable, and we name it the "logitlogistic" (LL) distribution. A generalized four-parameter Weibull model and the Burr XII model are also introduced for comparison purposes. Using the distribution "shape plane" (with axes skew and kurtosis) we compare the "coverage" properties of the LL, the generalized Weibull, and the Burr XII with Johnson's SB, the beta, and the three-parameter Weibull, the main distributions used in forest modelling. The LL is found to have the largest range of shapes. An empirical case study of the distributional models is conducted on 107 sample plots of Chinese fir. The LL performs best among the four-parameter models.

Second language processing: an analysis of theory, problems and possible solutions

Second Language Processing examines the problems facing learners in the second language classroom from the theoretical perspectives of Processing Instruction (structured input) and Enhanced Input. These two theories are brought to bear on a variety of processing problems, such as the difficulty of connecting second language grammatical forms encoding tense and mood as well as noun-adjective agreement with their meaning. Empirical studies examine a range of languages including Japanese, Italian and Spanish, through which the authors suggest practical solutions to these processing problems.